Manitoba election 2016

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 51/21/20.

[lilTommy]

Another Mainstreet Poll:

Decided:
PC: 47% NDP: 25% Liberal: 22% Green 6%

Decided and Leaning:
PC: 43% NDP: 27% Liberal: 24% Green: 7%

Winnipeg
Decided:
PC: 35% NDP: 33% Liberal: 25% Green: 8%

Decided and Leaning:
NDP: 34% PC: 32% Liberal: 26% Green: 8%

Issue based voting:
Support among those who chose economy as their top issue:
NDP: 31% PC: 24%  Liberal: 12%  Green: 1%  Undecided: 31%

Support among those who chose education as their top issue:
NDP: 30%  PC: 31%  Liberal: 9%  Green: 3%  Undecided: 29%

Support among those who chose healthcare as their top issue:
NDP: 16%  PC: 34%  Liberal: 17%  Green: 9%  Undecided: 25%

Support among those who chose taxes as their top issue:
NDP: 4%  PC: 56%  Liberal: 17%  Green: 5%  Undecided: 17%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/03/13/ndp-gain-support-in-peg

[RogueBeaver]

WTF is going on?

[DL]

This comes as no surprise to me...we are back to what we were seeing earlier where the PCs are leading by default with the same 43% they got in 2011 but where a chunk of disgruntled voters who are sick of Selinger and the NDP but don't want Pallister's fanatical rightwing policies are parking their votes with the Manitoba Liberals...but the Liberal leader is proving to be a lightweight (to say the least) and is getting lots of bad publicity.

I predict that when all the dust settles the PCs will win the election with 43-44% of the vote but the NDP will end up with about 30% and since their vote is very efficient - they could hold onto 15-20 seats while the Liberals coudld take 20% and get no more than 2 or 3 seats (if that).

Let's look back at what happened in the 1990 Manitoba election:

PCs - 42% - 30 seats
NDP - 29% - 20 seats
Liberals 28% - 7 seats

Another Mainstreet Poll:

Decided:
PC: 47% NDP: 25% Liberal: 22% Green 6%

Decided and Leaning:
PC: 43% NDP: 27% Liberal: 24% Green: 7%

Winnipeg
Decided:
PC: 35% NDP: 33% Liberal: 25% Green: 8%

Decided and Leaning:
NDP: 34% PC: 32% Liberal: 26% Green: 8%

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, Winnipeg. I guess outside of the north, the NDP will be wiped out in rural Manitoba.

[DL]

Wow, Winnipeg. I guess outside of the north, the NDP will be wiped out in rural Manitoba.

This is true but outside of the north, the NDP only has a handful of seats in rural Manitoba to begin with...this could mean the PCs will waste a lot of votes sweeping rural Manitoba seats most of which they already hold by huge margins.

BTW: The Manitoba PCs have been stuck at a ceiling of 43% support in every single Manitoba election of the last 50 years - the only exception was when they got 48% in 1977 - and that was in the context of a pure two-way contest where the Liberals vote was practically in single digits.

[Boston Bread]

Looks like Bokharimania is not happening. I retract my prediction of the Manitoba Libs winning. Hoping they crater and save at least a respectable performance for the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Wow, Winnipeg. I guess outside of the north, the NDP will be wiped out in rural Manitoba.

This is true but outside of the north, the NDP only has a handful of seats in rural Manitoba to begin with...this could mean the PCs will waste a lot of votes sweeping rural Manitoba seats most of which they already hold by huge margins.

BTW: The Manitoba PCs have been stuck at a ceiling of 43% support in every single Manitoba election of the last 50 years - the only exception was when they got 48% in 1977 - and that was in the context of a pure two-way contest where the Liberals vote was practically in single digits.

The NDP holds 4 seats outside the North and Winnipeg (Gimli, Selkirk, Brandon East and Dawson Trail)

- Dawson Trail & Gimli, the NDP MLAs are not running; both ridings were won with over 50% for the NDP.
Gimli and Dawson Trail (this is a new-ish riding, the old one was La Verendrye) were both held by the PCs from 88-99 (Oops, Gimli was held by the Liberals from 88-90). I think Dawson Trail will be the first to fall, I think a large chuck of support was for Lemieux.

- Selkirk and Brandon East the incumbent NDP MLAs are running again;

Selkirk - Greg Dewar (name sound familiar?) been the MLA since 1990, current Finance Minister. I do not see the NDP losing this seat. From 69-88 and from 90- present the NDP have held this riding

Brandon East - The NDP have held this since 69, Caldwell since 99 (he's Minister of Municipal Government, Minister responsible for relations with the City of Winnipeg, and Minister responsible for alternative energy).

I think that as the Campaign starts, the Liberals lack of resources and riding-on-the-coattails-of-Trudeau will start to show and drift; I'd say they drop 5-10% 3-4 seats only at most they can win. The Leader is not strong as was pointed out (i'll save judgement till the campaign starts, she may perform well), plus a star candidate for the NDP running against her means even more resources that could have gone to other ridings in Winnipeg won't.
I'm thinking 2016 will be more like 1995 (PCs 42.87% NDP 32.81%  LIB 23.72%)

[DL]

The NDP also currently holds Dauphin and Interlake - and its debatable if those would be considered "northern"...

[lilTommy]

The NDP also currently holds Dauphin and Interlake - and its debatable if those would be considered "northern"...

