Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

[DC Al Fine]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

Why is that though. I know Dutch politics weren't as volatile then, but one would think there would be government fatigue after two full terms of a government. What other major party could voters flow to besides CDA and Fortuyn's outfit? Or was the government just that popular?

[DavidB.]

Negotiations terminated again

[mvd10]

Balkenende wasn't a strong leader but I still think he's underrated. He managed to pass some highly controversial reforms in his second cabinet (2003-2006) and somehow managed to stay on for 8 years even though he originally started out as the CDA's sacrificial lamb in 2002 and nobody ever considered him a strong leader. Balkenende probably was one of the least experienced politicians to ever become Dutch PM. He only was an MP for 4 years when he became PM.

Why was the CDA picking a sacrificial lamb in 2002? After eight years of purple government, wouldn't CDA be thinking they could retake power?

CDA were not predicted to win the election. It was only after the local elections and an infamous dressing down of the governmental parties by Fortuyn both on live TV and his book that the campaign became about immigration and public security. Balkende had gambled on this earlier.

The CDA were still a party in turmoil throughout this period.

Why is that though. I know Dutch politics weren't as volatile then, but one would think there would be government fatigue after two full terms of a government. What other major party could voters flow to besides CDA and Fortuyn's outfit? Or was the government just that popular?

I believe the government was quite popular before Fortuyn came along. The VVD actually polled at 45+ seats in 2001 I believe. And the CDA really sucked at being in opposition.

Anyway, attempts to restart negotiations between VVD-CDA-D66-GL failed. Minority cabinet here we come?

Damn, David beat me at it

[DavidB.]

Purple govts were always reasonably popular but there had always been concerns below the surface on healthcare waiting lists, infrastructure/traffic jams, immigration/integration. It's just that none of them were convincingly addressed by mainstream political parties; once Fortuyn did it, the entire system was shaken up. Balkenende provided calm and moderacy in a time when all other party leaders came up with the most ridiculous Godwins and won the trust of the public.

[mvd10]

So the options basically are:

VVD-CDA-D66-CU

CU has repeatedly said they are interested in joining a coalition, but only if the other parties want it. It would be a logical option, if not for the fact that D66 violently killed it a couple of weeks ago. Would be humiliating for Pechtold.

VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Never underestimate the PvdA's capacity for self-destruction but I don't think they will do this.

VVD-CDA-D66-SP

Not going to happen. Can you imagine Halbe Zijlstra and Renske Leijten in one cabinet? I can't.

Minority cabinet

Should be a logical option, but (I quote David) when the Dutch hear minority cabinet they hear instability.

CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA-some other party

Not going to happen, suicide for the CDA. Buma would get the honour of being the last CDA PM ever though .

New elections

Now atlas junkies would love it, but I really don't think the voters will appreciate it. It's hard to see who would benefit from new elections. Do the voters decide to vote for VVD-CDA-D66 to end the gridlock? Are voters fed up with it and will they vote PVV/SP? Will Corbynmentum go to the Netherlands and drive young people to vote for GL? Nobody knows. The PVV's moment probably is gone. I don't see a Corbyn situation in the Netherlands because the circumstances in the UK were completely different (Brexit) and I also don't see the voters rewarding the establishment parties for this gridlock. I think parties should avoid this.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, solid analysis mvd10. Really can't see the option with CU happening anymore, but hope to be proven wrong. Most likely option VVD-CDA-D66 minority, I'd say. New elections can't be ruled out (this would be the most fun) -- but in that case a new deadlock cannot be ruled out either, as a similar fragmented result is highly likely. Options with SP and PvdA simply aren't happening (though never say never with the PvdA...).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If hypothetically fvD were to break out in the next election, could they be a more viable coalition partner than PVV?

[mvd10]

If hypothetically fvD were to break out in the next election, could they be a more viable coalition partner than PVV?

Their main talking point is breaking up the ''party cartel''. I can't see them joining it, but they still are much more viable than the PVV. They repeatedly suggested a technocratic cabinet which would seek different majorities for each proposal. And I strongly suspect there will be internal troubles in FvD, both Hiddema and Baudet have huge ego's.

But we have to keep the senate in mind. VVD-CDA-D66 doesn't have a majority there. There is no viable coalition with a majority in the senate that doesn't currently have a majority in parliament. New elections won't solve that since the next senate elections are in 2019 (the senate isn't directly elected, but the provincial elections are de facto senate elections).

