Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Diouf]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the party/parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for the party/parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

[Zinneke]

PVV were relied upon while being outside of government before and they still managed to piss off their partners. The CDA especially suffered (PvdA benefiting) along with traditionally the one who collapses the coalition, hence PVV also collapsing. So I think the Left would be mad not to call Rutte's bluff if he tries to say that he needs the PVV votes to govern. The Left parties know that the VVD will look silly if they ally with PVV*, and as demonstrated by Klaver's stumble, any hint that a Left party wants to ally with Rutte is electoral suicide. What Rutte could do in a different context is ask Wilders to leave the party in a scalping move to tempt the Left but WIlders owns the party so it will never happen.
 

I'm not tempted to watch this week-ends debate with Goldielocks involved because you just know that every single party leader will want to call him up for the 1 vs 1 (it'd be funny if Asscher does it first though). Maybe a few of the left-wing parties will be smart and call up Rutte to play to their core.


*MR sold their coalition with the N-VA well here - after saying several times they would not allow it -  by black balling any state reform policy from the nationalists. Rutte doesn't have the leeway to restrict certain PVV policies over others since he has said he is against their economic program first and foremost, then the fact that PVV are divisive nativists. His rank and file are of the same opinion.

[mvd10]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the two parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for these two parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

D66 probably will make sure the government doesn't make any deals with the PVV.

Buma apparently hates Rutte, so maybe he will try to become PM of a CDA-D66-GroenLinks-PvdA-SP coalition. He denied it and it would be complete suicide for the CDA but don't underestimate the CDA's lust for power (and their base will die out the next 10 years so they might as well go out with a blaze). I don't think it will actually happen though.

I think we will end up with a VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition. GroenLinks has become more left-wing under Klaver, but I think they could support a centre-right coalition as long as that coalition is very strong on climate chance. Their base is fairly affluent and might accept a centre-right economic programme in exchange for a strong effort to reduce emissions. PvdA knows entering a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition will make sure that whatever was left of their working class base will never return.

I still don't get why the PvdA didn't push harder for Aboutaleb. Some feared that he might have ended up as Cohen 2.0 (competent and fairly popular, but got humiliated by Wilders and Rutte in the debates and screwed up every single media appearance) but that still would have been better than what's happening now. And I think Aboutaleb actually was interested in entering the leadership race.

[Diouf]

I agree that it is quite unlikely that CDA and VVD will enter into a coalition cooperation with PVV again after the debacle last time. I just figured with all the attention around Wilders and possibly PVV as the biggest party, one of the left-wing parties might use the defence of "locking out Wilders" for entering a government with the right. Even though PVV will probably be locked out anyway. But I fully agree that it would be a bad idea electorally for them to join such a right-wing government.

[DavidB.]

I have the impression that Klavermentum may not happen anymore: Pechtold is simply too strong a debater and D66 too strong a brand among progressives. Judging by the latest polls (in which GL lost seats) and conversations with GL-D66 swing voters who were inclined to vote for Klaver until last week, the D66 and PvdA campaigns against GL's "too ambitious" agenda seem to have been effective. Of course, they will still win an all-time high, but it may be 15 seats rather than 20.

I think VVD-CDA-D66-GL (the option mvd10 mentioned) and VVD-CDA-D66-CU with SGP outside support are the likeliest coalitions. Obviously D66 would prefer the option with GL, but if Klaver's gains are underwhelming (say he wins fewer than 15 seats) I think he will be less inclined to govern, and negotiations with Klaver would be tough anyway. For the second option to receive a majority, the PVV need to lose more seats to VVD/CDA while D66 have to win seats from GL. A "dark horse" option would be VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA: never underestimate how much the PvdA, and particularly people like Asscher within the PvdA, want to be in power.

[SunSt0rm]

I think the combination VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA (or VVD+CDA+D66+CU if it has a majority, but far from now) is most likely. I dont think GL will join such a coalition as Klaver is more left wing than Halsema and Sap were and the fact it had bad experience from the Kunduz coalition. I see the PvdA most likely joining such a coalition as Asscher is most open to work with the right now and I dont see him as a successfull opposition leader.

