Manitoba election 2016

[136or142]

First poll post NDP leadership race is released. NDP nearly back to numbers prior to the 'gang of 5'

P.C: 44% -4%
NDP: 29% +3%
Lib: 19% -1%
Green/Other 7%

12% undecided

Winnipeg
P.C: 35%
NDP: 34%
Liberal: 24%

The poll was conducted between March 17 and April 1 among a sampling of 1,005 Manitobans, and is within plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, said Probe.
http://metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/1332069/small-bump-in-polls-following-manitoba-ndp-leadership-vote/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/selinger-poor-choice-to-keep-as-manitoba-ndp-leader-poll-finds-1.3022348

[Hatman 🍁]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

[lilTommy]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

For the PCs, it always is with the exception of the handful of riding's the NDP takes (Brandon East, La Verendrye, Selkirk and Gimli but the last two are debatable being Northern or not)

The election will be made in Winnipeg; that will be the NDPs only saving grace, if they can rebuild their support in the city they might... might be set to win again, but it's not looking "great" The Liberals vote will be the key, if its parked and the bulk returns to the NDP, its another Selinger gov't... if it sticks with the Liberals above 2011, 7% (where they lost about 5% from 2007) it will be interesting to see which riding's a) stick NDP marginally, b) actually flip Liberal and c) the PCs sneak through.

[King of Kensington]

Well everything has to come to an end eventually.  As U of T political scientist Nelson Wiseman had noted, there's a whole generation of Manitoba voters who had nothing but NDP government in their politically conscious lives.  

[DC Al Fine]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

What was the Winnipeg result last time?

[MaxQue]

Tied in Winnipeg? Must be a lot of wasted support in the hinterland.

What was the Winnipeg result last time?

No clue but seats were NDP 26, PC 4, Lib 1.

[136or142]

An update.  The Manitoba NDP has now renominated nearly all of its MLAs who plan to run again.  

Five NDP MLAs have thus far announced they retiring at the end of this session and another two have already left the legislature.

Retiring
1.Stan Struthers (Gang of Five member, but he was also an MLA since 1995.)

2.Bidhu Jha, MLA since 2003

3.Theresa Oswald, MLA since 2003, Gang of Five member who might come back and run for the leadership post election should the Greg Selinger NDP lose.  I think though she would have a very difficult time trying to defeat the presumed front-runner Kevin Chief.

4.Jim Rondeau, MLA since 2003.  Rondeau was the first New Democrat to win a seat in a Southern Winnipeg Riding, but has been joined by a number of other New Democratic Party MLAs from that region since then.  As was pointed out above, the NDP presently dominate all of Winnipeg provincially holding 26 of the 31 ridings.

5.Nancy Allan, MLA since 1999.  

Already retired.
1.Erin Selby.  MLA since 2011. Resigned to run federally.

2.Peter Bjornson, MLA since 2003.  He had a bad back, but, Bjornson was a high school history teacher before getting elected to the legislature (he was also a Gimli Town Councilor and the owner of a small music related company) and it seems he timed his retirement in order to become eligible to rejoin the teacher's union and the school board list so as to get back into teaching.

Only around four NDP MLAs have yet to be renominated.  I would expect most will run again, though the Speaker of the House, Daryl Reid, who has been an MLA since 1990 maybe won't (not that I've heard anything).

The NDP has only nominated a few new candidates so far, and all in ridings where the incumbent has retired (one P.C retirement, the rest NDP retirements), but I would say they have nominated a surprisingly strong slate of candidates so far for a party supposedly given up for dead.  

The person who wrote an article in the Huffington Post saying that he expected the B.C Liberals would win reelection based on his view that the Liberals had nominated better candidates than the NDP (note, he didn't believe the Liberals would get reelected because they had the superior candidates, only that the better quality of their candidates indicated to him that the Liberals were the party that was being mistakenly 'sold short'.  That writer was mainly referring to the number of municipal politicians who were running for the B.C Liberals, and as their aren't all that many municipal politicians in many of the Manitoba ridings- obviously as many of the ridings are in the city of Winnipeg which has something like ten city councillors, his comment in that regard can't be easily transferred to the Manitoba situation.)

However, I think the NDP has nominated some very strong candidates (at least based on their resumes.)

1.Joe McKellep in Assiniboia (Jim Rondeau's riding) an aboriginal senior civil servant in the provincial Department of Justice who was previously a police officer.

2.Jody Gillis in River East (retiring P.C MLA Bonnie McKinnon's riding) a Business Information Technology Instructor and Curriculum Lead who is also the local shop steward and who also owns his own I.T consulting firm.  He gets a 4.5 out of 5 on 'rate my professor.'

3.Jamie Moses in St. Vital (Nancy Allan's riding) a senior workforce management analyst at Investors Group where he oversees a stuff of over 100.

4.Darcy Scheller in Dauphin (Stan Struthers riding) The business development manager at Pratt's Wholesale (a grocery wholesaler.) Pratts Wholesale is a company with 33 employees, and prior to recently taking on the business development manager position, she was the general manager of the company for 8.5 years.  My guess is she took on the less onerous position in order to run for the NDP nomination.

Nomination meeting being held right now in Gimli (Peter Bjornson's riding)
Two candidates
1.Armand Belanger, East Interlake Conservation District (EICD) Manager.  In addition to being this fairly senior civil servant, as one might expect, Mr Belanger is also a scientist.

2.Scott Carman, the Co-Owner of Ship and Plough Gastropub (and music venue).  Although he and his business partner started this pub only around two years ago it has apparently already become very popular in Gimli and hosts many concerts.  Prior to becoming a business owner, Mr Carman was a communications specialist and senior manager at a division of MTS (the private Manitoba Telephone Service.)

