Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tender Branson]

According to the Kantar poll, among the 75% who already have a preference, 40% are sure (95-100%) about their choice and another 39% are reasonably sure (75%-95%). Only 7% are less than 50% sure. These figures are all highly similar to those from 14 days before the 2012 election. However, voting intention is slightly higher than in 2012, when turnout was 74.6% (2010: 75.4%). 68% say they are sure to vote, another 18% say they will probably do so. Due to the fact that olds have died in five years time, I think we're probably going to have a turnout figure of about 75% again. Turnout will also depend on whether there will be a two-horse race. A sad state of affairs when about 25% don't even bother to vote.

That's similar to Austrian turnout (80% in 2008 and 75% in 2013).

The Presidential election, an office that is less important than federal elections, also had 75% turnout.

I guess next year, we could see a rise again towards 80%, but only if Kurz is the ÖVP-leader and Griss joins the NEOS-ticket. All of this would be great for turnout because it would create a 3-way race for first place and other voters have an incentive to vote as well.

Similarly, a bitchfight between VVD and PVV would probably increase turnout in the Netherlands and the same in Germany between CDU/CSU and SPD ...

I always like it when turnout goes up in times of falling turnout, like we have seen after the migrant waves in the past few years (in the Austrian state elections turnout was up significantly, also in German state elections and the 3 rounds of the Presidential election last year).

[DL]

Similarly, a bitchfight between VVD and PVV would probably increase turnout in the Netherlands and the same in Germany between CDU/CSU and SPD ...

I don't see much comparison there. In a close race between the CDU and SPD, the party with even one seat more supplies the chancellor - so it actually MATTERS whihc of those parties is bigger. In the Netherlands, it doeasnt really matter whether VVD or PVV is the biggest party since any way you slice it Geert Wilders is NOT going to become PM.

[DavidB.]

This is not a thread on Austrian elections and it is slightly tiring that you make everything about Austria, but yes, pollsters found out turnout would go up in a VVD/PVV two-horse race despite the fact that Geert Wilders almost has a 0% chance of becoming PM at this point.

[Zinneke]

Thank god Dutch people are smart enough not to be fooled twice into the two-horse race logic.

''Look at me, I *won* with 20% of the seats'' - Rutte/Wilders on election day.

[DavidB.]

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

[SunSt0rm]

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

Thank god, Wilders refuses to appear at any occurance so no two horse race can occur and besides he will slip more in the polls because of his refusal

[DavidB.]

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

Thank god, Wilders refuses to appear at any occurance so no two horse race can occur and besides he will slip more in the polls because of his refusal

I'm afraid you're right and increasingly frustrated over that. If the PVV slip away so far that they aren't going to be first anyway and FVD structurally poll at 1 seat or more, I may vote for Baudet. If the PVV f**k up this time, they deserve to be replaced with something better. But there's still a 95% chance that I will vote for Gidi.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently not. In 2012 it was not on a Sunday. They could have known this would be an unfortunate choice. Pretty sad state of affairs when a potential government party gets sidelined like that. But hey, it's 2017, etc.

How does the Reformed community deal with this sentiment in day to day life? There are some complaints in my church about how it's harder for kids to get part time jobs that don't break the Sabbath, but it's not that bad and Calvinists are a small minority in the small Christian community.

However, the Netherlands is more socially liberal and Sabbath keeping Calvinists are a larger portion of society than Canada. Does this lead to much tension?

[Dutch Conservative]

However, the Netherlands is more socially liberal and Sabbath keeping Calvinists are a larger portion of society than Canada. Does this lead to much tension?

The former is certainly true, the Netherlands are more socially liberal. But I do not think calvinist are a larger group here. For many christians it isn't a problem to go shopping on a sunday, so they are fine with a debate on sunday. Only the traditional Reformed churches (many of who vote for SGP) keep sunday as the Sabbath. So there isn't much tension.

I don't care for the two-horse race but I do care for a large PVV and a large VVD. Still hoping for the race to begin

Thank god, Wilders refuses to appear at any occurance so no two horse race can occur and besides he will slip more in the polls because of his refusal

I'm afraid you're right and increasingly frustrated over that. If the PVV slip away so far that they aren't going to be first anyway and FVD structurally poll at 1 seat or more, I may vote for Baudet. If the PVV f**k up this time, they deserve to be replaced with something better. But there's still a 95% chance that I will vote for Gidi.

