Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Some Surinamese Dutch vote PVV, especially those who have become middle-class and live in often declining suburbs in the commuter belts around the big cities. These people's prospensity to vote PVV is pretty similar to that of non-Surinamese Dutch in the same neighborhoods, which actually makes sense. Some Surinamese people in The Hague and Rotterdam also vote PVV. The PVV's performance with Hindustani Surinamese Dutch may be even higher than with ethnic Dutch.

[Zinneke]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

[DavidB.]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

No, they are "westerse allochtonen". But most Eastern Europeans who live here don't have Dutch citizenship and therefore don't vote in national elections.

[DavidB.]

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

It is a bit difficult to keep track on, because they are a small yet tight-knit, spread-out (with certain dissimilar municipalities all across the country harboring sizeable communities) and relatively poor community that often feels betrayed by the Netherlands, which, given our shameful history in this regard, is very understandable. Those who have intermarried probably vote relatively similar to the national average. But those who are still in the "Moluccan world" first and foremost appear not to turn out: according to a University of Amsterdam estimate, only 26% of Moluccans in Breda voted in the 2006 general election, whereas total turnout in Breda was 77%. As for voting behavior among those who do vote, I suspect many people in Moluccan communities may be inclined to vote for the PvdA (but 2006 Breda: 25% among Moluccans, only 5 points higher than average), especially those in the North (the SP may do well there too). Communities in the center of the country (Culemborg, where racial tensions between Moluccans and Moroccans were an issue a few years ago) and in working-class and lower middle-class suburbs (Capelle aan den IJssel, Krimpen aan den IJssel) may also have sizeable minorities that vote for the PVV. CDA/CU are also possibilities, since some are pretty religious Christians. SP could be an option too.

Perhaps Christian immigrants from the Middle East and Indonesia? I could also imagine Ayaan Hirsi Ali types being PVV voters these days.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali is an anomaly, truly one of a kind. People of Indonesian descent count as Western immigrants because of our colonial history (yet, weirdly, Surinamese do not). Christian immigrants from the Middle East, who often live in the East of the country, used to be a reliable CDA demographic but do start voting PVV more and more often.

[mvd10]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

[DavidB.]

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

[DavidB.]

Today's Ipsos poll partly confirms my suspicion that the I&O one was a junk poll or at least an outlier. Kantar's previous poll with the PVV at 35 was probably an outlier too (though 35 could have been within the margin of error). I&O structurally underpoll the right significantly compared to the other pollsters, which is pretty unbelievable since most voter movements take place within certain subsets of parties. VVD-CDA-PVV aren't suddenly going to receive only 60 seats. This Ipsos poll seems pretty credible to me (though SGP at 5, wut).

AP = other parties: 1 DENK, 1 FVD (which means Kantar, I&O, Peil and Ipsos all have them at 1).

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

Yes, sound arguments but I'm still not so sure any of the other left-wing parties would want to associate themselves with Rutte after PvdA's experience. For example, I think the way GL can ''get away'' with an alliance with VVD with their electorate is by making Rutte a sacrificial lamb, because he is now undoubtedly the leading figure of right-wing politics. Sometimes gunning down one of the enemy's big hitters is enough for our electorate, unfortunately.

Also, addressing the PM question, if we are headed for a 5 party coalition I think the CDA would be ideally placed, no? Bruma is a bit of a wet flannel who lacks Rutte's leadership skills, but as I said above I can't imagine a situation where GL or even PvdA let VVD cling on to the premiership. If PVV win a plurality then the ''rule'' that the most votes gets to be PM goes out of the window.  

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

Is that not linked to the fact that Rutte has shown undoubtedly good leadership of both his party, his coalition and in some cases, admittedly, his country? What is mean is, trustworthiness for some people is a safe pair of hands rather than not being guilty of quasi-criminality?

[DavidB.]

Fair point as for your response to me. An interesting observation that Buma would be well-placed to become PM. He would certainly be more acceptable to GL than Rutte. In that case, Pechtold would be an option too (G-d no G-d no G-d no, I'd even prefer Flawless Beautiful Jesse because at least that would be hilarious). These are definitely scenarios within the realm of possibility. But I still think it is more likely that Rutte stays on. His position within the VVD is and will remain extremely strong, and it is easier to find a replacement for GL than for the VVD.

Interesting times!