Two distnct coalitions are likely emerging after the election:
Centre right coalition: VVD+CDA+D66 plus combination of GL, PvdA and/or CU
Centre left coalition: CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+SP

The VVD, and I guees CDA and D66 are prefering the first option, while the left parties are second option. In this election, CDA and D66 are the real kingmakers who are both needed in any combination, they have momentum and are both slowly gaining in the polls as well. And my feeling is that CDA will only chose the second coalition, if the SP can be traded for the CU and Buma can become PM.

[DavidB.]

^ Worth noting that it was not Halsema who pulled the plug on Purple Plus in 2010 and that Sap only got 4 seats in 2012. The implication "if it didn't happen under Halsema it sure won't happen under Klaver" doesn't hold: GL were eager to govern, but at the time the VVD simply preferred the option with CDA and PVV. This time, the VVD will choose GL over the PVV. Your point with regard to the bad experience with Kunduz is fair, but I have the impression GroenLinks have "moved on" and seem very eager to govern, even with the VVD if necessary. I used to think a coalition with the PvdA was more likely than a coalition with GL, but that has changed.

A center-left coalition is not going to happen. Would be both illogical and electorally suicidal for the CDA, and D66 would much prefer to cooperate with the VVD too as they would form the "center" of a coalition with VVD, CDA and GL. Besides, if the VVD becomes the largest non-PVV party, they will have the initiative and others will probably follow.

[SunSt0rm]

^ Worth noting that it was not Halsema who pulled the plug on Purple Plus in 2010 and that Sap only got 4 seats in 2012. The implication "if it didn't happen under Halsema it sure won't happen under Klaver" doesn't hold: GL were eager to govern, but at the time the VVD simply preferred the option with CDA and PVV. This time, the VVD will choose GL over the PVV. Your point with regard to the bad experience with Kunduz is fair, but I have the impression GroenLinks have "moved on" and seem very eager to govern, even with the VVD if necessary. I used to think a coalition with the PvdA was more likely than a coalition with GL, but that has changed.

A center-left coalition is not going to happen. Would be both illogical and electorally suicidal for the CDA, and D66 would much prefer to cooperate with the VVD too as they would form the "center" of a coalition with VVD, CDA and GL. Besides, if the VVD becomes the largest non-PVV party, they will have the initiative and others will probably follow.

I have the opposit feeling. I think GL under Halsema and Sap were eager to govern even with the right, but that it has changed since Klaver, who is not eager to govern with the right anymore. Klaver says he strives a government without the VVD. Asscher isnt very clear yet, and I think if he is more likely to take the gamble and continue to govern as he know he cant outshine Klaver or successor of Roemer as opposition leader. The party can always sacrifice Asscher for Aboutaleb 4 years later what they used to do.

I know a centre left coalition is not very likely, but if somehow CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+CU manage to get a majority with Buma as PM, I wouldnt rule that option out.

[DavidB.]

Yes, that sounds like an interesting dark horse option too. They won't ever get a majority, but with outside support from SGP and 50Plus (and PvdD?) they probably will have one. Without the SP, this option would be much less problematic for CDA and D66. However, this will only happen if Rutte fails to form a government and both GL and PvdA don't want to govern with the VVD, which seems a stretch to me. The next government gets to spend, it won't be as austere as the last one.

Another option, by the way, is the oversized VVD-CDA-D66-GL-PvdA option, but this "national establishment coalition" was a more likely option with the PVV at 35> seats than now.

[SunSt0rm]

Poll about preferences coalitions, have no idea why the option 4 and 6 are polled lol.

VVD prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA
CDA perfer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL (but not very positively)
D66 prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL
PVDA prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL and VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA (!)
GL+SP prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL

[DavidB.]

That stunningly high amount of PvdA support for a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition is very interesting. Of course we're speaking about the people who still vote PvdA; I imagine this figure would be much lower for PvdA-2012 voters... Probably not an effective strategy to win back voters.

These figures matter: low support among VVD voters caused the VVD to pull the plug on Purple Plus in 2010. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA suddenly doesn't even seem that unlikely anymore. It would be bizarre, though, almost unreal, for VVD and PvdA to continue their cooperation despite everything.

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos poll
VVD 28 (-)
PVV 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+3)
D66 17 (+1)
GL 13 (-)
PvdA 12 (-1)
SP 12 (+1)
50+ 6 (-3)
CU 6 (-1)
SGP 5 (-) (lol)
PvvD 5 (+1)
Denk 1
FvD 1
VNL 1

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, so the VVD are definitely larger than the PVV now.