Agree, I think this development can become a real threat for the PVV. Today they announced to start campaigning again. I think the recent pollnumbers show they just need to be more visible.

[DavidB.]

How does the Reformed community deal with this sentiment in day to day life? There are some complaints in my church about how it's harder for kids to get part time jobs that don't break the Sabbath, but it's not that bad and Calvinists are a small minority in the small Christian community.

However, the Netherlands is more socially liberal and Sabbath keeping Calvinists are a larger portion of society than Canada. Does this lead to much tension?

Most devout Protestants live in municipalities with large numbers of other devout Protestants. In smaller, rural Bible Belt municipalities, shops are closed on Sundays and much has remained the same over the decades. On the other hand, communities in a place like Rotterdam know the city will do on Sundays what it does throughout the week.

Most tensions therefore occur in medium-sized municipalities with both a large number of Sunday-keeping Protestants and of non-Protestants. In the municipality of Ede, for instance, the Christian parties SGP, CDA and CU have 19 seats on the municipal council; secular parties have 20. It was decided that a referendum on the opening of shops on Sundays would be organized. The municipality consists of the city of Ede and a number of villages that are 85%> Orthodox Protestant. What happened was that "no" won on all questions due to the extremely high "no" percentages in the smaller villages, even if the two "yes" options had won in the city of Ede. Despite this rejection, the secular majority decided that supermarkets would open in Ede City (but shops outside Ede City remain closed), which, of course, proved to be a controversial decision -- but then again, "no" always means "yes" in Dutch referendums Most of the tensions between secular and Orthodox Protestant communities revolve around the Sunday, but even in these cases I wouldn't say there is "much tension". People usually accept the outcome of the decision-making process even if they disagree with it.

Even in the big (and non-Christian) city where I live, almost all shops are forced to close early on Sundays. I usually have no qualms with casting an SGP vote, but I always make sure to vote for a secular party in municipal elections (i.e. VVD) because I don't like having to ride my bike for half an hour to go to the supermarket on Sundays after 6

[DC Al Fine]

How does the Reformed community deal with this sentiment in day to day life? There are some complaints in my church about how it's harder for kids to get part time jobs that don't break the Sabbath, but it's not that bad and Calvinists are a small minority in the small Christian community.

However, the Netherlands is more socially liberal and Sabbath keeping Calvinists are a larger portion of society than Canada. Does this lead to much tension?

Most devout Protestants live in municipalities with large numbers of other devout Protestants. In smaller, rural Bible Belt municipalities, shops are closed on Sundays and much has remained the same over the decades. On the other hand, communities in a place like Rotterdam know the city will do on Sundays what it does throughout the week.

Most tensions therefore occur in medium-sized municipalities with both a large number of Sunday-keeping Protestants and of non-Protestants. In the municipality of Ede, for instance, the Christian parties SGP, CDA and CU have 19 seats on the municipal council; secular parties have 20. It was decided that a referendum on the opening of shops on Sundays would be organized. The municipality consists of the city of Ede and a number of villages that are 85%> Orthodox Protestant. What happened was that "no" won on all questions due to the extremely high "no" percentages in the smaller villages, even if the two "yes" options had won in the city of Ede. Despite this rejection, the secular majority decided that supermarkets would open in Ede City (but shops outside Ede City remain closed), which, of course, proved to be a controversial decision -- but then again, "no" always means "yes" in Dutch referendums Most of the tensions between secular and Orthodox Protestant communities revolve around the Sunday, but even in these cases I wouldn't say there is "much tension". People usually accept the outcome of the decision-making process even if they disagree with it.

Even in the big (and non-Christian) city where I live, almost all shops are forced to close early on Sundays. I usually have no qualms with casting an SGP vote, but I always make sure to vote for a secular party in municipal elections (i.e. VVD) because I don't like having to ride my bike for half an hour to go to the supermarket on Sundays after 6

Thanks for the explanation.

[Diouf]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the party/parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for the party/parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

[Zinneke]

PVV were relied upon while being outside of government before and they still managed to piss off their partners. The CDA especially suffered (PvdA benefiting) along with traditionally the one who collapses the coalition, hence PVV also collapsing. So I think the Left would be mad not to call Rutte's bluff if he tries to say that he needs the PVV votes to govern. The Left parties know that the VVD will look silly if they ally with PVV*, and as demonstrated by Klaver's stumble, any hint that a Left party wants to ally with Rutte is electoral suicide. What Rutte could do in a different context is ask Wilders to leave the party in a scalping move to tempt the Left but WIlders owns the party so it will never happen.
 