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

[Zuza]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Some Surinamese Dutch vote PVV, especially those who have become middle-class and live in often declining suburbs in the commuter belts around the big cities. These people's prospensity to vote PVV is pretty similar to that of non-Surinamese Dutch in the same neighborhoods, which actually makes sense. Some Surinamese people in The Hague and Rotterdam also vote PVV. The PVV's performance with Hindustani Surinamese Dutch may be even higher than with ethnic Dutch.

Still, 7 % is surprisingly high, considering that among non-immigrants 8 % voted PVV, basically the same percentage.

[SunSt0rm]

Ethobarometer got different numbers. i think its difficult to measure the vote of people with migrant background as the numbers of voters are very small and before the creation of Denk there was no need to measure their vote

[DavidB.]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

As for your other post, these CBS data refer to the 2012 election, whereas the Etnobarometer refers to immigrants' current political opinion (and, apparently, is a total junk poll debunked by renowned Dutch political scientists Bethlehem and Van Holsteyn). But yes, this group is obviously extremely hard to poll.

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

[DavidB.]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

(But I'll repeat once more to our lurkers who are less familiar with Dutch politics than us: I think this is an extremely unlikely scenario).

[SunSt0rm]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

Ok, in that way. Still very improbable as, I think Rutte leadership skills are needed, which everyone appreciates of him. I dont think the PM position has ever been negotiated since the 70s. And I dont think the VVD will accept that it will be negotiated if they become the largest non-PVV.

[Zinneke]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

Because of what DavidB said + the average left-wing voter probably doesn't know about VVD internal politics and just wants Rutte gone. But I agree that they also probably want the whole of the VVD gone which will be unfeasible.

I may also be basing myself too much on our coalition practices. Like how there were almost always 3 PM candidates from xy parties that are ''black balled'' by coalition partner z during negotiation process due to their unpopularity with z party's electorate. In the NL's case, I think they know what their electorates would accept, and I doubt its Rutte appearing on the radio every friday as PM again.

The PM position could be negotiated this time round because otherwise Wilders would be the candidate if he ''wins''. The fact that VVD can't go into this election saying they have won is a loss for Rutte in itself. The balkanisation of this election is hiding the fact that this is a pretty strong anti-incumbent vote.

[DavidB.]

I don't think the average left-wing voter hates Rutte that much (though it is useful to differentiate between middle-class PvdA/GL voters and more working-class voters outside "Holland", the latter of which are more likely to dislike him thoroughly). They probably just want different policies. Which, let's be honest, is not going to happen, because any coalition that includes VVD, CDA and D66 is not going to be to the current government's left, though it is true they have some more room to splurge. But Klaver is an idealist and may be playing the long game. If he goes into opposition, he may damage the PvdA even more. It would not be smart for him to enter the government without the PvdA, and I don't know whether both would be welcome if that means the coalition is "oversized" -- but we will see.

As for your other remark, yes, this is a strong anti-incumbent vote, and I think the message would have been a lot clearer if those disappointed PvdA voters had gone to the SP (who are currently losing more than the PVV, though nobody is watching) instead of GL. Of course, as I said, we will get the exact same policies after the political earthquake that is likely to take place on March 15, and this, in my opinion, does not reflect positively on our political system. Elections should matter.

[jeron]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

No, you misunderstand. Rogier's point is that Buma or Pechtold, who would be more acceptable to GL, would become PM in that case. Rutte could even remain on as VVD leader. Schippers and Zijlstra don't come into the picture.

Ok, in that way. Still very improbable as, I think Rutte leadership skills are needed, which everyone appreciates of him. I dont think the PM position has ever been negotiated since the 70s. And I dont think the VVD will accept that it will be negotiated if they become the largest non-PVV.

Exactly. And in the 60s and 70s the PM position was negotiated between the largest Christian parties, that already cooperated and eventually merged into CDA. Buma would probably be a Balkenende like disaster so I can't imagine anyone would want that. Both D66 and GL would prefer Rutte over Buma.

[mvd10]

Offering Rutte the foreign affairs position would piss off some VVD politicians. Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (defense minister) and Han ten Broeke (MP) are already positioning themselves to be the next foreign affairs minister. Buma probably will end up at justice (I hope it will destroy his career, I really can't stand him). Idk about Pechtold. Education is a traditional D66 issue but it's a fairly low position for someone like Pechtold. Interior maybe? I wonder who will get the most important jobs in the next cabinet. Some high profile politicians will be dissapointed, especially if it's a 5 party coalition.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, interesting point. I could see Pechtold at the Interior. D66 may also get Social Affairs. Omtzigt (CDA) could get Finance.