[DavidB.]

In the future I could see FvD provide support to a government from the outside, which would be exemplary for the type of change that they want: fewer backroom deals and less detailed coalition agreements, more wheeling and dealing in parliament (but there's a fine line between wheeling and dealing in parliament and creating the impression that backroom deals have only become more important; in some way a detailed coalition agreement is actually pretty transparent). But they are still very new, and of course they would be vulnerable to criticism that they would be "selling out" on the wish to completely transform the system, just like D66 have. It may happen if the next election takes place in 2021 and FvD do really well, but it's unlikely if there's a snap election.

As for the government formation, I don't have a crystal ball (as has been proved numerous times on these forums) and will perhaps be proven wrong as there are always new developments, but I think the following options are possible now. From most to least likely:

1. VVD-CDA-D66 minority
2. VVD-CDA-D66-CU
3. New election
4. VVD-CDA minority
5. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Option 2 will doubtlessly be tried again now (which may take another week or two), but I don't think it will happen given the way the first attempt ended.

[DavidB.]

Tjeenk Willink giving a press conference now, speaks freely and sounds really disappointed. Pretty clear Klaver walked away. Tjeenk Willink made an outline for a legal framework for potential future migration deals that VVD, CDA and D66 agreed to, but GL did not. He called the issue "relatively trivial" but respects Klaver's decision.

[DavidB.]

So Tjeenk Willink's legal framework is basically standing EU policy and uses the same standards as the already implemented EU-Turkey deal. Not only VVD and CDA, but also D66 accepted it, and upon public release of the information even the most important pro-refugee NGO in the Netherlands today said it was, quote, "quite good". Klaver remained skeptical until last week Thursday, when experts on international law and diplomats explained everything in detail. Klaver suddenly turned, appeared to accept it ("if this is it, then it sounds acceptable to me", to the astonishment of the other party leaders), but then he went back to GL and it seems as if the party simply got cold feet and didn't want to be in a coalition, because on Friday Klaver suddenly came up with the additional demand of taking in 25,000 African refugees, which was completely new and left VVD, CDA and D66 bewildered. Klaver retracted that demand during the weekend, but the atmosphere had turned sour. On Monday Klaver came up with new additional demands, which proved to be the final straw.

Last time around Rutte, Buma and Pechtold played nice, but now they have been clear that they are pretty mad (and all the details were leaked to De Telegraaf, which didn't happen last time around). Rutte added that the most left-wing governments of Europe, in Portugal and Greece, accept this legal framework and said he was "astonished". Pechtold said that it "bordered on a lack of political will". Not a good look for GL, would have been better for them if the negotiations had collapsed over a green (environment) or left (income inequality) issue.

[jeron]

In the future I could see FvD provide support to a government from the outside, which would be exemplary for the type of change that they want: fewer backroom deals and less detailed coalition agreements, more wheeling and dealing in parliament (but there's a fine line between wheeling and dealing in parliament and creating the impression that backroom deals have only become more important; in some way a detailed coalition agreement is actually pretty transparent). But they are still very new, and of course they would be vulnerable to criticism that they would be "selling out" on the wish to completely transform the system, just like D66 have. It may happen if the next election takes place in 2021 and FvD do really well, but it's unlikely if there's a snap election.

As for the government formation, I don't have a crystal ball (as has been proved numerous times on these forums) and will perhaps be proven wrong as there are always new developments, but I think the following options are possible now. From most to least likely:

1. VVD-CDA-D66 minority
2. VVD-CDA-D66-CU
3. New election
4. VVD-CDA minority
5. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Option 2 will doubtlessly be tried again now (which may take another week or two), but I don't think it will happen given the way the first attempt ended.

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

[DavidB.]

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

5 is a bit of a wildcard, I'll give you that. It could happen all of a sudden. But I really doubt it. They say they chose for the country's interest in 2012 and will now choose for the party's interest. Governing again, with VVD-CDA-D66 of all parties, would be so incredibly damaging that I'm inclined to believe Asscher (though I know that's dangerous with a PvdA politician) and just really don't expect it to happen.

