Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

CDA voters are gradually dying. Among people aged 65 and over CDA still has 20% of the vote, in all the other age groups it is about 10%. PvdA now has 9 seats and I wouldn't be at all surprised if CDA gets less than 10 seats in the next 10 to 15 years. CDA's highs are getting lower and that probably means its lows will also be lower.

CDA membership:
1980: 150.000
1990: 125.000
2000: 82.000
2017: 47.000

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

And D66 is a progressive but not a leftist party.
PvdA voters went everywhere: PvdD gained 3, Denk gained 3, 50Plus gained 2.

[DC Al Fine]

Serious what if question here:

If in 2012 the PvdA had won 1 more seat than VVD, the PvdA leader would have become PM instead of Rutte in a "grand coalition". If that had happened, do people think the PvdA would have done much better tonight and the VVD would have been the "junior coalition partner that gets demolished in the subsequent election"?

I'd guess it would be even messier than now. There are two reasons for PvdA's destruction:
1) Being a junior partner
2) Betraying their base

Assuming VVD didn't go completely pro-migrant, the betrayal element wouldn't be there, so they wouldn't get blasted quite so much. PvdA may or may not have still had the betrayal factor depending on their governance. Take the 2017 results. Put VVD, D66 and GL down, and PvdA, CDA, and PVV up, that's approximately what I think it would look like.

[MAINEiac4434]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

As good as that sounds, PvdA want to take a step back from governing after this defeat and GroenLinks is accepting the mantle of "non-Wilders opposition."

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Still can't believe they lost a seat with PvdA's total collapse. Such a missed opportunity.

[crals]

Random question: I'm aware that PVV are off-limits for them, but could CDA ever work with other right-wing populists such as the FvD?

[jaichind]

How does the PR seat allocation work? Based on what I see it seems CDA should be on target to get 18 and not 19 seats while FvD should be on target to get 3 instead of 2.

[SunSt0rm]

Only 20% of the PvdA voters of 2012 voted PvdA yesterday. 17% went to GL, 13% to D66, 11% to SP, 5% to VVD and 5% to PVV.

[FrancoAgo]

How does the PR seat allocation work? Based on what I see it seems CDA should be on target to get 18 and not 19 seats while FvD should be on target to get 3 instead of 2.

afaik total valid vote/150=Y
each list total vote/Y= full seats for list
The seats that remain are distributed by the method of largest average

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Regarding your point on PVV, they blew a 40 seats result and instead got only 20. How can you say that this is a good result for them. They massively underperformed the polls.
In every country the far right is rising, with the Netherlands having partiesry with strong far right parties (Fortuin etc), the fact they massively underpolled the polls should be worrying for them.

That's only true to a certain extend. Ofcourse Wilders had hoped for more (he fully admitted that). But:

- PVV never polled at 40 seats, 35 at max. Ever since december his pollnumbers started to drop. In the final weeks he polled in the low-20-seats. He didn't underperform the polls, the polls proved to be accurate. But you're right: in the perspective of the longer term he performed poorly.
- those high pollnumbers proove that his ceiling is way higher than low-20 seats. The potential PVV-voters are there, Wilders just hasnt succeeded in pursuading them. That's solely on him and his poor campaign. His base showed up, but he hasn't been able to broaden it (NOS today reports that PVV had the most loyal voters yesterday, right after the christian parties. Twothird stayed with the party).
- Don't forget the voters rewarded Rutte for his strong stance against Turkey, which could be seen as a PVV-approach. So his influence as the largest oppositionparty might be larger than as a coalition party (which never was going to happen anyway). For this rol to play it doesn't really matter if the PVV gets 20 or 30 seats.
- Despite a massive cordon sanitaire more then 1 million people voted for the PVV and he enlarged his number of seats by 1/3.

No, it's just not right to call this a bad result. But I agree: things could have been better. In my opinion he has to take his party a step further now: open it for membership, put some decent MP's together to write a realistic program, become an adult people's party. Only then he can stay relevant in the future.

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

Sure, but there isn't 'the left'. I regard many GroenLinks voters as liberal, the same is certainly true for D'66. The old base from the PvdA just isn't there anymore, it doesn't exist. The remnants of it can be found at SP, ofcourse they are disappointed, and PVV. But because of the total implosian of the PvdA, almost all other parties have won. A left coalition was never a realistic scenario (as it has never really been in our history).

Note: the problem for Balkenende was ofcourse he came down from 41 to 21. But that was nothing like we have seen with the PvdA yesterday. By the way: Balkenende today has become a commissionar at ING.

[ApatheticAustrian]

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

[MAINEiac4434]

Only Leeuwarderadeel hasn't has declared yet. Every other municipality has. Being in the north it was staunchly PvdA last time around. It's surrounded by CDA municipalities.