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

I have to agree. I just really don't want to cast a tactical vote, even if it becomes increasingly tempting.

[SunSt0rm]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

I wouldnt be against it

[DavidB.]

VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP at 76 too. This could be us, but u playin, VVD-CDA (and PVV too, tbf). Press F to pay your respects to the Netherlands, Freedom Country whose political future ended in 2012

(sorry for my sh**tposting, will try to be more serious in the future )

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

[DavidB.]

Yeah, not happening anyway. Even CDA and some VVD senators (Sybe Schaap comes to mind) would block anything that would make it worthwhile for the PVV to engage in government cooperation with these parties. I gave up these hopes long ago. Perhaps FVD can replace the PVV on the right, just like the PVV once replaced the useless LPF.

Here are the polling numbers in the Ipsos poll. I suspect some potential VVD voters have gone to the CDA due to Buma's performance in the RTL debate. AP = other parties (DENK, VNL, FVD all 1 seat).


Somewhat surprising that the PVV don't benefit from 50Plus' collapse at all -- or perhaps they do, but more people are leaving. 16.0% would still be an all-time high in a parliamentary election for the PVV. They received 15.5% of the vote in 2010.

[windjammer]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

[Maxwell]

why are the numbers for PVV falling so close to the election?

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

Being in government has already almost killed D66 multiple times, but they always seem to come back after a decade or so in opposition. If VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP has a majority I think it will happen. CDA wants to work with the Christian parties, VVD doesn't want any left-wing party in government and D66 is very desperate to govern so I think they will eventually accept it. And GL and PvdA probably don't want to be in government with the VVD unless absolutely necessary, so if there is a centre-right majority they will gratefully go in opposition I think.

[DavidB.]

why are the numbers for PVV falling so close to the election?

Because while all other parties decided to campaign, to engage in tv debates and to organize rallies, Wilders just kept tweeting fake news, photoshopped pictures of other politicians and insults at the media. He did an interview with Ezra Levant, though. Perhaps 10 Dutch people -- including myself -- watched it. Really useful. Now, given that President Trump isn't exactly popular in the Netherlands (whether that is fair or unfair is irrelevant) and Wilders' behavior seems like an imitation of Trump's campaign right now, people who are not part of the base start to leave. For Wilders to win the election, he has to pretend he wants to have a role in the policy-making process. He could point at other parties excluding him and say he has been constructive, etc. But he has to come off as somewhat serious. However, if he doesn't even show interest in being a serious politician himself, as is the case now, undecideds are not going to vote for him even if they sympathize with some of his views. To be fair, much can still happen and Wilders will start doing debates and rallies from next week onward. But he has thrown away a lot of potential already.

A majority think the country is moving in the wrong direction. A majority think the EU is too powerful, even if most don't want to leave it altogether. A majority think immigration affects the country negatively. A majority have a negative opinion of Islam. The potential is there. But it takes a serious politician who at least pretends to take responsibility to win over these large numbers of voters. The PVV have proved time and again to be unable (and perhaps even unwilling) to do so.

[DavidB.]

Another point is that before the campaign season, people based their choice on their opinion of the government. Right-wing voters who were disappointed with the government's immigration and EU policies were inclined to say they were going to vote for the PVV. In the campaign season, however, people start to think prospectively rather than retrospectively. They look at the parties' manifestos and plans for the future and realize the PVV do not have a serious manifesto, do not engage in debates and are not going to be in a coalition anyway, so one might as well vote for the CDA, the VVD or perhaps the SGP.

[SunSt0rm]

Economically, such a coalition would make sense. On social issues there will be troubles between D66 and CU/SGP. I hope D66 will demand a high price for such a coalition on social and environmental issues.

Its pretty embarrassing (which I am glad) that the PVV is not winning overwhelmingly in an era where populism is at his height.  

[DavidB.]

Fortunately weed legalization was passed already, so it "only" has to pass the senate now (which remains doubtful). The proposal on assisted suicide for those who don't qualify for euthanasia would likely be retracted in a coalition with CDA, CU and SGP; this would probably be a key demand. Other than that I cannot think of any "social" issues that are salient right now. Much could happen outside the coalition too.

D66 would find CU on its side on environmental issues.