[Zinneke]

So Tjeenk Willink's legal framework is basically standing EU policy and uses the same standards as the already implemented EU-Turkey deal. Not only VVD and CDA, but also D66 accepted it, and upon public release of the information even the most important pro-refugee NGO in the Netherlands today said it was, quote, "quite good". Klaver remained skeptical until last week Thursday, when experts on international law and diplomats explained everything in detail. Klaver suddenly turned, appeared to accept it ("if this is it, then it sounds acceptable to me", to the astonishment of the other party leaders), but then he went back to GL and it seems as if the party simply got cold feet and didn't want to be in a coalition, because on Friday Klaver suddenly came up with the additional demand of taking in 25,000 African refugees, which was completely new and left VVD, CDA and D66 bewildered. Klaver retracted that demand during the weekend, but the atmosphere had turned sour. On Monday Klaver came up with new additional demands, which proved to be the final straw.

Last time around Rutte, Buma and Pechtold played nice, but now they have been clear that they are pretty mad (and all the details were leaked to De Telegraaf, which didn't happen last time around). Rutte added that the most left-wing governments of Europe, in Portugal and Greece, accept this legal framework and said he was "astonished". Pechtold said that it "bordered on a lack of political will". Not a good look for GL, would have been better for them if the negotiations had collapsed over a green (environment) or left (income inequality) issue.

There's really no need to spin this (that's directed at the Telegraaf, not you). If I understood it correctly, GL did not like the Turkey-deal in place. End of first round negotiations. The 3 amigos then come back to GL after negotiating with CU and tell them that there is a deal on the table that replicates the Turkey deal, but in Libya. And like with all negotiations, Klaver goes "well yes no maybe." But You can't seriously expect GL to accept this and not lose their credibility with their electorate?

That's exactly the kind of foreign policy decision I was referring to. The kind that GL could collapse the government for, so its better then that they don't enter government with these three parties. The reason Klaver is getting cold feet is precisely because he can't be arsed having to do this on a case by case basis in foreign policy, and rather work with like minded people. Because that's what his party will demand with foreign policy, especially after Purple+ almost wiped them out, and Purple II wiping the PvdA out.

[Kingpoleon]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

I know this is pretty far back, but were you a D66 voter?

[DavidB.]

@Rogier: I tend to agree. GL are skeptical about the very premises that the Turkey deal is based on from a moral point of view, and while I disagree with that opinion, I can respect it. The reason why I still think Klaver deserves to be blamed, however, is that he left the door open and at some point even genuinely gave the impression that he was convinced that these deals may be acceptable. He kept stringing along Tjeenk Willink, VVD, CDA and D66 in thinking there may be a way to bridge their differences, and he obfuscated GL's (valid!) moral objections to the refugee deals with arguments related to international law that were subsequently debunked, which cost quite some time and energy. In that light I agree more with Sybrand Buma's disappointment over the fact that Klaver continued to leave the door open than with Herman Tjeenk Willink and (I think) Alexander Pechtold's view that this is a trivial issue. But ultimately my opinion is completely unimportant and I think most of GL's electorate will agree with Klaver's decision, though, as today's responses in De Volkskrant among other media showed, there may be a significant minority that disagree and think GL should have prioritized the environment.

[Kingpoleon]

DavidB., if GL moves a bit to the right on economics(as I understand their voters are), would they maybe merge with D66?

[DavidB.]

DavidB., if GL moves a bit to the right on economics(as I understand their voters are), would they maybe merge with D66?

There has been a lot of talk about this in the past, but political parties only merge when both are doing bad and have little perspective of doing better in the future. This clearly isn't the case right now since both D66 and GL have had great election results. GL have also moved back to the left economically under Klaver (under Halsema they were clearly more right-wing and closer to D66 than they are right now), which has widened the gap with D66. For example, GL oppose "neoliberalism" and "economism", whereas D66 are almost the embodiment of these two -- in French terms: GL are more like Hamon, D66 like Macron. What's more, studies have repeatedly shown that the GL electorate is also clearly to the left of the D66 electorate (it is not the case that the GL electorate is to the right of the party; until recently it was quite the opposite); there is obviously some overlap, but a merger would lose voters to the left (PvdA, SP) and to the right (VVD). In short, there seems to be no reason for both to engage in talks on a merger and I don't think it will ever happen.

[DavidB.]

