Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Intell]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

[Zinneke]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

Yeah, well, one day he will grow out of it. Its best just to ignore the total hypocrisy of the alt-right. They will make their own bed and lay in it. I just hope they go back to being non-voters when they realise its a sham.

[DavidB.]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

[JA]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

I have not met a 50+ voter, but I imagine that a lot of them are a mix of former PVV, but also PvdA and SP, all of whom have simply given up on political structures and merely want a force that protects the direct interests of the baby boomers. Economically they are definitely what you would call old school left. But I think they remain the only party to have not ruled out governing with the PVV.

I'm not sure these parties you mention would be able to agree on a budget, which is one of the key points in coalition making. Rutte has said his first reason for ruling out the PVV as a partner is that they have an economic program similar to the SP. This is tactic similar to the UMP in France against FN, that doesn't really work at least allows them to secure their right-wing base.

In the case of the NL though we still have to remember that the VVD is fundamentally a neo-liberal party, and that they will form coalitions with parties that allow them to continue the NL's status as the good student of European fiscal policy. A coalition with PVV and 50+ probably requires abandoning that status.

And then there is the First Chamber majority.

By the way, tp put the PVV's lead into perspective, here is a graphical representation of how the parliament would look.

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

[DC Al Fine]

In order of size: VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU is the most discussed I think. Diverse coalition would be an understatement.

[DavidB.]

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

The most likely option seems to be a government -- either with a minority or a majority in parliament -- consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 together with or sustained from the outside by at least one (but likely more) of CU, PvdA, GL (CU most likely to govern, then PvdA, then GL) with additional occasional support of 50Plus and/or SGP. Such a coalition would be devoid of any political color and doubtlessly make the PVV even bigger. From a democratic perspective, it is also problematic when there is no real policy alternative to a certain coalition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If I was to put money on it, I would ultimately bet on VVD-CDA-D66 with back-up from the Christian parties and 50Plus to make up the majority in both houses. (that government would have 35 seats in the Senate, so would require 3 more votes to pass legislation which they could easily get from 50Plus, CU or SGP.)

(also hahaha SP's leader in the senate is called Tiny Kox haha)

What possible coalition could be formed if those were the results? It'd have to span the political spectrum quite considerably, which is potentially problematic.

The most likely option seems to be a government, either with a minority or a majority in parliament, consisting of VVD, CDA, D66 together with or sustained from the outside by at least one (but likely more) of CU, PvdA, GL (CU most likely to govern, then PvdA, then GL) with additional occasional support of 50Plus and/or SGP. Such a coalition would be devoid of any political color and doubtlessly make the PVV even bigger. From a democratic perspective, it is also problematic when there is no real policy alternative to a certain coalition.

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

[Intell]

PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA-CU, with support from the GL, and 50 Plus?

[DavidB.]

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

VVD-CDA-D66 would be pretty coherent ideologically, yes, but it becomes a different story if more parties enter the government (though CU wouldn't be an issue). I'm also not arguing the current situation is good; I prefer ideologically distinct coalition alternatives.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA-CU, with support from the GL, and 50 Plus?

At a guessm PvdA aren't going to be rushing into any coalition unless they really are obligated. They are at the sort of levels where a period of recovery is needed. (and given the Netherlands; volatile electorate, they'll probably be polling at landslide levels within ten weeks of the next government being formed. Or alternatively polling below DANK and PvdD.)

I would argue that such a situation is significantly better to now, because all three of the "government parties" would be unmistakably, err, bourgeois; and not is as inherently awkward as the effect the grand coalition has had on PvdA (because a decline in the non-bobo centre-left has never been great for discourse).

VVD-CDA-D66 would be pretty much ideologically coherent, yes, but it becomes a different story if PvdA and/or GL also enter the government.

Are either of them really needed to be honest? If a government needs 76, and the basic main three borg. parties are polling around 60-65 at the moment (and this is assuming people attracted by "stability" don't rally round the flag of the "sensible parties". Considering the Christians will give you a dependable 8 or so seats, all you have to ensure is that 50Plus don't lose votes (unless they lose votes to CDA or VVD I guess) and you have a narrow, and vaguely coherent government.

