Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Ascher looks and speaks like a cartoon character.

All candidates agree that Islam is not a threat to Dutch identity. Its a poorly phrased question. Bruma is right, the issue is religious extremism, but there you see the effect of Geertje.

Klaver exposing Christian extremist hypocrisy when it comes to the question though. Against gay marriage, against equal rights for women. Same intolerance different religion. EDIT : and now Pechtold too.

[DavidB.]

Buma: "Why do you not support locking up jihadists coming home?"
Klaver: "The CDA were against gay marriage, the KVP were against the right to women's self-determination"

Full edgy internet atheist

[mvd10]

The current CDA and it's voters fully supports gay marriage. There have been multiple homosexual/lesbian CDA ministers. CDA opposed gay marriage in 2001, but the majority of VVD MP's including their leader Bolkestein opposed gay marriage in the mid 90s (they did vote for it in 2001 though). So it's cheap to attack CDA over this imo.

[Zinneke]

Buma: "Why do you not support locking up jihadists coming home?"
Klaver: "The CDA were against gay marriage, the KVP were against the right to women's self-determination"

Full edgy internet atheist

We are forgetting that we are also capable of ''backwards'' mentalities, and it was the Left who had to stick up for women and gay rights, not Wilders', and certainly not Bruma's gang. That's what Klaver was saying.

Its a response to this insinuation that the Left are a fifth column for religious islamist conservatives. You half-quoted Bruma.

The current CDA and it's voters fully supports gay marriage. There have been multiple homosexual/lesbian CDA ministers. CDA opposed it in 2001, but the majority of the VVD MP's including the leader Bolkestein opposed gay marriage in the 90s (they did vote for it in 2001 though). So it's cheap to attack CDA over this imo.

See above. Plus what Pechtold and Asscher said : Dutch identity as it stands is not to be determined by politicians. Bruma still sticking to the Christian argument is just pandering to the missing elephants in the room.

[DC Al Fine]

Buma: "Why do you not support locking up jihadists coming home?"
Klaver: "The CDA were against gay marriage, the KVP were against the right to women's self-determination"

Full edgy internet atheist

This line of reasoning is so tedious. CDA is what, forty years old? People roll their eyes when hacks complain about the Conservative Party of Canada's predecessors. That merger was a mere 13 years ago

[Zinneke]

Roemer votes no to the proposition of taking in more refugees. Interesting.

[DavidB.]

Klaver and Pechtold vote for taking in more refugees, Roemer, Buma and Asscher against. Asscher thinks the limit has been reached and wants to introduce EU quota, Roemer says he wants to take away the causes abroad while never turning away true refugees.

Roemer is surprisingly strong. Buma is also strong but comes across as a bit too angry.

[mvd10]

The SP already is well to the left of their base on issues like refugees. Saying that the Netherlands should take in more refugees would make this rift even bigger (and drive away more SP voters to the PVV). The SP doesn't draw young college educated idealists like Bernie or Corbyn do, the SP base still mainly consists out of lower educated workers.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, Roemer is being hypocritical by voting "no" and gets away with it due to Wilders' absence. He knows it too. Strategically smart, though.

Frits Wester, the moderator, is clearly biased against Roemer, by the way.

[mvd10]

Yeah, Roemer is being hypocritical by voting "no" and gets away with it due to Wilders' absence. He knows it too. Strategically smart, though.

Frits Wester, the moderator, is clearly biased against Roemer, by the way.

Wester used to work for the CDA. He probably still is a CDA member.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, Roemer is being hypocritical by voting "no" and gets away with it due to Wilders' absence. He knows it too. Strategically smart, though.

Frits Wester, the moderator, is clearly biased against Roemer, by the way.

Wester used to work for the CDA. He probably still is a CDA member.

Big if true. How is that allowed btw.

Pechtold on top form tonight. Him and Bruma the big winners for me, but then their competitor, Rutte, is away so they had to be.
 
Roemer may have restarted to SP campaign. Asscher is just a suit with some good lines. Asscher looked nervous, will not be seen as PM material which is unfortunate.

[DavidB.]

@mvd10: Yeah, but that's not necessarily a problem -- but his opinions shouldn't matter to his treatment of the candidates.

I think Roemer and Pechtold are the strongest two debaters right now. Klaver is doing okay but not the shining star the left will start rallying around (yet). Asscher is just boring. Buma is doing fine.