Forum will be presenting "important news" tomorrow, they say. I suspect it may be a cooperation deal with Leefbaar in the Rotterdam municipal election in March next year. Leefbaar are currently the largest party in Rotterdam, leading a coalition with CDA and D66, but they will face heavy competition next year due to the fact that the PVV intend to stand there for the first time. News on parties' plans in the big cities is already starting to pour in. The VVD in The Hague call themselves "the new VVD" and have moved to the left on all sorts of issues (particularly the environment and public transportation), making them almost indistinguishable from D66. In The Hague, eight parties today struck an agreement on the environment in order to reach the targets of the Paris climate agreement, which all these parties will follow in their manifestos: coalition parties D66, PvdA, HSP (center-leftish local party), VVD and CDA and opposition parties GL, PvdD and CU/SGP. The SP are not part of this agreement (perhaps they didn't like viewing the environment as priority number one), and neither are the PVV, local party Groep de Mos, and the two Islamic parties on the council, i.e. the Islam Democrats and the "former" ISIS supporters of the Unity Party.

[SunSt0rm]

It's pretty sad if even VVD, CDA and D66 can't come to an agreement. For years everyone speculated that VVD-CDA-D66 would be the centre of a new cabinet and they are not that far away ideologically. The election result also was a windfall. The last couple of polls before the election showed results which would have made a formation much harder.

So what's next? VVD-CDA-D66-CU seems logical, but Pechtold really doesn't want that since such a cabinet might very well be a Balkenende II redux. I wouldn't be surprised if Pechtold currently prefers a CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA coalition over a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition, but Buma would almost certainly block such a coalition even if he becomes PM in that case. Some sources indicated that Buma was much more hostile to GL than Rutte, so I don't think he would join an actual centre-left cabinet.

Its very sad indeed this was my prefered coalition, although I hope it was just between VVD/CDA and GL and not with D66 as well. VVD-CDA-D66-CU is going to be very difficult especially on social issues and almost suicidal for D66. VVD-CDA-D66-PvDA will be suicidal for PvDA and a centre left combination is not going to happen when the differences between CDA & GL are too big.

A minority government is also an option now.

If the differences between VVD/CDA and D66 are also too big. The final combination can also be VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP-50+ which is going to be ungly

I know this is pretty far back, but were you a D66 voter?

Yes I voted for D66. My post there is still the case now

[DavidB.]

At least now it's clear that VVD, CDA and D66 came to an agreement on asylum issues.

[DavidB.]

My guess on the Leefbaar/Forum news turned out to be right: they will cooperate in the Rotterdam municipal election. VVD newspaper De Telegraaf presented it as "Leefbaar and Forum taking on the PVV together", which is stupid and will probably hurt Leefbaar more than the PVV... Forum themselves will only stand in Amsterdam, where Baudet lives.

Informateur Tjeenk Willink today concluded that the "Buma and the seven dwarves" (CDA+D66+80 small left-wing parties) is not an option, and neither is VVD-CDA-D66-SP. For some reason he concluded that Asscher's objections to a coalition with VVD, CDA and D66 are less fixed than Roemer's, because he does consider VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA to be a serious option. Together with VVD-CDA-D66-CU, these are the two combinations that will be investigated now.

[DavidB.]

Nice local case of bizarre pre-election spendthrift: in The Hague, PvdA alderman Rabin Baldewsingh this week announced that the municipality will create a "city beach" for 400,000 euros in a poor minority neighborhood. Here's the catch: The Hague is literally located on the beach, and poor people can get a) a pass to use public transit for free (!) in all of the city, b) a free (!) bike, and c) a pass that gives them access to public swimming pools at a reduced price. The beach is 30 minutes cycling and 30 minutes by tram away from this neighborhood. Reminds me why I don't vote for the left 

[jeron]

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.

5 is a bit of a wildcard, I'll give you that. It could happen all of a sudden. But I really doubt it. They say they chose for the country's interest in 2012 and will now choose for the party's interest. Governing again, with VVD-CDA-D66 of all parties, would be so incredibly damaging that I'm inclined to believe Asscher (though I know that's dangerous with a PvdA politician) and just really don't expect it to happen.

It doesn't seem like it will happen, but who knows. A CDA/VVD minority government is even more unlikely, because who would support it? The left surely wouldn't, neither would D66 or Denk. VVD and CDA have said they will not work with PVV. That leaves SGP, CU, 50plus and FvD. No majority there (64 seats). In other words, a VVD-CDA minority government would inevitably lead to elections quite soon.