[DavidB.]

Are either of them really needed to be honest? If a government needs 76, and the basic main three borg. parties are polling around 60-65 at the moment (and this is assuming people attracted by "stability" don't rally round the flag of the "sensible parties". Considering the Christians will give you a dependable 8 or so seats, all you have to ensure is that 50Plus don't lose votes (unless they lose votes to CDA or VVD I guess) and you have a narrow, and vaguely coherent government.

Well, it's very unlikely for GL to enter the government (for the PvdA not so much, since Asscher wants power and may be out as party leader if he has to be in opposition), but I'd say there is a more than 50% chance that VVD, CDA, D66, CU and 50Plus don't have a majority in parliament (they do have one in the Senate) -- and that's where the problems would start. They would never get anything close to the kind of commitment you can build a government on from the SGP (if that would be enough for a majority in the first place), and a minority government without 76> seats to sustain it would be frowned upon. I think the center-right will end up in the position where they have to cooperate with a left-wing party, not necessarily in the government but at least to sustain it from the outside.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

didn't Rutte I rely on the SGP in the senate?

[DavidB.]

didn't Rutte I rely on the SGP in the senate?

Yes, but that is a very shaky, unstable type of relationship -- at the time it also required concessions that a coalition including D66 instead of the PVV would be less likely to be comfortable with, such as maintaining the position of civil servants who do not want to perform same-sex marriages. The SGP probably isn't going to make a minority government collapse, but they will want to have real influence. Not having a majority in parliament is also (still) more problematic than not having a majority in the Senate.

To be clear, I'm not saying it's unlikely a center-right government would cooperate with the SGP and have it sustain a minority government from the outside -- that scenario is highly likely. However, talks and perhaps even some sort of formalized agreement will be necessary, which will give the government even less leeway. They cannot just take the SGP's support for granted. And the question remains whether VVD-D66-CDA-CU-50Plus-SGP will even have a majority, which I doubt.

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

Yeah, well, one day he will grow out of it. Its best just to ignore the total hypocrisy of the alt-right. They will make their own bed and lay in it. I just hope they go back to being non-voters when they realise its a sham.

I see, I ran into two real experts with lots of arguments ;-)

Nevertheless, thanks for your long answer above, it doesn't really answer my basic question but at least you tried.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

it is not possible to form a stable government with PVV and any party.

[DavidB.]

As I expected, the VVD has today reached a new stage in its campaign by moving to the right and talking tough after excluding the PVV. In a "letter to the Dutch people", widely published today, Mark Rutte states that "something is going on with our country" and denounces "those who came to our country for our freedom yet now abuse those freedoms", "people who don't want to adapt to our society and dismiss our traditions and values, "I understand very well that many people think: if you dismiss our country in such a fundamental way, I'd prefer you leave. That's how I feel too. Either behave yourself or leave." This is a recurring theme on the Dutch center right and reminiscent of Balkenende's talk on "norms and values" which went over very well among generic right-wingers in the suburbs. The cynic in me also notes that this is not and will never be tied to actual policies: Rutte is merely selling feelings. At the same time he also denounces "those who want to divide our society" (=Wilders) and ends his letter with stating that despite everything, he wouldn't want to live anywhere else. "Would you?"

Rutte seeks to present himself as a tough-talking PM who "tells it like it is" yet at the same time as a Prime Ministerial, responsible leader who denounces everything that can be seen as divisive. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will work, but my gut feeling says it just may. At the same time, Buma/Pechtold will attack him on the continuation of the "piss off" theme (which he said in a tv show in October referring to immigrant youth harassing people) and Wilders will attack him on the fact that he doesn't actually propose anything to make people "piss off" and that his statements are not tied to actual proposals for policies. Opinion polls show that people view Rutte as the "lesser evil" and prefer him as PM over most other party leaders, yet at the same time do not believe him: he has a real credibility problem. Still, the VVD's campaign seems to be improving.

[Klartext89]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

Thank you, always astonishing that These hard-core Christians are doing anything to get their culture abolished and destroyed.

