Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

Wouldn't be surprised if the PvdA change their minds. But I agree, a minority coalition seems the most likely option now. Disappointed with D66 and their attitude. Would be great if a VVD-CDA minority government without D66 were an option, but alas... Though not completely impossible if D66 are too scared to govern without a party to their left.

[jeron]

Wouldn't be surprised if the PvdA change their minds. But I agree, a minority coalition seems the most likely option now.

PvdA will change its mind eventually,  but just not yet. D66 is not too keen on a minority government with VVD and CDA either considering the disaster the 2003-2006 coalition was for D66. In the end, CU was not rejected because of political differences, but because D66 wants another progressive party in this coalition.

[DavidB.]

In the end, CU was not rejected because of political differences, but because D66 wants another progressive party in this coalition.

Yes, I tend to agree with this point of view. But I don't know if the PvdA will change their minds. It would simply be too foolish for them to enter the government with three economically right-wing parties... but then again, this is the PvdA we're talking about.

VVD-CDA-D66, VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA and VVD-CDA seem to be the three possibilities now.

[Diouf]

How many parties would accept such a minority government? I guess PVV and GL will try to position themselves as opposition leaders on either side of the government. The SP would not support such a shamelessly capitalist government. So my guess would be PvdA, CU and SGP. Do you think any of the other small parties would accept it, perhaps 50PLUS?

[TheSaint250]

Why is PvdA not getting involved? I get that they have a small number of government officials now, but anything helps.

I'd been wondering this, especially since they were part of the last government.

[DavidB.]

Why is PvdA not getting involved? I get that they have a small number of government officials now, but anything helps.

I'd been wondering this, especially since they were part of the last government.

They just lost 29 seats and reached an all-time low with only 9 seats because of their government participation with the VVD. Entering a new government led by Mark Rutte with three economically right-wing parties wouldn't exactly be a popular move (governing certainly doesn't "help" here), and they wouldn't achieve much either.

[mvd10]

Why is PvdA not getting involved? I get that they have a small number of government officials now, but anything helps.

I'd been wondering this, especially since they were part of the last government.

Because it would be complete suicide for them. They used to be one of the big three (CDA-PvdA-VVD) or actually big two (CDA-PvdA) because Rutte is the first VVD PM and now they are down to 9 seats. They do have a chance at a comeback if they go in opposition to a right-wing cabinet and everyone forgets the VVD-PvdA coalition but if they join VVD-CDA-D66 they will be PASOKified forever imo.

[Zinneke]

Why is PvdA not getting involved? I get that they have a small number of government officials now, but anything helps.

I'd been wondering this, especially since they were part of the last government.

Its an interesting point to note that there used to be certain norms in Lowland politics that made a multiparty system work. One of them is, as pointed out above, not letting in parties that got wiped out into government (PvdA) ahead of parties that gained massively (PVV). Also, at the beginning CU passed up the opportunity to negotiate with VVD-CDA-D66 before GL, because they had not won any seats.

These norms seem to have weakened since the disastrous LPF then PVV experiences in government, but traces of them remain. Letting PvdA into government even if they wanted to would be bad for VVD and CDA in particular.

[Kamala]

If no government is formed and elections are called again, who stands to benefit? VVD, I assume? Would the PVV be poised to lose seats as well, seeing as it missed its mark of gaining a substantial amount of seats in 2017?

[mvd10]

I'm not really sure whether the VVD would really benefit. The Turkey row boosted PM Rutte's image, but I don't think the VVD will get lucky again (they still would have won without the Turkey row, but at 26-30 seats instead of 33). The only pollster which has released post-election polls is peil.nl and their polls show only very small differences with the election result (VVD is one seat down).

But I wouldn't be surprised if the VVD gets blamed for the formation failure, they're the largest party after all. D66's refusal to join a coalition with CU might hurt them in the elections if new elections really are the result of this formation. But this is just pure speculation. A minority cabinet probably is more likely than new elections.

And a minority cabinet can be quite stable. They work in other countries and the last cabinet (VVD-PvdA) was a minority cabinet in all but name. They didn't have a majority in the senate so they still had to negotiate with other parties (mainly D66, CU and SGP).

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos has also polled after the election, and their poll forcast a complete collapse of the left (for not so much reason). But even if this is the result, it won't change much as VVD-CDA-D66 won't have a majority as well




http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/ipsos-politieke-barometer/barometer-van-deze-week


 

[mvd10]

And don't forget the senate. The next government still needs a majority in the senate or it'll just be a de facto minority cabinet. And VVD-CDA-D66 has 35 seats in the senate (out of 75).

And lol FvD. VVD-CDA-D66-FvD is at 79 seats in the poll. That actually would be a great cabinet, but it doesn't have a majority in the senate and I can't see FvD joining a cabinet with D66 (tbh I can't see them joining a cabinet at all).

[DavidB.]

So it remains unclear what will happen now. Klaver says he is willing to negotiate with VVD and CDA again, but only if they accept his demands on migration. VVD and CDA, in turn, say that they are willing to negotiate with GL, but only if he doesn't demand things beforehand and everything is on the table. Rutte therefore prefers not to negotiate with GL anymore and instead wants CU (though it's clear D66 are the problem here), SP or PvdA to change their minds. D66 are willing to negotiate with all non-small parties (this apparently still includes the PvdA) except for PVV and CU now; their exclusion of CU seems ridiculous and petty to me.