I'm not tempted to watch this week-ends debate with Goldielocks involved because you just know that every single party leader will want to call him up for the 1 vs 1 (it'd be funny if Asscher does it first though). Maybe a few of the left-wing parties will be smart and call up Rutte to play to their core.


*MR sold their coalition with the N-VA well here - after saying several times they would not allow it -  by black balling any state reform policy from the nationalists. Rutte doesn't have the leeway to restrict certain PVV policies over others since he has said he is against their economic program first and foremost, then the fact that PVV are divisive nativists. His rank and file are of the same opinion.

[mvd10]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the two parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for these two parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

D66 probably will make sure the government doesn't make any deals with the PVV.

Buma apparently hates Rutte, so maybe he will try to become PM of a CDA-D66-GroenLinks-PvdA-SP coalition. He denied it and it would be complete suicide for the CDA but don't underestimate the CDA's lust for power (and their base will die out the next 10 years so they might as well go out with a blaze). I don't think it will actually happen though.

I think we will end up with a VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition. GroenLinks has become more left-wing under Klaver, but I think they could support a centre-right coalition as long as that coalition is very strong on climate chance. Their base is fairly affluent and might accept a centre-right economic programme in exchange for a strong effort to reduce emissions. PvdA knows entering a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition will make sure that whatever was left of their working class base will never return.

I still don't get why the PvdA didn't push harder for Aboutaleb. Some feared that he might have ended up as Cohen 2.0 (competent and fairly popular, but got humiliated by Wilders and Rutte in the debates and screwed up every single media appearance) but that still would have been better than what's happening now. And I think Aboutaleb actually was interested in entering the leadership race.

[Diouf]

I agree that it is quite unlikely that CDA and VVD will enter into a coalition cooperation with PVV again after the debacle last time. I just figured with all the attention around Wilders and possibly PVV as the biggest party, one of the left-wing parties might use the defence of "locking out Wilders" for entering a government with the right. Even though PVV will probably be locked out anyway. But I fully agree that it would be a bad idea electorally for them to join such a right-wing government.

[DavidB.]

I have the impression that Klavermentum may not happen anymore: Pechtold is simply too strong a debater and D66 too strong a brand among progressives. Judging by the latest polls (in which GL lost seats) and conversations with GL-D66 swing voters who were inclined to vote for Klaver until last week, the D66 and PvdA campaigns against GL's "too ambitious" agenda seem to have been effective. Of course, they will still win an all-time high, but it may be 15 seats rather than 20.

I think VVD-CDA-D66-GL (the option mvd10 mentioned) and VVD-CDA-D66-CU with SGP outside support are the likeliest coalitions. Obviously D66 would prefer the option with GL, but if Klaver's gains are underwhelming (say he wins fewer than 15 seats) I think he will be less inclined to govern, and negotiations with Klaver would be tough anyway. For the second option to receive a majority, the PVV need to lose more seats to VVD/CDA while D66 have to win seats from GL. A "dark horse" option would be VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA: never underestimate how much the PvdA, and particularly people like Asscher within the PvdA, want to be in power.

[SunSt0rm]

I think the combination VVD+CDA+D66+PvdA (or VVD+CDA+D66+CU if it has a majority, but far from now) is most likely. I dont think GL will join such a coalition as Klaver is more left wing than Halsema and Sap were and the fact it had bad experience from the Kunduz coalition. I see the PvdA most likely joining such a coalition as Asscher is most open to work with the right now and I dont see him as a successfull opposition leader.

Two distnct coalitions are likely emerging after the election:
Centre right coalition: VVD+CDA+D66 plus combination of GL, PvdA and/or CU
Centre left coalition: CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+SP

The VVD, and I guees CDA and D66 are prefering the first option, while the left parties are second option. In this election, CDA and D66 are the real kingmakers who are both needed in any combination, they have momentum and are both slowly gaining in the polls as well. And my feeling is that CDA will only chose the second coalition, if the SP can be traded for the CU and Buma can become PM.

