Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

I agree with much of your criticism of voters who regret their VVD vote all the time but suddenly start supporting the VVD again in the campaign when they talk about their plans, of course, but the PVV are to blame here too (and I ended up voting for them, mind you). First,  they didn't do sh**t to attract swing voters in the campaign: only their base turned out for them. Second, and most importantly, they have become completely uncoalitionable due to the way Rutte-I collapsed and the way they turned to the right afterwards. The PVV are to blame too. Perhaps the VVD would not be forming a government with GL (which I'm still not sure will happen, but a government with CU wouldn't be that different anyway) if the option with the PVV were still on the table.

I really think that there will be a stumbling block that allows Klaver to walk away from the deal though.

I still expect this to happen too.

[SunSt0rm]

Wilders should be blamed for his result by performing one of the worst campaign ever. He placed himself out the government by his ridiculous A4 program and ruling out the VVD under Rutte. Most centre right voters are happy by this result as thanks to his abysmal campaign the centre right (VVD+CDA+D66+CU) can govern without the left or the far right. Talks with the GL will (a bit unfortunately) probably fail in the coming weeks.

[DavidB.]

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).

[Klartext89]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

I agree with much of your criticism of voters who regret their VVD vote all the time but suddenly start supporting the VVD again in the campaign when they talk about their plans, of course, but the PVV are to blame here too (and I ended up voting for them, mind you). First,  they didn't do sh**t to attract swing voters in the campaign: only their base turned out for them. Second, and most importantly, they have become completely uncoalitionable due to the way Rutte-I collapsed and the way they turned to the right afterwards. The PVV are to blame too. Perhaps the VVD would not be forming a government with GL (which I'm still not sure will happen, but a government with CU wouldn't be that different anyway) if the option with the PVV were still on the table.

I always said that leaving Rutte-I was the dumbest thing to do but I wasn't talking about that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).

David, please start your own testimonial party for gay Zionists.

[Lord Halifax]

I'm not a voter in that category, but I don't disagree with your analysis.

Btw for those who wonder, I ended up voting PVV over FvD after being undecided until 6PM on election day because FvD don't have positions on a lot of issues yet, including stuff related to Israel, and I wanted to know what I voted for (with the PVV at least I know what I'm going to disagree with; nothing related to Israel), because I wanted to vote for Gidi Markuszower more than for Theo Hiddema, and because I didn't think I had any right to complain about the PVV's underperformance if I didn't vote for them myself. I also thought they "deserved" my vote after being right on so many issues for ten years in my opinion, even if I've disagreed with some things, their campaign was sh**t and they had no chance of being in the government. Let's say it was a sincere vote for a testimonial party. It's probably been the last time I voted for them though, at least on the national level (though I may still vote for them in European elections).

David, please start your own testimonial party for gay Zionists.

That might be too small a base for a party.. even in the Netherlands.

[mvd10]

The formation talks on Thursday were cancelled because Klaver's mother is seriously ill. Bram van Ojik replaced Klaver on Wednesday and made a painful mistake: he accidentally showed a formation document and journalists were able to take pictures (the same thing that happened to Kobach in the US). If you zoom in you can read something about the threat that drones represent, a picture of Putin and the words ''dreigingsbeeld defensie'' (translates into something like national security threats). There was nothing huge in it, but it still is a blunder for someone as experienced as van Ojik.

Van Ojik might actually have a chance to be our next foreign minister lol. GroenLinks probably will demand heavy concessions and top cabinet jobs and van Ojik is one of their most prominent politicians (he was their leader from 2012 to 2015). Foreign policy is his area of expertise, he used to be a diplomat. I really hope that won't happen. He probably is better than most GL politicians on foreign policy, but that doesn't say much. I don't think he will become foreign affairs minister though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

[mvd10]

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

You mean a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition? I still think the most likely scenario is that the talks collapse in a couple of weeks and a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet will be formed, but I wouldn't be surprised anymore if we actually end up with VVD-CDA-D66-GL.

[Angel of Death]

The very fact that a coalition with the CU is possible weakens GroenLinks's negotiation position and only makes it further likely that the talks will fail. Chances are that this is all still for show and is taking place mostly to mollify D66.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

moar maps...

[jeron]

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

You mean a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition? I still think the most likely scenario is that the talks collapse in a couple of weeks and a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet will be formed, but I wouldn't be surprised anymore if we actually end up with VVD-CDA-D66-GL.

 a coalition with GL is probably more likely than a coalition with CU at the moment. D66 will do everything to keep GL in these talks and prevent a coalition with CU. if the talks with GL do fail, it will take many more months to form a government with CU (or another party).

[mvd10]

And we got ourselves another VVD scandal:

VVD chairman Henry Keizer apparently bought a company for 12.5 million euros (in 2012) while it was worth more than 30 million euros. Keizer was advisor of the association that owned the company at that time. The biggest part of the acquisition (12 million euros) was financed by dividends that would have been paid out to the company anyway, so Keizer actually only paid 500.000 euros for the company. To make things even worse: 2 other VVD politicians also were involved (Loek Hermans, who else?) since they were members of the supervisory board. As I already said one of them was Loek Hermans who stepped down as VVD senate leader in 2015 because of another scandal (mismanagement at a health care company where he was the chair of the supervisory board), but he remains very close to PM Rutte.