[Klartext89]

As I expected, the VVD has today reached a new stage in its campaign by moving to the right and talking tough after excluding the PVV. In a "letter to the Dutch people", widely published today, Mark Rutte states that "something is going on with our country" and denounces "those who came to our country for our freedom yet now abuse those freedoms", "people who don't want to adapt to our society and dismiss our traditions and values, "I understand very well that many people think: if you dismiss our country in such a fundamental way, I'd prefer you leave. That's how I feel too. Either behave yourself or leave." This is a recurring theme on the Dutch center right and reminiscent of Balkenende's talk on "norms and values" which went over very well among generic right-wingers in the suburbs. The cynic in me also notes that this is not and will never be tied to actual policies: Rutte is merely selling feelings. At the same time he also denounces "those who want to divide our society" (=Wilders) and ends his letter with stating that despite everything, he wouldn't want to live anywhere else. "Would you?"

Rutte seeks to present himself as a tough-talking PM who "tells it like it is" yet at the same time as a Prime Ministerial, responsible leader who denounces everything that can be seen as divisive. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will work, but my gut feeling says it just may. At the same time, Buma/Pechtold will attack him on the continuation of the "piss off" theme (which he said in a tv show in October referring to immigrant youth harassing people) and Wilders will attack him on the fact that he doesn't actually propose anything to make people "piss off" and that his statements are not tied to actual proposals for policies. Opinion polls show that people view Rutte as the "lesser evil" and prefer him as PM over most other party leaders, yet at the same time do not believe him: he has a real credibility problem. Still, the VVD's campaign seems to be improving.

Also astonishing that these just talk no action policy of the European center-right parties are working so well in election campaigns... Just like John McCain: campaigning like a Conservative, governing like a Liberal.

Amazing stuff: "We're talking like PVV, and yeah they are right in basically every case, but we want to work with the left parties who disagree with everything we just said" lmao

[ApatheticAustrian]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

[DavidB.]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

I'm not really interested in this discussion, but know that this is not a clear-cut fact; it is highly debatable. I personally think it is partly true but much more nuanced, with the CDA also sharing a big part of the blame.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

David I probably asked that questions already but what is the approach of SGP or CU on Catholic voters if there are any?

[Zinneke]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

I'm not really interested in this discussion, but know that this is not a clear-cut fact; it is highly debatable. I personally think it is partly true but much more nuanced, with the CDA also sharing a big part of the blame.

Yes, the CDA do deserve blame for letting the clown out of the box in the first place.

How are they responsible for the fall of Rutte I though?

[Klartext89]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

Big mistake to leave the coalition in 2012, no question.

[MaxQue]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

50Plus would probably be willing to cooperate with the PVV, yes. Their leadership doesn't have any real views, just a hardon for power. They will do whatever is needed to win votes, and a coalition with the PVV may be a successful way to do so as such a government would give freebies to the elderly anyway. However, a coalition including both CU and PVV is very much impossible. The CU are very much anti-Wilders. They were opposed to the inclusion of the PVV in the Rutte-I government and their left-wing views on issues such as immigration, asylum and the environment really don't match the PVV's approach. And, of course, Mark Rutte has -- for now... -- closed the door to cooperation with the PVV too.

Thank you, always astonishing that These hard-core Christians are doing anything to get their culture abolished and destroyed.

Not really, they have more in common with hardcore Muslims than they do with secular atheists.

[DavidB.]

How are they responsible for the fall of Rutte I though?

In a reconstruction of the events that unfolded before and during the failed Catshuisoverleg/"tussenformatie", de Volkskrant concluded that Deputy Prime Minister Maxime Verhagen (CDA) had made promises to Geert Wilders that he couldn't keep because of opposition from his party. And it was clear Immigration Minister Leers (CDA) did anything he could in order not to follow through on the promises in the coalition agreement. Not surprising that the PVV, which obviously mostly wanted to see results on issues such as immigration, felt betrayed. Of course it was still a stupid decision for the PVV to terminate its support for the government, but the CDA's incessant push against delivering on promises that had already been made to the PVV and fully accepted by the VVD played a big role in the eventual collapse of the coalition.