[mgop]

I truly hope that D666 and GL remain outside the government, they are the worst.

[DavidB.]

Preferred coalition of Klaver: CDA-PvdA-D66-GL-SP. Buma doesn't want to state his preference, wants a "centrist government", states the CDA is a centrist party. Again restates CDA-PvdA-D66-GL-SP is not going to happen. Pechtold also doesn't want to make a choice.

[Zinneke]

Preferred coalition of Klaver: CDA-PvdA-D66-GL-SP. Buma doesn't want to state his preference, wants a "centrist government", states the CDA is a centrist party. Again restates CDA-PvdA-D66-GL-SP is not going to happen. Pechtold also doesn't want to make a choice.

I didn't catch Roemer's line about drugs and the CDA?

[DavidB.]

@Rogier: Hmmm, me neither. Probably a reference to this: http://www.ad.nl/binnenland/cda-bestuurder-opgepakt-voor-drugsfabriek-op-erf~aa662c1f/

Asscher sounds super scripted. Robot Rubio returns.

[Zinneke]

@Rogier: Hmmm, me neither.

Asscher sounds super scripted. Robot Rubio returns.

He reminds me of this guy



Also, he totally wasted his personal debate on Bruma. It was so confusing it was hilarious. I genuinely think he puffed up before the debate.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, no strategy whatsoever, just empty words. If the PvdA were serious they should have let Asscher double down and attack Klaver on his "very green, not social" plans and frame him like a kid who just doesn't fully comprehend what he's proposing. It's not as if Asscher has much to lose at this point.

[mvd10]

I wonder what Asscher's position will be if he loses 25 seats with the PvdA. Current finance minister Dijsselbloem will remain in politics, either as finance minister (if the PvdA is in government) or as MP (if they aren't). Dijsselbloem doesn't struck me as someone with leadership ambitions, but if he ends up being a lowly MP he might as well go for party leader.. He could easily get a top job in the corporate sector with his experience, I can't imagine him being a random MP for 4 years. I strongly doubt Dijsselbloem would do much better than Asscher though. And if he does it will be because of the PvdA being in opposition against a VVD-led cabinet.

I just read that D66 wants to keep Dijsselbloem as finance minister to let him finish his term as Eurogroup chairman, so maybe he won't be demoted to MP if PvdA isn't in the next government. But I'm not sure whether other coalition partners would accept this (I'm sure VVD, CDA and even the smaller parties have plenty of politicians who would like to be finance minister).

[DavidB.]

Yeah, it's a mess and it could all have been avoided if Samsom would have led the party into the inevitable loss and resigned on election night. Asscher has been incredibly stupid. Everybody foresaw this. As for Dijsselbloem, he rejected Pechtold's offer.

Samsom would have handled the debate better too. At least he comes across as a human being, not as a robot.

[DavidB.]

Flawless Beautiful Jesse 3 seats down in today's Kantar poll:

[Tender Branson]

VVD will win this (again).

PVV will implode ...

[SunSt0rm]

Eenvandaag also has a poll today. VVD & PVV equal now, and the largest party has less than 15% of the support now. 50+ implodes now as expected

VVD 22 (-1), PvdA 12 (-), PVV 22 (-4), CDA 19 (+1), SP 16 (+3), GL 15 (-), D66 17 (+1), CU 7 (+1). SGP 4 (-), PvdD 7 (+1), 50P 5 (-5), DENK 2 (+1), FvD 2 (+2).

[DavidB.]

Remarkable how EenVandaag has VVD-PVV-CDA at only 63 (I&O had them at 60) whereas Kantar (74), Ipsos (70) and Peil (72) still have them in the low/mid 70s. I think it is more likely that the latter three are right given the fact that electoral volatility is bounded and people only choose amongst a certain subset of parties, but we'll see.

[DavidB.]

According to the Kantar poll, among the 75% who already have a preference, 40% are sure (95-100%) about their choice and another 39% are reasonably sure (75%-95%). Only 7% are less than 50% sure. These figures are all highly similar to those from 14 days before the 2012 election. However, voting intention is slightly higher than in 2012, when turnout was 74.6% (2010: 75.4%). 68% say they are sure to vote, another 18% say they will probably do so. Due to the fact that olds have died in five years time, I think we're probably going to have a turnout figure of about 75% again. Turnout will also depend on whether there will be a two-horse race. A sad state of affairs when about 25% don't even bother to vote.