Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

D66, feel closer with them and want to give them a stronger position in the negotiation of a possible centre right coalition with CU and SGP. I trust Buma and also Pechtold to refuse coalition with SP and trust VVD to win against PVV

I understand! I like the fact that most people will now feel free to cast a sincere vote instead of a tactical vote, unlike in 2012 and 2010. From a democratic perspective I think this is preferrable. On the downside it has made the campaign less "accessible" to many voters: I often hear that people don't know what the election is about, and turnout may be lower. However, in a democracy I think one can reasonably expect voters to read up at least to some extent (newspapers or highlights of manifestos), to watch a debate, and to fill out a Stemwijzer, and I think most people do so.

Ours is usually 1 meter across by around 20-30 centimeters high. It's only that high because we use offset printing for the senate ballot papers, and the limitations are such that you can't make a ballot paper higher than that, meaning when there are a lot of groups on the paper (there always are), the font is so small, you need a magnifying sheet to view it properly.

I'm pretty sure ours is larger and it may not even be close. In 2015, I voted both for myself and for a friend (which is legal here) in an election where we had two ballot papers, one for the provincial election and one for the water boards.  Took me quite some time to have all four ballot papers filled out...

[ApatheticAustrian]

at which hour is it usually possible to make educated guesses about the final results....10-11 p.m. local time?

[Bumaye]

Final prediction: 
VVD 27 
CDA 21 
PVV 21 
GL 19 
D66 17 
SP 15 
PdvA 9 
CU 5 
50Plus 5 
SGP 3 
PvdD 3 
DENK 2 
FvD 2 
PP 1 

[DavidB.]

at which hour is it usually possible to make educated guesses about the final results....10-11 p.m. local time?

Depends. I know that in 2010 and 2012 it was only around 3 that we were sure about the VVD coming first, but at the time the race was closer (and there was more at stake in the first place). The exit poll at 9 should be pretty accurate though. Most of the vote will only come in after 11.

[Vosem]

Final prediction:
VVD 26
CDA 20
PVV 20
D66 18
GL 17
SP 15
PvdA 11
CU 6
PvdD 5
50+ 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 2
PP 1
VNL 1

[Dutch Conservative]

Final Prediction

VVD  26
PVV  26
CDA  24
D66  16
GL    14
PvdA 9
SP    14
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   5
PvdD  3
DENK 2
FvD   2

It's a huge gamble, polls are all over the place and I can't ignore what I am witnissing in my surrounding. Have a nice election day all and vote!

[Tender Branson]

Tender's FINAL prediction:

33 seats - VVD
23 seats - CDA
22 seats - PVV
16 seats - D66
14 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
10 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  3 seats - PvdD
  2 seats - Denk
  1 seats - FvD

MoE = +/- 2 seats (for those over 10 seats) and +/- 1 seat for those with less than 10 seats

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

The Right (VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP and FvD) should have a good day, probably getting 60% of the 150 seats (=90) or even more, based on the recent Turkish agitation. I also expect voters and late-deciders to rally around the PM and the VVD, but the CDA and PVV will also have respectable results. I expect the Left to underperform today, especially GroenLinks. PvdA will head for a disaster.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open and here are some statistics and charts:

12.980.788 people are eligible to vote

Historical turnout:



The red line is the important one for today.

Here are the final polls:



Also, Dutch ballot boxes look like our trash containers:

[Diouf]

Get yourself someone who looks at you the way the polling assistants looks at Klaver casting his vote in den Haag.

[Tender Branson]

Get yourself someone who looks at you the way the polling assistants looks at Klaver casting his vote in den Haag.

#FlawlessBeautifulJesse ??!!

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 10:30 is 15% according to Ipsos, which is 2% higher than in 2012

[Tender Branson]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

[Tender Branson]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

Thx.

Will the results today also be published here, or is there another page ?

[mvd10]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Final seat prediction:

VVD 29
PVV 21
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50PLUS 4
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 1


I will do the other questions later today.

[SunSt0rm]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

Thx.

Will the results today also be published here, or is there another page ?

No, live results will be at nos.nl

[Dutch Conservative]

Where can I find the 2012 results page to look for community results ?

And a link to the 2017 results page would also be great.

http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1

first choose year and province

I also like this one for 2012 results: http://www.verkiezingskaart.nl/

[Tender Branson]

Rotterdam turnout seems to be high so far ...

More than 103.000 people have voted so far (until noon), compared with 45.000 at the same time in the 2015 provincial election.

Final turnout was 35% back then.

Final 2012 turnout in Rotterdam was only 63%. Looks like 70%+ today ...

[Tender Branson]

About 25.000 people are currently voting in Rotterdam each hour.

The city has about the same real-time reporting website as Broward County, FL - for which I also did some calculations on election day.

Peak voting in Rotterdam seems to start after 4pm, when the workers are streaming to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

It remains to be seen if this is just a Rotterdam-phenomenon, or if turnout is also up significantly in other parts of Holland.

Rotterdam might be a special case because of the Turkish riots there, which could draw a lot of people to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

Den Haag confirms the turnout surge in Rotterdam ...

Noon turnout: 23.4% (was 19.3% in 2012)

https://www.denhaag.nl/home/bewoners/gemeente/to/Tussentijdse-opkomst-Tweede-Kamerverkiezingen.htm

[Beezer]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

[Tender Branson]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

The Rotterdam result today could be really fractured, with many parties around 15-20%.

[Dutch Conservative]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

The Rotterdam result today could be really fractured, with many parties around 15-20%.

I agree, although I do think there is a good chance the PVV will end up as largest party. Wich parties usually profit from a higher turnout? I know the christian parties profit from a lower turnout.

[DavidB.]

Is there a chance of the PVV coming in first in Rotterdam, considering this was Fortuyn's hometown?

That is probably going to happen, though more so because it has a large white working-class population than because of a Fortuyn effect.

Turnout in Rotterdam substantially higher than in 2012: they already passed 25% and are usually notorious for having low turnout. Being cautious here, but it could be a good sign for DENK: many Muslims who usually never vote may be voting now. However, at first glance, this map doesn't suggest Geert Wilders should be pulling a Netanyahu soon:

Turnout higher in (lower) middle class district Prins Alexander (good sign for VVD and PVV), affluent district Hillegersberg-Schiebroek, the city center, white working-class area Pernis (which will vote PVV) and the separate commuter towns of Rozenburg and Hoek van Holland; lower in largely non-white areas Delfshaven, Feijenoord. The usual patterns except for Prins Alexander and Pernis, I think.