Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

I wouldnt be against it

[DavidB.]

VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP at 76 too. This could be us, but u playin, VVD-CDA (and PVV too, tbf). Press F to pay your respects to the Netherlands, Freedom Country whose political future ended in 2012

(sorry for my sh**tposting, will try to be more serious in the future )

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

[DavidB.]

Yeah, not happening anyway. Even CDA and some VVD senators (Sybe Schaap comes to mind) would block anything that would make it worthwhile for the PVV to engage in government cooperation with these parties. I gave up these hopes long ago. Perhaps FVD can replace the PVV on the right, just like the PVV once replaced the useless LPF.

Here are the polling numbers in the Ipsos poll. I suspect some potential VVD voters have gone to the CDA due to Buma's performance in the RTL debate. AP = other parties (DENK, VNL, FVD all 1 seat).


Somewhat surprising that the PVV don't benefit from 50Plus' collapse at all -- or perhaps they do, but more people are leaving. 16.0% would still be an all-time high in a parliamentary election for the PVV. They received 15.5% of the vote in 2010.

[windjammer]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

[Maxwell]

why are the numbers for PVV falling so close to the election?

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

Being in government has already almost killed D66 multiple times, but they always seem to come back after a decade or so in opposition. If VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP has a majority I think it will happen. CDA wants to work with the Christian parties, VVD doesn't want any left-wing party in government and D66 is very desperate to govern so I think they will eventually accept it. And GL and PvdA probably don't want to be in government with the VVD unless absolutely necessary, so if there is a centre-right majority they will gratefully go in opposition I think.

[DavidB.]

why are the numbers for PVV falling so close to the election?

Because while all other parties decided to campaign, to engage in tv debates and to organize rallies, Wilders just kept tweeting fake news, photoshopped pictures of other politicians and insults at the media. He did an interview with Ezra Levant, though. Perhaps 10 Dutch people -- including myself -- watched it. Really useful. Now, given that President Trump isn't exactly popular in the Netherlands (whether that is fair or unfair is irrelevant) and Wilders' behavior seems like an imitation of Trump's campaign right now, people who are not part of the base start to leave. For Wilders to win the election, he has to pretend he wants to have a role in the policy-making process. He could point at other parties excluding him and say he has been constructive, etc. But he has to come off as somewhat serious. However, if he doesn't even show interest in being a serious politician himself, as is the case now, undecideds are not going to vote for him even if they sympathize with some of his views. To be fair, much can still happen and Wilders will start doing debates and rallies from next week onward. But he has thrown away a lot of potential already.

A majority think the country is moving in the wrong direction. A majority think the EU is too powerful, even if most don't want to leave it altogether. A majority think immigration affects the country negatively. A majority have a negative opinion of Islam. The potential is there. But it takes a serious politician who at least pretends to take responsibility to win over these large numbers of voters. The PVV have proved time and again to be unable (and perhaps even unwilling) to do so.

[DavidB.]

Another point is that before the campaign season, people based their choice on their opinion of the government. Right-wing voters who were disappointed with the government's immigration and EU policies were inclined to say they were going to vote for the PVV. In the campaign season, however, people start to think prospectively rather than retrospectively. They look at the parties' manifestos and plans for the future and realize the PVV do not have a serious manifesto, do not engage in debates and are not going to be in a coalition anyway, so one might as well vote for the CDA, the VVD or perhaps the SGP.

[SunSt0rm]

Economically, such a coalition would make sense. On social issues there will be troubles between D66 and CU/SGP. I hope D66 will demand a high price for such a coalition on social and environmental issues.

Its pretty embarrassing (which I am glad) that the PVV is not winning overwhelmingly in an era where populism is at his height.  

[DavidB.]

Fortunately weed legalization was passed already, so it "only" has to pass the senate now (which remains doubtful). The proposal on assisted suicide for those who don't qualify for euthanasia would likely be retracted in a coalition with CDA, CU and SGP; this would probably be a key demand. Other than that I cannot think of any "social" issues that are salient right now. Much could happen outside the coalition too.

D66 would find CU on its side on environmental issues.

[mvd10]

I think such a coalition would just agree to block progressive legislation on issues like abortion and euthanasia for 4 years without rolling anything back. D66 would get its way with massive investments in education and a green tax shift (I don't think there are many climate change deniers in the SGP but I'm not sure). On the other areas the parties would easily come to an agreement. But atm this coalition doesn't have a majority in the polls so it's just speculation.

[mgop]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

[DavidB.]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

[mgop]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

Oh too bad, i was thinking that they are maybe the best party and that they can work with PVV. Socially conservative and left wing economics sounds good, but climate change and refugees are probably the reason they are small party.

[Zinneke]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

Ask themselves what would Jesus do I imagine.

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

Does he know people from Leuwaarden do not consider themselves Fryske?

 

Also, complaining about Rutte saying no more cents do the Greeks when the CDA actually voted against the bailout for purely populistic reasons (when we know they would have voted for in government.

CDA are the kind of party that talk a lot but never say anything remotely worthwile, thankfully the Tsjeven on both sides of the border will peter out soon.

[Zinneke]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

Oh too bad, i was thinking that they are maybe the best party and that they can work with PVV. Socially conservative and left wing economics sounds good, but climate change and refugees are probably the reason they are small party.

Beter zwijgen als ge niets over weet

[mvd10]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

Yeah, I think Buma might surprise us this election. He is running against the ''endless individualism'' of the VVD. Buma reminds me of Theresa May. They both are centrist on economics while also being authoritorian, and they both despise the libertarian right (think Cameron/Osborne and the VVD). And I think the message of Buma and May is much more popular than the message of the libertarian right (even though I prefer Rutte and Cameron over Buma and May).