Keizer says everything was perfectly legal and for now the VVD doesn't see any reason to force him out.

Since 2008 21 VVD politicians have been convicted vs 5 for the PvdA and 3 for the CDA. I think the VVD will remain in power for a few extra years, but I'm afraid they will suffer a CDA 2010-like defeat when Rutte steps down as leader.

[DavidB.]

You never know, but I'm not really afraid of that (and I do want the VVD to remain the largest party). There was a type of CDA fatigue among right-wing voters that just isn't there yet with the VVD, and the VVD fit the average Dutch right-wing voter much better than was the case for the CDA in 2010. The corruption scandals are usually seen as incidents, not as part of a pattern -- and those who do view it as a pattern (the people in the comment sections of prominent news websites come to mind) are unlikely to vote VVD in the first place. All this may change, of course, but the corruption stuff has been going on for years already and I don't think the VVD have become less popular than in 2014 or so.

Meanwhile, the four parties at the negotiating table have decided to take an 11-day break -- not because of incompabilities but because of the fact that the campaign season has taken a big toll on all the party leaders. Informateur Schippers said that she is optimistic but that the talks could still go wrong too.

[DavidB.]

Geert Wilders is already campaigning for the 2018 local elections and tweeted a picture of the huge Essalam mosque with the text: "The PVV Rotterdam will -- as opposed to that coward [Leefbaar alderman] Joost Eerdmans who is sitting on [PvdA mayor] Aboutaleb's lap -- do everything to close the Essalam mosque!" Leefbaar Rotterdam is the largest party in Rotterdam, leading a coalition with CDA and D66; the PVV will mainly be targeting Leefbaar voters. In the past, Eerdmans and Wilders had a good relationship, but these days are clearly over now. Leefbaar is much more moderate than the PVV and does not oppose the existence of the Assalam mosque.

Meanwhile, in The Hague, the VVD have made a sharp turn to the left and have been pretty explicit about this. They will focus on more public transit and the environment. "You can call it the new VVD", local party leader Boudewijn Revis said. In 2014, the VVD The Hague went from 7 to 4 out of 45 seats with a clearly right-wing manifesto, though I think their loss was mainly caused by the unpopularity of the national government. A lot of their former voters went to D66, the largest party in The Hague; it seems they want to win back these voters.

[SunSt0rm]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

[jeron]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

[Zanas]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

Is VVD-CDA-D66-CU no longer an alternative option ?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, it seems VVD-CDA-D66-GL is really going to happen. The option with CU only has 76 seats; given that splitoffs have become common and Rutte is tired of constantly having to strike deals with opposition parties, which he has had to do for the last seven years, it seems he now simply wants a stable majority government. People currently seem to be tired of politics and there has been little media attention for the formation process, but that will surely change once the final deal is known.

[SunSt0rm]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

Is VVD-CDA-D66-CU no longer an alternative option ?

Just a slight majority. Also some rumors says Pechtold (D66) has vetoed that option. Moreover, according to some VVD prominents there is not much difference between CU and GL on environment and immigration issues, which are the main obstacles now anyways.

Although I am not sold yet that VVD-CDA-D66-GL is going to happen

[DavidB.]

News: "green issues" cause difficulties at the negotiating table, particularly because of the extreme gap between CDA on the one hand and GL/D66 on the other hand. Flexible as always, Rutte is inclined to seek and accept compromises, but Buma continues to sell Pechtold and Klaver a "nay". While the VVD will be highly visible in the next government with Rutte as PM, the CDA will be in a more difficult electoral position and their voters strongly oppose packaging taxes, meat taxes, flight taxes and the like. And while the environment and climate change have never been as prominently featured in election campaigns as this year, the CDA were among the few parties that chose not to prioritize this issue. Buma can afford saying "no" because it is almost impossible to think of a properly functioning government that does not include the CDA.

[DL]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

[DavidB.]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

It will depend on the content of the final deal, but given the fact that governing in the Netherlands appears to come at an especially high price even compared to other European countries and that GL will have the least influence of all government parties, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened pretty soon.

[Former President tack50]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

Who would replace them, like they replaced PvdA? D66? PvdA rises again? A new party that follows the same fate? SP?

[DavidB.]

If GL joins this coalition, how long before their support in the polls inevitably crashes into low single digits (the fate that seems to befall all parties that agree to be junior partners in coalition governments)

Who would replace them, like they replaced PvdA? D66? PvdA rises again? A new party that follows the same fate? SP?

Way too early to say, but after the SP's terrible electoral performance after five years of VVD-PvdA austerity I wouldn't place any bets on them. Common sense dictates that at least the PvdD should profit in case GL become unpopular with their voters.