Schippers will present a new advise on Monday; on Tuesday there will be a parliamentary debate on the next steps in the formation.

[DC Al Fine]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

[DavidB.]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

As an arch-secular party of the "current year", D66 have a special antipathy to the Christian parties; the party more so than its electorate, even if D66 voters may also be inclined to dislike Christian parties and their policies. But the main issue here is that D66 don't want to be in a government without a party to their left also being part of that government: they fear the electoral consequences of doing so. The VVD-CDA-D66-CU combination would be especially problematic to them, because CU would block all their "progressive crown jewels", such as drug legalization (also opposed by CDA and VVD, but not as strongly) and assisted suicide for people who are not ill. So it's a bit of both.

[jeron]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

Governing with VVD, CDA and CU would be political suicide for D66, just like governing with VVD without other parties was a disaster for PvdA.

[DavidB.]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

Governing with VVD, CDA and CU would be political suicide for D66, just like governing with VVD without other parties was a disaster for PvdA.

See also the CDU/CSU-FDP and Tory-Lib Dem coalitions.

[DavidB.]

Schippers made her final report to parliament and does not want to be informateur again. She recommends that Herman Tjeenk Willink, the architect of Purple-I (PvdA-VVD-D66) in 1994 and informateur for both Purple Plus (VVD-PvdA-D66-GL) and VVD-CDA-PVV in 2010, be appointed the new informateur.

[mvd10]

I'll miss you Edith. Too bad you weren't the one to break that glass ceiling .

I wonder what the "movements" Schippers talked about a few days ago are. Probably not with CU since D66 violently killed that option. Not SP either because that's just not going to happen. Probably also not a minority cabinet, if they wanted one they would have started negotiations on it by now. So either PvdA or GL. PvdA denied it a million times, but more and more completely irrelevant 70 year old third way former PvdA politicians are saying that they should, so maybe they'll do it because of patriotism™. I still don't think it's likely though.

GL says they want to restart negotiations if VVD and CDA move closer to their position on immigration. Their position basically is to take in all refugees if a new refugee stream emerges instead of making deals like the Turkey deal with African countries. If VVD and CDA agree to this and a new refugee stream emerges they are screwed. But if this is the price for a new cabinet they might just do it. Or maybe GL decided to soften their stance on immigration, but they're in a fairly strong position right now. Anyway, I think a minority cabinet and VVD-CDA-D66-GL are the most likely options now. Usually irritating little children who obstruct everything because they didn't get their cookie don't get rewarded for their behaviour, but Pechtold may very well become an exception to that rule.

[DavidB.]

Schippers would have made a fantastic Prime Minister of VVD-PVV-CDA in a timeline where Wilders didn't go crazy.

A coalition with GL still seems unlikely to me but perhaps that's just my aversion to this option talking. Klaver hasn't exactly made it easier for Rutte and Buma by explicitly saying they have to accept his migration policies, which would of course be incredibly unpopular with right-wing voters. I also think D66 don't "deserve" it after dismissing the option with CU. I'm hoping for the option with the PvdA now, or for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. No idea what would be most likely now.

[mvd10]

Those PvdA pundits are really annoying btw. There must be thousands of them. At this stage there probably are more PvdA pundits than PvdA voters.

[DavidB.]

Those PvdA pundits are really annoying btw. There must be thousands of them. At this stage there probably are more PvdA pundits than PvdA voters.

Fortunately most of them are only on tv. Glad I don't have one.

[DavidB.]

Minister of State Herman Tjeenk Willink is the new informateur: only PVV (opposed to appointing a PvdA member informateur) and FvD (calling Tjeenk Willink the "cartel cardinal") voted against his appointment. Harsh words from Rutte and especially Buma to Pechtold, whose unconstructive attitude in the "pre-negotiations" with CU prevented a serious formation attempt from taking place. Asscher keeps trying to make a new round of negotiations with GL happen. Roemer still wants a government without the VVD, but in a particularly heated debate between Buma and Roemer, in which both leaders clearly annoyed one another, it became evident that Buma has no interest in a center-left coalition of "Buma and the seven dwarves", a phrase Roemer took offense with.

[DavidB.]

The Senate today approved of the Association Agreement with Ukraine despite the referendum result. A clear majority VVD, PvdA, D66, GL, CU, SGP, 9 out of 12 CDA senators and an independent eventually voted in favor of the treaty; PVV, SP, 50Plus, PvdD and 3 CDA senators opposed it.

[DavidB.]

The new informateur Herman Tjeenk Willink has been much more blunt than Schippers: instead of carefully grouping together politicians who may eventually agree, Tjeenk Willink has outlined the problems that, according to him, need to be solved most urgently: first the climate ("to prevent natural catastrophes"), second growing inequality ("not only about income figures, but also about recognition for your work and living in dignity"), and third immigration ("if we don't choose, Merkel and Macron will choose for us"). Media are acting as if he's being independent but I do get the impression that his personal views shine through here, but perhaps this approach works better than Schippers'. Tjeenk Willink's idea is to talk policy without negotiating and, on the way, find ways to bridge the differences. He will do so with VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. By doing so, the most viable combination of parties should be found and these parties would then start negotiating on a deal with another informateur.