Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Sozialliberal]

VVD-CDA-D66-GL seems like the rough equivalent of the German Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP) to me, which some journalists consider an option at federal level this year. It would be funny if both the Netherlands and Germany had this rather peculiar government coalition set-up.

How I would compare the German parties with the Dutch parties:
CDU/CSU = cross between CDA and VVD
FDP = cross between VVD and D66
Grüne = cross between D66 and GL

[DC Al Fine]

How long will it be until we start seeing regular polls again? Once the government is announced? I want to see what's happened since the election.

[DavidB.]

How long will it be until we start seeing regular polls again? Once the government is announced? I want to see what's happened since the election.

Peil continues to conduct polls on a weekly basis. This was the last one, on May 7:


Not much has changed. There has been much silence on the government formation and there was a two-week parliamentary recess as well. Once there is a final deal, things will start shifting quickly.

[DavidB.]

This polling question gives interesting insight into the obvious differences among the electorates of the four parties that are currently forming a government.

"Would you find it to be acceptable if the formation results in the implementation of the following policy?" Answers are listed from most popular policy (among the entire electorate) to least popular policy. Investment in public transit is popular among voters of all four potential coalition parties, but increasing defense spending would already be unacceptable to 34% of GL voters. Making it easier for people to work as freelancers instead of contracted employees is not deemed problematic. While VVD, D66 and GL voters think it would be acceptable if the formation results in a law that would allow people to end their lives with assistance if they don't feel like living anymore, 54% of CDA voters think this is unacceptable. Other issues show even larger gaps between the four parties' electorates: where 91% of GL voters think implementing fiscal policies that decrease income inequality would be acceptable, only 25% of VVD voters and 47% of CDA voters think so. And while 68% of CDA voters and 63% of VVD voters think teaching children the national anthem in school is acceptable, only 27% of GL voters and 33% of D66 voters think so. The implementation of a variable road pricing system would be deemed acceptable by 85% of GL voters and 66% of D66 voters, but 57% of VVD voters and 73% of CDA voters think this would be unacceptable. Not lowering healthcare copayments would be deemed acceptable by 73% of VVD voters and 59% of D66 voters, but unacceptable by  73% of GL voters and 59% of CDA voters -- GL campaigned on abolishing copayments altogether, CDA on lowering them by 100 euros. Increasing the tax burden on citizens in order to reach the Paris climate goals, which is bound to happen if GL enter the government, would be acceptable to 66% of GL voters (who are the 34% who voted GL but don't think this is acceptable?) and 57% of D66 voters, but unacceptable to 75% of CDA voters and 79% of VVD voters. Increasing the total number of refugees that can be accommodated in the Netherlands (which seems a moot point given that we don't have an upper limit) is acceptable to 74% of GL voters, but only to 48% of D66 voters, 15% of VVD voters and 10% of CDA voters.

The final deal is bound to cause a lot of anger among the base of VVD, CDA and GL: there is simply no way to reconcile all these viewpoints.

[SunSt0rm]

Negotiations between the parties failed

[DavidB.]

Nice!

[SunSt0rm]

Negotiations failed because of immigration, wonder if its just between VVD/CDA and GL or also between VVD/CDA and D66 (& GL for sure). If the latter is the case, its going to be difficult as its almost certain VVD, CDA and D66 have to be included in almost any combination, but also because CU and PvdA are left on immigration.

[mvd10]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

EDIT: CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA doesn't even have a majority lol. They also would need CU in that case. Not happening.

[SunSt0rm]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

[DavidB.]

Given that the differences between GL and CDA appeared to be the biggest stumbling block, I highly doubt any combination of these parties without the VVD would truly be more successful. I'm even inclined to think a combination without the CDA may have a better chance of succeeding, but it's more likely that Pechtold will just have to bite the bullet. I wouldn't rule out a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government either. D66 will at least want to save their progressive crown jewels and exactly this will be difficult with CU.

[SunSt0rm]

Given that the differences between GL and CDA appeared to be the biggest stumbling block, I highly doubt any combination of these parties without the VVD would truly be more successful. I'm even inclined to think a combination without the CDA may have a better chance of succeeding, but it's more likely that Pechtold will just have to bite the bullet. I wouldn't rule out a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government either. D66 will at least want to save their progressive crown jewels and exactly this will be difficult with CU.

Without CDA? lol

so VVD-D66-GL-SP or VVD-D66-GL-PvdA-CU?

[mvd10]

I suppose a minority coalition is the best option now. It might even be good for Dutch democracy. I don't think there are much countries with such strict party discipline and I certainly don't think it was meant this way.

[Diouf]

So the ball is basically in Pechtold's half now. Does he play the responsible centrist and agree to a coalition with VVD, CDA and the small Christian parties in some way, which will very likely end up in a significant loss of left-liberal voters. Or do they refuse to take part in such majorities, which makes coalition building almost impossible (and probably new elections?)

