Does Abortion lower crime rates in the long-run?

[phk]

Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. The 5 states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime.

The reason abortion has had an impact on the crime rate is the high incidence of abortion among mothers whose children are most likely to be at risk for future crime: teenagers, unmarried women and black women have higher rates of abortion, and their children are statistically at a higher risk for crime in adulthood.

The economic benefit to society of abortion in reducing crime may be up to $30 billion annually.

[angus]

that's a good marxist sort of question, I think.  the answer depends on many factors, though.  Not sure whether any data exists on the subject, to be honest.  I see your extrapolations, but that's like saying:  Oranges don't talk.  This long yellow fruit in my hand doesn't talk, so it must be an orange.  My gut feeling is that criminalizing the procedure would increase crime rates, but it isn't clear that the converse necessarily follows. 

[John Dibble]

Unsure. The crime drop may also be greatly due in part to increased gun ownership and concealed carry laws.

[angus]

or maybe bananas don't talk either...

ever thought of that?


yeah, John Dibble, my point exactly.  nice of you to bring up that particular issue, though.  Died-in-the-wool capital L Libertarian.   

[J.R. Brown]

It's actually a fact that the crime rate dropped after abortion was made illegal, but that doesn't make it right. It's not some made up thing or partisan for that matter. I learned it in my Sociology class last semester and I don't think my professor was a partisan liberal, I thought he was pretty conservative.

[Jake]

Possibly, doesn't make abortion right though

[A18]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

[J.R. Brown]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

You really are a fascist man.

[Gabu]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

Good plan; why don't you get started on that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

I think all of those murders would raise the crime rate.

[A18]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

You really are a fascist man.

Dude, I was pointing out that just because something would make the crime rate drop doesn't mean it's a good thing.

[J.R. Brown]

I imagine killing every black person would make the crime rate drop a lot.

You really are a fascist man.

Dude, I was pointing out that just because something would make the crime rate drop doesn't mean it's a good thing.

That's what I said, but I didn't make such an offensive comment while saying it.

[A18]

Um, okay. I imagine killing all people would also make the crime rate go down.

[J.R. Brown]

I agreed with you, let it go.

[Gabu]

Ooo, ooo, let's brainstorm other groups of people we can kill in order to lower the crime rate!

[nclib]

Possibly, though there are better arguments for abortion rights.

[Nym90]

It depends on the abortion in question.

In some cases, those who are aborted may well have gone on to become criminals, but some would have gone on to become upstanding individuals, police officers, etc. It's impossible to say for sure, obviously.

Unwanted children are certainly more likely to go on to become criminals. That much is true. However, if the child had gone on to be adopted instead, that changes the equation.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It depends on the abortion in question.

In some cases, those who are aborted may well have gone on to become criminals, but some would have gone on to become upstanding individuals, police officers, etc. It's impossible to say for sure, obviously.

Unwanted children are certainly more likely to go on to become criminals. That much is true. However, if the child had gone on to be adopted instead, that changes the equation.

Adopted children still do worse than those with their biological parents. That's on average of course, and doesn't mean that adoption is bad in certain cases.

[PBrunsel]

Best abortion cartoon ever:

[phk]

The reason abortion has had an impact on the crime rate is the high incidence of abortion among mothers whose children are most likely to be at risk for future crime: teenagers, unmarried women and black women have higher rates of abortion, and their children are statistically at a higher risk for crime in adulthood.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Best abortion cartoon ever:

I think quite a lot of them would have turned out poorly. Having a mother whoreally didn't want to have you, but was forced to because of a fascist law,  is a bad thing.

[PBrunsel]

The reason abortion has had an impact on the crime rate is the high incidence of abortion among mothers whose children are most likely to be at risk for future crime: teenagers, unmarried women and black women have higher rates of abortion, and their children are statistically at a higher risk for crime in adulthood.

I'll give you one thing, you've got the facts down pat. For this I say you have made some strong cases.

[A18]

I'd rather eliminate potential 'scholars'

[Beet]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

[??????????]

Best abortion cartoon ever:

I think quite a lot of them would have turned out poorly. Having a mother whoreally didn't want to have you, but was forced to because of a fascist law,  is a bad thing.

Fern,

Though you may be right many many great people have come from so called "broken" homes.