An elected politician, Larry Johannson, the mayor of Selkirk also considered running for the nomination, but ultimately decided he would be more effective remaining as mayor.

[136or142]

Armand Belanger won the Gimli nomination.

Incumbent one term MLA Clarence Petterson lost the NDP nomination in Flin Flon to Tom Lindsey, a retired Steelworker's Local Health and Safety Representative.  Tom Lindsey was one of the two people to run against Petterson for the nomination in 2011.

The other, Leslie Beck, is now seeking the Provincial Liberal Party nomination.  Not only is Beck a party switcher she was also elected to the Flin Flon city council in 2014 and will have to step down from that position in order to run provincially.

[RogueBeaver]

Probe: 43/29/22. MB Grits haven't polled like that since Carstairs.

[136or142]

Probe: 43/29/22. MB Grits haven't polled like that since Carstairs.

I wouldn't be surprised if the poll numbers don't change before the election, if Greg Selinger steps down as leader at the last minute.  He would have the ability to say that, more or less, he left on his own terms and that he left passing a flurry of legislation that he can claim as a legacy.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm. Per the article, last time they polled that low was 20 years ago, but the Angus-Reid poll was hilariously wrong - they had the Grits in a dead heat with Filmon's Tories for 1st.

[adma]

Given how the *federal* Grits just fared in Manitoba, I wouldn't have been surprised to see that kind of result, notwithstanding reported internal Manitoba Liberal "issues".

[136or142]

Given how the *federal* Grits just fared in Manitoba, I wouldn't have been surprised to see that kind of result, notwithstanding reported internal Manitoba Liberal "issues".

I'd have to check the final Manitoba results, but if I recall them correctly, the Federal Liberals mainly did well in Winnipeg (winning 7 of its 8 ridings), but didn't do well in the rest of the province outside of the Brandon based riding.  This poll shows the provincial Liberals at both 29% in Winnipeg and 29% in the rest of the province.

Again, my recollection of the federal results could be wrong, but based on them, were this poll simply based on Manitoban's reactions to the federal election, the provincial Liberals would likely be doing much better in Winnipeg and not doing so well in the rest of the province.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But then most of the difference between the NDP figure in that poll and federally would be from Winnipeg wouldn't it?

[136or142]

But then most of the difference between the NDP figure in that poll and federally would be from Winnipeg wouldn't it?

You are correct.  I actually hadn't previously added up the results for Manitoba outside of Winnipeg.  The Liberals received approximately 52% of the vote in the eight Winnipeg ridings, but also received 33% of the vote in the 6 other Manitoba ridings.

[adma]

Yeah, remember that NDP incumbency still vestigially "dampers" the Lib support in Winnipeg; while in the rest of the province the Grits have assumed "anti-Tory" bragging rights.  (And take away the far north, and the NDP's probably in single digits.)

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 44/27/23.

[136or142]

For the NDP nomination in Seine River to replace outgoing MLA Theresa Oswald, only one person has stepped forward, a woman named Lise Pinkos.

The jokes just write themselves.  Seine River? More like Inseine River!

Lise Pinkos is a youngish woman who is likely little known even in the riding.  However, I don't think she should be regarded as a representative example of the quality of the candidates the NDP is attracting for this election.  My guess is that most of the more prominent New Democrats in that riding are supportive of Theresa Oswald and have no interest in running with Greg Selinger.

The NDP has nominated a half dozen candidates so far (all but one in ridings held by retiring NDP incumbents and the one new nominee who defeated an incumbent) and, based on their resumes, they are mostly surprisingly strong candidates for a party that is supposed to be decimated in the upcoming election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Socialist parties often value loyalty and to have heroically-yet-vainly fought to retain a seat for the cause in bad circumstances can count in your favour in later years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Seine River is an easy PC pickup regardless of who the candidate is.  The Liberals have a better chance at winning it at this point

[136or142]

Socialist parties often value loyalty and to have heroically-yet-vainly fought to retain a seat for the cause in bad circumstances can count in your favour in later years.

I agree, but the higher profile New Democrats in Seine River likely place their loyalty with Oswald and not with Selinger.

[136or142]

Seine River is an easy PC pickup regardless of who the candidate is.  The Liberals have a better chance at winning it at this point

At this point, the NDP would be hard pressed to keep any of the southern Winnipeg ridings they hold. Those ridings have gone increasingly to the NDP starting with Nancy Allan's and Linda Asper's upset wins in 1999 as the NDP won most of them in 2011 by around 20%.  Theresa Oswald's much smaller victory there in 2011 (around 9%) I don't think should be taken as a sein that the NDP wasn't as popular in that riding as it was in the other neighboring ridings as the P.Cs ran a star candidate there.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 52/20/20/9.

[trebor204]

Former Finance Minister (and part of the rebel 5) Jennifer Howard won't be seeking re-election this April. Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari  is running in her old riding of Fort Rouge

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/jennifer-howard-re-election-ndp-manitoba-1.3422403

[lilTommy]

Former Finance Minister (and part of the rebel 5) Jennifer Howard won't be seeking re-election this April. Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari  is running in her old riding of Fort Rouge

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/jennifer-howard-re-election-ndp-manitoba-1.3422403

Star candidate Wab Kinew is going to run in Fort Rouge for the NDP, to replace Jennifer Howard.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/02/02/wab-kinew-manitoba-ndp_n_9140234.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics&ir=Canada+Politics

Kinew is the associate vice-president for indigenous relations at the University of Winnipeg and author of the bestselling book "The Reason You Walk." He also worked as a journalist with the CBC and hosted the documentary series "Eighth Fire."

That's one way to dampen the spirits of the Manitoba Liberals.