With libertarian right I don't mean actual libertarians, I mean the socially liberal fiscally conservative™ pro-globalism live and let live right-wingers (like me lol).

[SunSt0rm]

Buma is surging!

De Hond
PVV 25 (-4)
VVD 24 (-1)
CDA 21 (+3)
GL 17 (-1)
D66 17 (+3)
SP 13 (+2)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 5 (=)
PvvD 5 (+1)
50+ 5 (-1)
SGP 3 (=)
Denk 2 (=)
FvD 2 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

Trend: CDA & D66 gaining, PVV, 50+ losing

[Dutch Conservative]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

I've read the interview. I still believe there is a world to win for CDA. When it stays on a center-right course, tough on immigration, a touch of cultural nationalism, etc. they could become the largest party.
I see 2 problems (and both brought me to NOT vote for the CDA).
1. Buma is an intelligent, somewhat sympathetic leader, but not an effective politician. In the interview you can read the kind of halfhearted language he always uses. For instance: 'yes, i think our culture has some advantages, but i wouldn't presume to say our culture is better'. What kind of message is that? Who understands where Buma realy stands. He never makes real choices.
2. The CDA is considered by many to be an unreliable party. I can see that in my family, many of who voted CDA in the past (including myself). But you can just never know what you are voting for. So the voters vote for a more pure direction: CU or SGP when they care abou christian values / VVD or PVV when they care about immigration.

I don't really buy into this Buma-surging narrative. There are still two more weeks to go and some important debates. I really doubt the PVV's numbers are falling significantly.

[DavidB.]

Didn't expect a Peil poll today... According to De Hond, PVV voters are crossing over to CDA, doubtlessly due to Buma's strong debate performance last Sunday. Real smart for Greet not to be there. He may take another hit on Sunday, when Rutte and Buma will be present at the Carré debate whereas Wilders will be sipping wine on the couch

Yeah, I think Buma might surprise us this election. He is running against the ''endless individualism'' of the VVD. Buma reminds me of Theresa May. They both are centrist on economics while also being authoritorian, and they both despise the libertarian right (think Cameron/Osborne and the VVD). And I think the message of Buma and May is much more popular than the message of the libertarian right (even though I prefer Rutte and Cameron over Buma and May).

I wholly agree and think Rutte should prepare himself for a tough debate with Buma on Sunday. The VVD may be able to counter a CDA ad with cynical remarks in the category "haha Rutte MP and u ain't", but Rutte won't get away with that in a debate. It was smart for the VVD to change the messaging after the Provincial election in 2015. Rutte coming across as more of a communitarian can also be nicely tied to him being the most "Prime Ministeriable" leader. He was strong and convincing when talking about what Christmas means to him (not to me personally, since Christmas doesn't mean anything to me and I've long stopped believing him, but in a more general sense), and this year's slogan "passing on freedom" is both more inspiring and more fitting to the times we live in than 2012's economic slogans in the category of "no handouts, but rolling up your sleeves" ("handen uit de mouwen in plaats van hand ophouden"). It will be interesting to see if Rutte can show that side of his in a debate with Buma and not retreat to economic messaging in the category of "we pulled the Netherlands out of the crisis" only -- if he does that, Buma may have a field day. I still think that while Rutte and the VVD's optimism is in some ways inspiring to voters, it is horribly out of sync with the way a lot of potential VVD voters feel right now. If he does not come across as someone who understands that (and why) people are worried and Buma does, he has a problem. But one should never underestimate a VVD campaign. Rutte is still an extremely strong debater and a convincing campaigner.

[DavidB.]

I've read the interview. I still believe there is a world to win for CDA. When it stays on a center-right course, tough on immigration, a touch of cultural nationalism, etc. they could become the largest party.
I see 2 problems (and both brought me to NOT vote for the CDA).
1. Buma is an intelligent, somewhat sympathetic leader, but not an effective politician. In the interview you can read the kind of halfhearted language he always uses. For instance: 'yes, i think our culture has some advantages, but i wouldn't presume to say our culture is better'. What kind of message is that? Who understands where Buma realy stands. He never makes real choices.
2. The CDA is considered by many to be an unreliable party. I can see that in my family, many of who voted CDA in the past (including myself). But you can just never know what you are voting for. So the voters vote for a more pure direction: CU or SGP when they care abou christian values / VVD or PVV when they care about immigration.

I don't really buy into this Buma-surging narrative. There are still two more weeks to go and some important debates. I really doubt the PVV's numbers are falling significantly.

Of course I wholly agree with you on a personal level. If the CDA had done their job properly the PVV would not even be needed, and while I would absolutely vote for a culturally nationalist CDA that's euroskeptical and tough on immigration, the party just isn't there and likely won't ever get there. Unfortunately, that's just not what Christian Democracy in Western Europe is... But it is important to note that most generic right-wing voters in the Netherlands are not like us. I do think Buma has a better understanding of the reasons why people are worried than Rutte, and I also think he has the capability of conveying that. While Buma is intrinsically less likeable than Rutte, he also comes across as an honest man -- quite the opposite of Mark Rutte with his 1000 euros, no money to the Greeks etc., and voters haven't forgotten about that. This Sunday's debate will be important for the electoral battle on the right.

[DavidB.]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

[MAINEiac4434]

Watch this:


This has the potential to be BIG.

Of course a Rutte-Buma two-horse race with D66-VVD swing voters ending up voting for Rutte and PVV-CDA swing voters ending up voting for Buma would be nuts since CDA and VVD will both be in the next government, but these voters on the right may not mind. In fact, they probably want both to be in the coalition.

That said, caution is needed here. Many PVV voters may prefer Buma to Rutte yet will still not be willing to vote for him.

And check that D66 number for Rutte.