[DavidB.]

^ Worth noting that it was not Halsema who pulled the plug on Purple Plus in 2010 and that Sap only got 4 seats in 2012. The implication "if it didn't happen under Halsema it sure won't happen under Klaver" doesn't hold: GL were eager to govern, but at the time the VVD simply preferred the option with CDA and PVV. This time, the VVD will choose GL over the PVV. Your point with regard to the bad experience with Kunduz is fair, but I have the impression GroenLinks have "moved on" and seem very eager to govern, even with the VVD if necessary. I used to think a coalition with the PvdA was more likely than a coalition with GL, but that has changed.

A center-left coalition is not going to happen. Would be both illogical and electorally suicidal for the CDA, and D66 would much prefer to cooperate with the VVD too as they would form the "center" of a coalition with VVD, CDA and GL. Besides, if the VVD becomes the largest non-PVV party, they will have the initiative and others will probably follow.

[SunSt0rm]

^ Worth noting that it was not Halsema who pulled the plug on Purple Plus in 2010 and that Sap only got 4 seats in 2012. The implication "if it didn't happen under Halsema it sure won't happen under Klaver" doesn't hold: GL were eager to govern, but at the time the VVD simply preferred the option with CDA and PVV. This time, the VVD will choose GL over the PVV. Your point with regard to the bad experience with Kunduz is fair, but I have the impression GroenLinks have "moved on" and seem very eager to govern, even with the VVD if necessary. I used to think a coalition with the PvdA was more likely than a coalition with GL, but that has changed.

A center-left coalition is not going to happen. Would be both illogical and electorally suicidal for the CDA, and D66 would much prefer to cooperate with the VVD too as they would form the "center" of a coalition with VVD, CDA and GL. Besides, if the VVD becomes the largest non-PVV party, they will have the initiative and others will probably follow.

I have the opposit feeling. I think GL under Halsema and Sap were eager to govern even with the right, but that it has changed since Klaver, who is not eager to govern with the right anymore. Klaver says he strives a government without the VVD. Asscher isnt very clear yet, and I think if he is more likely to take the gamble and continue to govern as he know he cant outshine Klaver or successor of Roemer as opposition leader. The party can always sacrifice Asscher for Aboutaleb 4 years later what they used to do.

I know a centre left coalition is not very likely, but if somehow CDA+D66+PvdA+GL+CU manage to get a majority with Buma as PM, I wouldnt rule that option out.

[DavidB.]

Yes, that sounds like an interesting dark horse option too. They won't ever get a majority, but with outside support from SGP and 50Plus (and PvdD?) they probably will have one. Without the SP, this option would be much less problematic for CDA and D66. However, this will only happen if Rutte fails to form a government and both GL and PvdA don't want to govern with the VVD, which seems a stretch to me. The next government gets to spend, it won't be as austere as the last one.

Another option, by the way, is the oversized VVD-CDA-D66-GL-PvdA option, but this "national establishment coalition" was a more likely option with the PVV at 35> seats than now.

[SunSt0rm]

Poll about preferences coalitions, have no idea why the option 4 and 6 are polled lol.

VVD prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA
CDA perfer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL (but not very positively)
D66 prefer VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA and VVD+CDA+D66+GL
PVDA prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL and VVD+CDA+D66+PVDA (!)
GL+SP prefer CDA+D66+PVDA+SP+GL

[DavidB.]

That stunningly high amount of PvdA support for a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA coalition is very interesting. Of course we're speaking about the people who still vote PvdA; I imagine this figure would be much lower for PvdA-2012 voters... Probably not an effective strategy to win back voters.

These figures matter: low support among VVD voters caused the VVD to pull the plug on Purple Plus in 2010. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA suddenly doesn't even seem that unlikely anymore. It would be bizarre, though, almost unreal, for VVD and PvdA to continue their cooperation despite everything.

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos poll
VVD 28 (-)
PVV 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+3)
D66 17 (+1)
GL 13 (-)
PvdA 12 (-1)
SP 12 (+1)
50+ 6 (-3)
CU 6 (-1)
SGP 5 (-) (lol)
PvvD 5 (+1)
Denk 1
FvD 1
VNL 1

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, so the VVD are definitely larger than the PVV now.

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

I have to agree. I just really don't want to cast a tactical vote, even if it becomes increasingly tempting.