Manitoba election 2016

[DL]

For what its worth if Winnipeg is down to a 10 point PC over NDP margin and the Liberals totally evaporated...it suggests the NDP would at least save some furniture in Winnipeg and have some semblance of a foundation to build from for 2020.

[136or142]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

What's with the Greens? Do they even have candidates everywhere?

They do not. And neither do the Liberals. However, they are polling well simply because the leaders of the three main parties are all terrible.

If the Green supporters actually vote, they could win Rob Altemeyer's riding.  Is that Wolsely (Wolsey?)

P.C: 56
Green: 1

[DC Al Fine]

lol @ CBC

These articles are psephological malpractice. If someone wins by 8 votes and there has been a twenty point swing since then, their riding is not one to watch

[the506]

Apparently the Greens think they have at least an outside shot at 2 seats: Wolseley and Fort Garry.

Who knows, they may get more than the Liberals.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New Poll Insightrix Research
April 18th
PC 49% (NC)
NDP 22% (-2)
Liberal 19% (-2)
Green 9% (+4)
Other 1% (NC)


Winnipeg 40% PC, 27% NDP, 22% Liberal,
Rest of Manitoba 62% PC, 15% NDP, 14% Liberal
https://insightrix.com/voter-intentions-remain-unchanged-thefinal-weekend-provincial-election/

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New Poll Insights West
April 18th
PC 53% (+4)
NDP 28% (+2)
Liberal 10% (-7)
Green 7% (N/C)
Other 1% (NC)


Winnipeg 46% PC, 32% NDP,
Rest of Manitoba 66% PC, 19% NDP
http://www.insightswest.com/news/two-thirds-of-manitobans-want-a-change-of-government/

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

These articles are psephological malpractice. If someone wins by 8 votes and there has been a twenty point swing since then, their riding is not one to watch

Yeah, it's very frustrating.

[DL]

It's extraordinary how the Manitoba Liberala have so totally bombed in this election. So much for any Trudeau coat tails

[136or142]

Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

I totaled these numbers up myself. For some reason my riding by riding addition from the wikipedia numbers  and the total votes each party received also on wikipedia don't add up together, but I don't think the vote differences are hugely significant.  


2011 Result
Winnipeg 252,746
NDP: 129,209, 51.12% 26
P.C: 90,642, 35.86% 4
Liberal: 24,343, 9.63%, 1
Green: 8,381, 3.32%
Other: 171

The North (Flin Flon, Kewatinook, The Pas, Thompson)
Total: 14,730
NDP: 9,525, 64.66% 4
P.C: 4,207, 28.56%
Liberal: 794, 5.39%
Green: 204, 1.38%

Brandon, 15,154
NDP: 7,606, 50.19% 1
P.C: 6,732, 44.42% 1
Liberal: 658, 4.34%
Green: 158, 1.04%

Rural and Small Town Manitoba
Total: 146,314
NDP: 51,367, 35.11%, 6
P.C: 86,103, 58.85%, 14
Liberal: 6,528, 4.46%
Green: 2,103, 1.44%
Other: 213


--------------------------------------------------------------
Total result outside of Winnipeg
Total: 176,198
NDP: 68,498, 38.88% 11
P.C: 97,042, 55.08% 15
Liberal: 7,980, 4.53%
Green: 2,465 1.40%
Other: 213

------------------------------------------------------

Manitoba, 2011 Election
MY Totals:  428,944
NDP: 197,707, 46.09%
P.C: 187,684, 43.75%
Liberal: 32,323, 7.54%
Green: 10,846, 2.53%
Other: 384

Final Results provided by Wikipedia
Total: 431,302
NDP: 199,066, 46.16%
P.C: 188,528, 43.71%
Liberal: 32,420, 7.52%
Green: 10,886, 252%
Other: 394

[trebor204]

Forum Poll:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2504/ndp-liberals-closely-matched-greens-with-significant-support


http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/0075bd7f-b8da-4d7e-88a4-1e0d387dbeacManitoba%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2016%2004%2018)%20Forum%20Research.pdf


PC 52
NDP 21
LIB 18
Green 9


Wpg

PC 46
NDP 26
Lib 17
Green 10

Brandon
PC 56
NDP 23
Lib 15
Green 6

Rural

PC 60
LIB 18
NDP 13
Green 9

[Hifly]

Either Mainstreet/Insights West or Insighrix/Forum are going to have a little egg on their faces...

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/manitoba-election-prediction-pc.html

PCs 43; NDP 11; Libs 3.

Also included is a much better list of ridings to watch

[King of Kensington]

Stab in the dark, I haven't spent a lot of time combing through the riding results and polls:

PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2

[136or142]

Stab in the dark, I haven't spent a lot of time combing through the riding results and polls:

PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2

PC: 50
NDP: 6
Liberal: 1

Liberal win: John Gerrard
NDP wins (by riding) The Pas, Thompson, Point Douglas, Logan, Minto, Wolseley

So, fortunately for the NDP, the Liberal campaign flames out and they fail to replace the NDP as the official opposition (such as it is) and also the person widely expected to be the next NDP leader, Kevin Chief is reelected in Point Douglas.

Had the Green Party leader James Beddome run in Wolseley this time, I think he would have beaten Rob Altemeyer, but for some reason he decided this time to run in Fort Garry-Riverview.

[the506]

I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm bearish on the Green's chances anywhere on the prairies. Who knows though, Manitoba's ridings are so small, they might be able to convince voters in one of them to back them. And with the NDP's unpopularity right now, it might just be the perfect storm.

[lilTommy]

I'm going to be the NDP optimist...

PC - 38
NDP - 16
LIB - 3 (Tyndall Park, The Maples, River Heights)

The NDP need to lose, more specifically Sellinger needs to lose. He put his interests a head of the party and should never have run again. Had the NDP had a new leader things might be different, but every party needs time to rejuvenate no matter how much the other guy sucks. 

[136or142]

I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

I do think he will see a large swing against him (more so than the provincial average), but which party will beat him? Tories haven't won there since 1927. Liberals aren't strong enough to win there...

Even in the 2011 federal election (where the Tories won 53% of the vote in MB), they did not win the St. Boniface provincial riding.

[136or142]

I have:

PC = 44
NDP = 10 (Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson, Keewatinook, Fort Rouge, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, St. Boniface and Tyndall Park)
Liberal = 2 (Burrows and River Heights)
Green = 1 (David Nickarz in Wolseley, who apparently is running an even better campaign than Beddome)

I would be stunned if Greg Selinger was reelected.

I do think he will see a large swing against him (more so than the provincial average), but which party will beat him? Tories haven't won there since 1927. Liberals aren't strong enough to win there...

Even in the 2011 federal election (where the Tories won 53% of the vote in MB), they did not win the St. Boniface provincial riding.

True, but I can't see more than 20-25% voting for him either.  Although my prediction is for the P.Cs to win here, maybe this riding will be a complete surprise like a Green Party victory.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

51% PC (42 seats)
24% NDP (12 seats)
17% Liberals (2 seats)
  7% Greens (1 seat)
  1% Others

Turnout: 58%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

My Prediction
PC 40
NDP 12
Liberal 4
Green 1 (Wolseley)

[DC Al Fine]

Last second prediction
PC: 44
NDP: 10
Liberal: 3

[trebor204]

PC 46
NDP 10
LIB 1

[136or142]

Is the election streaming live anywhere?  I assume CBC has NHL playoff hockey.