I didn't. So I just looked; Wiki (OK grain of salt there) only considers:
Flin Flon, Kewatinook, Swan River, The Pas and Thompson As "Northern"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manitoba_general_election,_2016

BUT, Elections Manitoba has only 4 seats as "Northern" in the Maps section:
Flin Flon, Kewatinook, The Pas and Thompson
http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Resources/North

... its all debatable i guess ; adding Dauphin and Interlake into the South sure does make it look a little better for the NDP, two more seats!

[DC Al Fine]

Something seems off about that poll. People prefer the NDP on the economy but the Tories on healthcare? That seems odd.

[DL]

Something seems off about that poll. People prefer the NDP on the economy but the Tories on healthcare? That seems odd.

No, its a crosstab of party support by what people say is the issue that concerns them the most

[trebor204]

Writs could be dropped tomorrow (Tuesday)

Forum Poll:

(Under a Paywall, No news release on the Forum Research Website yet)

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/pallister-selinger-less-popular-than-their-parties-poll-reveals-372001551.html

Seat Projection:
PC 39
NDP 13
LIB 5

Party           NDP   PC   Lib   Gr   Other
Total           22   46   23   8   1
18-34   26   34   25   13   2
35-44   21   45   25   8   1
45-54   19   51   22   7   1
55-64   20   52   21   6   1
65+           23   47   21   8   1
Male           20   49   21   9   2
Female   23   43   25   8   1
Winnipeg   25   40   26   8   1
Brandon   20   61   10   7   1
Rural           18   52   20   8   1

[DC Al Fine]

Something seems off about that poll. People prefer the NDP on the economy but the Tories on healthcare? That seems odd.

No, its a crosstab of party support by what people say is the issue that concerns them the most

Mea culpa

[RogueBeaver]

Writ campaign starts tomorrow.

[trebor204]

CBC Poll Tracker is out

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/multimedia/poll-tracker-2016-manitoba-provincial-election-1.3464068


PC 42 (37-43) Min 34, Max 48
NDP 9 (6-15) Min 3, Max 18
LIB 6 (5-8), Min 3, Max 12
Green 0 (0-0), Min 0, Max 1

PC have a chance to sweep Rural Manitoba, protected to win 23 out of 26 seats, with a range of 23-26 seats.

[DL]

PC have a chance to sweep Rural Manitoba, protected to win 23 out of 26 seats, with a range of 23-26 seats.

It might seem that way but there are 4 seats in northern manitoba that are heavily First Nation that will never go Conservative...its within the realm of possibility that if the NDP was really crushed those seats could co Liberal - but PC never

[lilTommy]

PC have a chance to sweep Rural Manitoba, protected to win 23 out of 26 seats, with a range of 23-26 seats.

It might seem that way but there are 4 seats in northern manitoba that are heavily First Nation that will never go Conservative...its within the realm of possibility that if the NDP was really crushed those seats could co Liberal - but PC never

Yup, even the worst election for the NDP in recent years, 1988 where the NDP won only 12 seats, they won all the "Northern" seats save Swan River, Oddly enough the PCs held Swan River from 1932-1986.
I wrote above, I'd say there are probably two seats the NDP wont lose that are "Rural/Southern" Selkirk and Brandon East, BE having been held by the NDP since 69 and based on history, the NDP sunk to 23% province wide and still held BE.

When we indicate rural Manitoba, we have to distinguish between the North and South, very very different regions. Just like in Ontario, rural Northern Ontario is not at all like Rural Southern Ontario.

[trebor204]

Mainstreet

(MB, WPG, Rural MB)

PC 44,33,60
NDP 24,32,14
LIB 24,27,21
Green 7,8,5

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/tenuous-tie-continues-winnipeg/

[DC Al Fine]

Bokhari in a three way race in her riding

Liberals to guarantee 10% of seats for aboriginals.

[136or142]

Four prospective Liberal candidates were disqualified from the ballot for failing to properly get 50 signatures.  These are in rural ridings and the people giving the signatures incorrectly gave their post office box and not their home address.

These four ridings without Liberal candidates are Agassiz, Lac du Bonnet, Arthur-Virden and Lakeside.


A fifth Liberal candidate, Joanne Levi was disqualified after the NDP filed a complaint to Elections Manitoba saying she wasn't eligible to run as she had been working as an enumerator until she quit earlier this month to seek the Liberal Party nomination.

She says that the regulations on this are vague and that she assumed it meant that she only couldn't work as an enumerator while seeking the nomination (or, obviously after getting the nomination.)

That may be fair enough, but I'd like to know if she consulted a lawyer or asked for an opinion from Elections Manitoba before taking the enumerators job regarding this matter.

Liberal Party leader Rena Bukhari was reported by CBC to have said that she was disappointed that these candidates couldn't run due to 'technical matters.'  I don't want to stereotype her based on her profession, but her day job is as a lawyer (corporate and commercial law) so she should be familiar with technicalities, so I think this is a rather ridiculous comment from her, if she was quoted accurately by the CBC.

The Manitoba Liberal Party managed to run a full slate of candidates in 2003, 2007 and 2011 despite being nowhere near as high in the polls as they are now.  Rena Bukhari appears to be living up (or living down if you prefer) to the perception of her as being a complete dud as a party leader.  If there is leader's debate, that could be the only chance she has to change this perception. It will be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has on the polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 45/24/23.

[RogueBeaver]

Insight: 49/26/17.

[lilTommy]

Insight: 49/26/17.

The Liberal Support has begun to slip; "should" be good new for the NDP, but its looking like the PCs are getting a boost as well.
http://insightmanitoba.ca/mb-polling-results.html

Winnipeg:
PC - 38%
NDP - 24%
LIB - 16%

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals aren't going to win much if all of their strength is in rural Manitoba where the PCs will win most seats.