If it does become VVD-CDS-D66 minority, how much leeway do you think it would get? Would it only be supported by the Christian parties, whom will require most policy to be agreed with them. Or could it get supported by more parties in the name of stability? The latter option would also then allow the government more flexibility in different policy areas, e.g. migration & economy with centre-right, climate & education with centre-left.

[mvd10]

I guess the Christian parties would be the main source of support, but PvdA and GL don't seem like the kind of parties who will go in scorched earth opposition if they can get something nice in return. But the main problem I have with a minority coalition is tax reform. The Christian parties (and to a lesser extent the CDA) mainly want to close the gap between one-earners and two-earners (one-earners pay higher average rates) which would be unacceptable to D66 and VVD because it will probably end up lowering labor force participation. PvdA and GL will want some redistribution which will be opposed by VVD and CDA. I don't think a minority coalition can pass tax reform. And the Dutch tax system really needs to be reformed.

Other important reforms also might be postponed. But like you said, it would also allow flexibility for VVD-CDA-D66 which looks very attractive. If a minority coalition enables them to cherry pick the best parts from GL and the Christian parties I'm all for it

[DavidB.]

If it does become VVD-CDS-D66 minority, how much leeway do you think it would get? Would it only be supported by the Christian parties, whom will require most policy to be agreed with them. Or could it get supported by more parties in the name of stability? The latter option would also then allow the government more flexibility in different policy areas, e.g. migration & economy with centre-right, climate & education with centre-left.

I think they would continue like VVD and PvdA did in the last four years: striking deals with various parties on a case-by-case basis. Because of the fact that the last government did not have a majority in the Senate, it was essentially a minority government too, the only difference being that a VVD-CDA-D66 government can be voted out by a parliamentary majority. But CU and SGP would be very reluctant in supporting a motion of no confidence and causing new elections if a VVD-CDA-D66 government is formed.

CDA and VVD value traditional political patterns (of which majority governments are an important part) very highly, though, so I expect an attempt to form a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government first.

[SunSt0rm]

On fiscal and economic issues, the minority coalition will rely on CU & SGP. On issues about the EU, PvdA and GL will support them. On social issues they rely on PvdA and GL as well, although CU and SGP may say there will be consequences for other deals. On migration, its going to be difficult. Moving towards PVV will be unacceptable for the D66 and I dont think they are willing to support the government in any way.

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

[DavidB.]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Sure, but if a motion of no confidence against the government is introduced over this issue, other parties, such as GL, would not vote along. I truly doubt CU would support all motions of no confidence after a new euthanasia law passes. But in any case, I agree that this would doubtlessly be a continuous threat to the government's stability and it gives Rutte much less leeway than in a traditional majority government. He is tired of the wheeling and dealing with parties outside the government that he has had to do for the last seven years, but he may have to do it again.

[SunSt0rm]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Thats what I also expect. But I think D66 need at least one social trophy, otherwise it would be suicidal for them to enter a coalition with CU.

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

[mvd10]

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Sure, but if a motion of no confidence against the government is introduced over this issue, other parties, such as GL, would not vote along. I truly doubt CU would support any and all motions of no confidence after a new euthanasia law passes. But in any case, I agree that this would doubtlessly be a continuous threat to the government's stability and it gives Rutte much less leeway than in a traditional majority government. He is tired of the wheeling and dealing with parties outside the government that he has had to do for the last seven years, but he may have to do it again.

A motion of no confidence over this issue would not pass, but try governing in a minority coalition without CU/SGP support on some issues for 4 years. It basically would be VVD-CDA-D66-(PvdA/GL).

I'm not sure whether a VVD-CDA-D66 minority coalition would be much better for D66 than a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition btw. I just remembered that CU threatened to withdraw all their support for the VVD-PvdA coalition if a law making illegality prosecutable passed. I think they would do the same thing with D66's euthanasia law. Stopping D66's euthanasia proposal probably is much more important to CU.

Thats what I also expect. But I think D66 need at least one social trophy, otherwise it would be suicidal for them to enter a coalition with CU.

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

I see what you did there

[DavidB.]

Its very complicated now, one party has to commit suicide in order to get a coalition I suspect

And I think it will have to be D66. CU can simply stay out. If D66 stay out, an early election seems almost unavoidable.

Also yeah lol @ that.

[mvd10]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

[DavidB.]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

VVD-CDA-PVV-D66 has one, but I don't think that's what he means...

[SunSt0rm]

wtf, GL didn't want refugees deals that are similar to the Turkish deal, but they want to accept the refugees here.

[DC Al Fine]

Pechtold wants a coalition with a ''broad majority'' (read: ''please don't do it Mark, you know VVD-CDA-D66-CU will fk me up'').

VVD-CDA-PVV-D66 has one, but I don't think that's what he means...

Hehehe