Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

Peil tends to overpoll the combined right (and the PVV) the most, I&O tends to underpoll both the combined right and the PVV the most. Right-wing parties at 79 in Peil, at 67 in I&O. Will probably be somewhere between these figures. Interested in Kantar and Ipsos, though the latter pollster will overpoll the VVD as always.

[freek]

Huge error margins for this poll. 14-22 seats for GL. That means 9-14%.

[mvd10]

Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

 
  
Why do they deliver these topics to Wilders on a silver platter? Everyone knows his positions about Islam. Let him talk about Health Care or Income Inequality instead.  
  
  
About the I&O poll: A bump for Rutte makes sense. He has proven to quite some right-wing voters that he is willing to fight back when countries like Turkey go to far. That being said I agree that the PVV is to weak in that poll. I can see them coming in 3rd or maybe 4th if GL has a good turnout, but 5th is unrealistic.

Wilders already has quite well known positions on healthcare. He was one of the main opponents of healthcare cuts. It would be very interesting to see how Wilders would do in a debate about inequality against someone like Roemer though. Wilders probably doesn't really want to reduce income inequality and I wouldn't be surprised if Roemer was closer to Wilders' base on income inequality than Wilders himself. The PVV base is fairly left-wing on economics (they shouldn't make the mistake of becoming too left-wing on economics though).

If this final poll came true - why not cut the VVD out of the action entirely and have a D66/CDA/GL/SP/PvdA (maybe throw in CU too)...and have a centre left gov't with the D66 leader as PM?

CDA has ruled out a D66-CDA-GL-PvdA-SP coalition, even if Buma were to become PM. Promises like this probably are worthless, but I can't see it happening.

[mgop]

i&o and their out of touch junk polls... just give all 150 to d666 and gl already lol

[SunSt0rm]

Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

 
 
Why do they deliver these topics to Wilders on a silver platter? Everyone knows his positions about Islam. Let him talk about Health Care or Income Inequality instead. 
 
 
About the I&O poll: A bump for Rutte makes sense. He has proven to quite some right-wing voters that he is willing to fight back when countries like Turkey go to far. That being said I agree that the PVV is to weak in that poll. I can see them coming in 3rd or maybe 4th if GL has a good turnout, but 5th is unrealistic.

The first person chooses the topic. So Asscher chose to debate about integration and Wilders chose to debate about Islam with Segers

[DavidB.]

Huge error margins for this poll. 14-22 seats for GL. That means 9-14%.

That's his prognosis, I don't think it's the MoE of his poll even if it is obviously based on the poll. But yeah, with such a huge seat difference it's not hard to make a correct prediction. I, for one, strongly believe GL will get between 0 and 150 seats. Though, in all fairness, it's good for him to be cautious.

i&o and their out of touch junk polls... just give all 150 to d666 and gl already lol

Wow I love you

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos final Poll

VVD 29 (+3)
CDA 23 (+2)
PVV 20 (-3)
D66 18 (+1)
SP 15 (+2)
GL 15 (+1)
PvdA 9 (-2)
CU 5 (-2)
50Plus 5 (-1)
SGP 4 (-1)
PvdD 4
DENK 2
FvD 1

VVD+CDA+D66+CU 75 seats

[mvd10]

Freedom poll! I like the SGP but SGP and D66 in a coalition would be very awkward (even more awkward than CU and D66) so it's probably better if VVD-CDA-D66-CU gets a majority. It probably won't happen though. I always get the feeling that Ipsos overestimates the ''bourgeoisie'' centre-right parties.

[DavidB.]

That's two polls confirming the PVV slipping. This may actually be true.

[Angel of Death]

Denk pulling out of the debate is completely incomprehensible. What possible risk could there have been for them participating? Almost any "incident" could only have been to their benefit.

[DavidB.]

Denk pulling out of the debate is completely incomprehensible. What possible risk could there have been for them participating? Almost any "incident" could only have been to their benefit.

DENK have been extremely careful in speaking out when it comes to the Erdogan incident, but Kuzu won't be able to defend himself against accusations with regard to being too easy on Erdogan as easily in a television debate. Skipping the debate will prevent potential DENK voters who aren't that enamored with Erdogan from walking away. Meanwhile, their base won't care about Kuzu not showing up.

[DavidB.]

I always get the feeling that Ipsos overestimates the ''bourgeoisie'' centre-right parties.

This is true, btw. It doesn't necessarily overestimate the combined right, but it overestimates the VVD and tends to underestimate the PVV.

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ PM Rutte when he said yesterday: "I want the Netherlands to be the first country in Europe to stop the trend of the Far-Right populists."

It's Austria first, Netherlands second when it comes to this ...

[DavidB.]

LOL @ PM Rutte when he said yesterday: "I want the Netherlands to be the first country in Europe to stop the trend of the Far-Right populists."

It's Austria first, Netherlands second when it comes to this ...

A party leader responsible for paying millions to have ads with the word "kopvodden" is a right-wing populist himself.

[Mike88]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

[DavidB.]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

You vote for a candidate on a party list, but this vote is treated as a vote for the party, and seats are allocated on that basis using the D'Hondt method.

[Mike88]

How is the ballot format? Do people vote only for one party and then the seats are allocated, by using the d'hondt method or other, or do people vote for their favoured candidates and not the parties?

You vote for a candidate on a party list, but this vote is treated as a vote for the party, and seats are allocated on that basis using the D'Hondt method.

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

[DavidB.]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

[DavidB.]

And here's the final Kantar poll:




Kantar, like Peil, expect turnout to be at the same level of 2012/2010.

[Mike88]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Yikes!... I guess you guys whished to have the ballot format we have here in Portugal, which is a A4 paper form:

[freek]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!!  

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It is bigger this time. Wider, because there are more parties (Somewhere between 22 and 27 parties). Also, VVD and PvdA have 80 candidates per district. This is too long for one column, these parties will have a second column.

[freek]

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

[Dutch Conservative]

Some bad polls for the PVV today. The I&O poll is really strange and I dont buy it. Something has to be wrong with their sample. Or my political 'antenna' is way off. Quite some people in my surrounding have swung to the PVV in the last days (even today), I'm not sure if the polls could pick up such a movement. But on the other hand it's just an anecdotal story.

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: D'66
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): D'66
Largest in Gelderland: CDA

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? OVER
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? OVER
Best VVD municipality? Wassenaar
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Rijswijk
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK and FvD will get in.

Final seat prediction I will post tonight after the debate.

[DavidB.]

Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask?

[Diouf]

Peter-Paul Koch's average on quirksmode, including today's five polls.

VVD 27
PVV 22
CDA 21
D66 17
GL 16
SP 15
PvdA 10
CU 6
50Plus 5
PvdD 4
SGP 3
DENK 2
FvD 2

http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html