I really hope Ten Broeke gets Foreign Affairs, the guy is as good as it possibly gets for a European center-right party. I do think he's the VVD's first choice by now. Van Baalen would also be a good option. But somehow I wonder whether the VVD can get both the PM and Foreign Affairs. My worst fear is that D66 Foreign Affairs spokesman Sjoerdsma gets it. Foreign Affairs, of course, is also truly a D66 issue. But maybe they can appoint In 't Veld?

Hennis is an embarrassment and should not return to Defense either (though she probably will). Perhaps I'm the only one with this opinion in the current year, but for the Defense Minister to get drunk on a tv show and puke in a bathroom is, in Rutte's words, "not normal."

I also wonder who will get Security and Justice. Probably either VVD or CDA, but I don't really see any politicians who seem capable of handling this monstrosity of a ministry. But Kajsa Ollongren (D66) may.

[Diouf]

According to Ipsos, Many more voters have already decided on their choice compared to this point in 2012. Almost twice as many voters have a strong preference for one party 4 weeks before the election. Around a third has a preference for one party, but still gives other parties a chance to convince them. Only 22% (11+11) have only a light preference or no preference at all, compared to 38% (22+16) at this point in 2012. This suggests that there won't be as big changes in the last weeks as in 2012. I can't see that Ipsos has yet released numbers for all parties, but they write that PVV voters are most locked in (66%), while GL voters are the least locked in (35%).

[DavidB.]

This one is also interesting (though of course this may be different on election day). Shows how incredibly dealigned Dutch voters are:

VVD:
The number of voters that view the VVD as their unique preference amounts to 9 seats, so this is technically their floor. The number of voters that view the VVD as their preferred option, but not their only option, amounts to 17 seats. The number of voters that don't view the VVD as their preferred option but sympathize with the party amounts to 22 seats. Ceiling: 48 seats.

PvdA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 22 seats. Ceiling: 33 seats.

PVV:
Unique preference: 15 seats (the highest of all parties, and exactly what they got in 2012). Preference: 12 seats. Sympathy: 14 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

SP:
Unique preference: 3 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 25 seats (but most of them are unlikely to vote for the SP as long as their campaign is piss-poor). Ceiling: 35 seats.

CDA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 14 seats. Sympathy: 23 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

D66:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 14. Sympathy: 29. Ceiling: 46 (but this has been the case forever).

CU:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 4. Sympathy: 10.

GL:
Unique preference: 4 (which is what they got in 2012). Preference: 10. Sympathy: 28. Ceiling: 42.

SGP:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 2. Sympathy: 6. Ceiling: 11 (lol).

PvdD:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 3. Sympathy: 9. Ceiling: 14.

50Plus:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 6. Sympathy: 16. Ceiling: 25.

[Diouf]

Ipsos ten most important net voter movements since 2012.

PvdA > GL 6.8 seats
PvdA > non-voters 6.4 seats
VVD > PVV 5.2 seats
PvdA > D66 3.0 seats
non-voters > PVV 2.6 seats
VVD > CDA 2.6 seats
PvdA > 50Plus 2.4 seats
PvdA > PVV 2.2 seats
VVD > non-voters 2.2 seats
PvdA > SP 2.0 seats

[DC Al Fine]

This one is also interesting (though of course this may be different on election day). Shows how incredibly dealigned Dutch voters are:

VVD:
The number of voters that view the VVD as their unique preference amounts to 9 seats, so this is technically their floor. The number of voters that view the VVD as their preferred option, but not their only option, amounts to 17 seats. The number of voters that don't view the VVD as their preferred option but sympathize with the party amounts to 22 seats. Ceiling: 48 seats.

PvdA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 22 seats. Ceiling: 33 seats.

PVV:
Unique preference: 15 seats (the highest of all parties, and exactly what they got in 2012). Preference: 12 seats. Sympathy: 14 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

SP:
Unique preference: 3 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 25 seats (but most of them are unlikely to vote for the SP as long as their campaign is piss-poor). Ceiling: 35 seats.

CDA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 14 seats. Sympathy: 23 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

D66:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 14. Sympathy: 29. Ceiling: 46 (but this has been the case forever).

CU:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 4. Sympathy: 10.

GL:
Unique preference: 4 (which is what they got in 2012). Preference: 10. Sympathy: 28. Ceiling: 42.

SGP:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 2. Sympathy: 6. Ceiling: 11 (lol).

PvdD:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 3. Sympathy: 9. Ceiling: 14.

50Plus:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 6. Sympathy: 16. Ceiling: 25.

Very interesting. I like how it shows D66's ridiculously massive gap between floor and ceiling.