[mvd10]

The CU says the VVD should talk to GroenLinks first because GroenLinks is one of the main winners of the election while CU remained stable at 5 seats. Under Halsema or Sap GroenLinks would have been able to work with the VVD, but I think Klaver has bigger ambitions than being the smallest coalition partner in a centre-right coalition, especially now the PvdA is in shambles and D66 is likely going to lose seats if they govern with VVD, CDA and CU. Klaver might have done it if other elections were the only other option, but there is another option for a stable coalition so I don't see why he should rush to the VVD with the risk of ending up in the same situation as the PvdA.

Asscher said it is likely the PvdA will go in opposition.

[Zinneke]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

[Tintrlvr]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

PvdD's demographic profile seems to have changed somewhat this time. They did very well in Noord-Holland for some reason (5.7% in Bergen, 4.8% in Alkmaar and 4.0% in Castricum, e.g., all stronger than any result in the far south).

[DavidB.]

PvdD's demographic profile seems to have changed somewhat this time. They did very well in Noord-Holland for some reason (5.7% in Bergen, 4.8% in Alkmaar and 4.0% in Castricum, e.g., all stronger than any result in the far south).

This is a correct observation. The pattern seems to be somewhat more traditionally green partyish this time. They have always done well in Bergen though.

[DavidB.]

Some other observations:
- PVV's gains in the south were very poor: the disappointed southern voter who used to vote CDA but voted PVV in 2010 and VVD in 2012 often came home for the CDA this time rather than voting for Wilders once again. This is a pattern we saw in the provincial election in 2015 too: stable result nationally, but small gains in the north and losses in Limburg. This time, outside the south, the party often only slightly underperformed on its 2010 result, and in Groningen they probably did better than in 2010. The PVV lost support in Wilders' hometown of Venlo (though the absolute number of votes will be higher this time).
- Was it Sunstorm or Rogier who expected Edam-Volendam to be FvD's best municipality? This prediction was spot on: 6.1%.
- The SP received more votes than the Jessiah movement. For all the talk about Klaver's #revolution, Emile Roemer leads the largest party on the left.
- Awful result for the left. SP, PvdA, GL and PvdD received 42 seats, which should be a record low and is barely more than what the PvdA got on their own in 2012. The Dutch are a bourgeois, center-right bunch. A VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition would be fitting in that regard.
- The Erdogan row probably gave Rutte a "Prime Minister bonus" at the expense of CDA and PVV.
- Turnout among young voters (18-24) was lower (!) than in 2012: 66%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

sure the dutch are center-right but the split is different than in other countries anyway and while i could never vote for the ÖVP here in austria, i could totally see myself hypothetically voting for D66. Mostly it was an anti-fringe election, imho, and even the utter implosion of the PvdA did only help center-center/center-leftish parties, which is quite a difference again......our social democracy was directly connected to the success of the FPÖ for a long time.

[DavidB.]

Mostly it was an anti-fringe election, imho, and even the utter implosion of the PvdA did only help center-center/center-leftish parties, which is quite a difference again......our social democracy was directly connected to the success of the FPÖ for a long time.

It was not an "anti-fringe" election, just like the 2012 election was not an "anti-fringe" election. The "fringes" were simply irrelevant and voters knew it. There was no overarching theme or mood. People left the PvdA because they were disappointed with the government's economic policies that were perceived as "too VVD", and some people left the VVD because they were disappointed for different reasons (refugees, broken promises). The SP and the PVV were no attractive alternatives to most voters, and Wilders not campaigning hurt him too. The Guardian/Economist/Juncker way of "understanding" this election is pretty lazy. People only call this an anti-fringe election because the PVV didn't win as much as was expected.

D66 is much more comparable to NEOS, of course... do you vote for them?

[DavidB.]

Another great outcome of this election is that pro-Israel parties have more seats now than in the last parliament: 77-75 last time around, 82-68 this time. VVD-PVV-CDA gained three and FvD two while CU and SGP parties remained stable.

[ApatheticAustrian]

D66 is much more comparable to NEOS, of course... do you vote for them?

i could see myself voting for them next time, since they are in danger of becoming irrelevant again and i think at least one liberal party should be part of every parliament, especially since they are more of a socio-liberal party and campaigned hard against the right-fringe, which is the only existing fringe at all in austria.

well, you surely know endless more than me about dutch politics so let me rephrase: the dutch society/political landscape is in general quite....centerish and more afraid of experiments/many parties seem to agree on some major points and are willing to cooperate, especially cause they must cooperate.

Ofc under-achieving Wilders is a sign of "anti-fringe" but the SP also didn't suddenly grow like crazy and the biggest winners are more or less moderate parties, who have also been framed as potential partners in government.

Btw.....if your explanation is based on data, it's funny that people who would leave the PdvA cause of right-wing economics would switch to D66, which also seems to follow right-wing economics.

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam: results by district. DENK first in Nieuw-West, PVV in Noord.

[Intell]

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

[DavidB.]

The big three: CDA, PvdA and VVD. Not that big anymore...

Working class voters a split between the SP and PVV, though lean to the SP, right?

Don't know what "lean" means here, and doubt it's a fitting term, but working-class people are more likely to vote for the SP or the PVV, yes.