Does Abortion lower crime rates in the long-run?

[Ebowed]

The simple solution to lowering the crime rate is to make absolutely everything legal.  I believe most will agree that this is not an option.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Best abortion cartoon ever:

I think quite a lot of them would have turned out poorly. Having a mother whoreally didn't want to have you, but was forced to because of a fascist law,  is a bad thing.

Fern,

Though you may be right many many great people have come from so called "broken" homes.

Sarcastic response:
Don't worry, we'll still have some broken homes.

[opebo]

Yes, Marxist is right about this one.

On the other hand there are fewer poor people in general, which has all sorts of effects, good and bad.  For example fewer streetwalkers...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. And it's offense and elitist in the extreme to suggest that it does

[David S]

Crime began to fall roughly 18 years after abortion legalization. The 5 states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade. States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime.

The reason abortion has had an impact on the crime rate is the high incidence of abortion among mothers whose children are most likely to be at risk for future crime: teenagers, unmarried women and black women have higher rates of abortion, and their children are statistically at a higher risk for crime in adulthood.

The economic benefit to society of abortion in reducing crime may be up to $30 billion annually.

I'm not doubting you but I would like to know the source of that information.

[Bono]

That people actually think in this terms and believe this provides a justification for abortion(if this is true, anyways), it's just an example of how disgusting utilitarism and, in Schopenhauer's words its constant companion, ignorance, truly is.

[David S]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

[Beet]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

Nope. I'm not ready to develop the measures, not familiar with all the necessary statistics, and don't have enough time. Plus, someone has probably done it, or something similiar, before. That said, it would certainly be interesting, as would other further explorations of the notion of social capital in an international context; and the effect of it on things such as economic growth, crime, education, economic equality, and general social stability. Eventually I would like to do a doctorate on this question.

[Erc]

The economic benefit to society of abortion in reducing crime may be up to $30 billion annually.

And the thousands of those aborted who didn't fall into a life of crime would certainly produce more than $30b annually through their labor.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The economic benefit to society of abortion in reducing crime may be up to $30 billion annually.

And the thousands of those aborted who didn't fall into a life of crime would certainly produce more than $30b annually through their labor.

You have to subtract that from their costs to society, and the costs of overpopulation.

[The Duke]

Crime rates actually began their decline not 8 years after Roe, but 20 years, in 1993.

What else was going in in the early 90s?

Elections of anti-crime mayors in New York and LA
Passage of tough gun control measures
Three Strikes laws and other tough sentencing measures
Construction of more prisons
More effective war on drugs
The beginnings of the longest economic expansion in US history
Welfare Reform
Etc.

This rooster I know crowed one morning, and the sun came up.  THat's a ing hardcore rooster to make that happen.

[David S]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

Nope. I'm not ready to develop the measures, not familiar with all the necessary statistics, and don't have enough time. Plus, someone has probably done it, or something similiar, before. That said, it would certainly be interesting, as would other further explorations of the notion of social capital in an international context; and the effect of it on things such as economic growth, crime, education, economic equality, and general social stability. Eventually I would like to do a doctorate on this question.

Then you have an untested hypothesis, which is basically meaningless.

[??????????]

This rooster I know crowed one morning, and the sun came up.  THat's a g hardcore rooster to make that happen.

When you want a witty comment, always really on John Ford to provide it. Hilarious!!!!

[senatortombstone]

Abortion ultimately kills liberals.  Liberals are far more likely to have abortions than conservatives.  Liberal parents usually brainwash their kids into becoming liberals.  Those children eventually become 18 and vote.  If abortion weren't legal we'd probably have Al Gore as president right now because the number of liberals would be even greater than they currently are.

So yes abortions do reduce crime because ultimately crime is commited by liberals and their offspring.  Conservatives have morals and pass them down unto their offspring.  Crime is not caused by conservatives, but by liberals and their children.

don't get me wrong, I am opposed to aborting innocentbabies, although I do supporting aborting liberals after they've voted for a liberal.

[dazzleman]

Crime rates actually began their decline not 8 years after Roe, but 20 years, in 1993.

What else was going in in the early 90s?

Elections of anti-crime mayors in New York and LA
Passage of tough gun control measures
Three Strikes laws and other tough sentencing measures
Construction of more prisons
More effective war on drugs
The beginnings of the longest economic expansion in US history
Welfare Reform
Etc.

This rooster I know crowed one morning, and the sun came up.  THat's a g hardcore rooster to make that happen.

Good points.  There were other factors besides abortion that came into play in the 1990s to reduce crime.  A tougher approach to crime overall is a major one.

[opebo]

That people actually think in this terms and believe this provides a justification for abortion(if this is true, anyways), it's just an example of how disgusting utilitarism and, in Schopenhauer's words its constant companion, ignorance, truly is.

There is no need for a 'justification' of abortion, as it is a private act taking place within someone's body, and clearly none of your business.  The reduction of crime argument is just a side benefit, as well as a useful way to expose the role inequality, class, and lack of social mobility have in our capitalist society.

[Beet]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

Nope. I'm not ready to develop the measures, not familiar with all the necessary statistics, and don't have enough time. Plus, someone has probably done it, or something similiar, before. That said, it would certainly be interesting, as would other further explorations of the notion of social capital in an international context; and the effect of it on things such as economic growth, crime, education, economic equality, and general social stability. Eventually I would like to do a doctorate on this question.

Then you have an untested hypothesis, which is basically meaningless.

Hello? This is a message board, not an academic journal. I have developed a reasonably comprehensive hypothesis, the most comprehensive so far, which could actually be applied to real data and almost certainly would be confirmed. Also, if you care to offer something better I would be glad to consider.

[David S]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

Nope. I'm not ready to develop the measures, not familiar with all the necessary statistics, and don't have enough time. Plus, someone has probably done it, or something similiar, before. That said, it would certainly be interesting, as would other further explorations of the notion of social capital in an international context; and the effect of it on things such as economic growth, crime, education, economic equality, and general social stability. Eventually I would like to do a doctorate on this question.

Then you have an untested hypothesis, which is basically meaningless.

Hello? This is a message board, not an academic journal. I have developed a reasonably comprehensive hypothesis, the most comprehensive so far, which could actually be applied to real data and almost certainly would be confirmed. Also, if you care to offer something better I would be glad to consider.

You present your formula as if it is the explaination of our crime problems, but you don't have time to determine any of the coefficients nor have you tested it on real data. In other words you have nothing.

[Beet]

This is completely irrelevant. I have already developed a model of crime rates which incorporates the percentage of young males in the population as well as the factors that account for most of the higher crime rate among blacks and others who are more likely to be aborted. Abortion is predominantly relevant insofar as it influences the following.

As noted before:

B0: Intecept crime level, assuming x1-4 are all 0.
x1: Enforcement toughness
x2: Social capital
x3: Economy opportunity
x4: Percent of population of young males
Y: Crime rate

Y = B0 - B1*x1 - B2*x2 - B3*x3 + B4*x4 + alpha

Note that the coefficients are not necessarily linear. The coefficient on economic opportunity for example is a convex function.

Ever tried applying your formula to real data?

Nope. I'm not ready to develop the measures, not familiar with all the necessary statistics, and don't have enough time. Plus, someone has probably done it, or something similiar, before. That said, it would certainly be interesting, as would other further explorations of the notion of social capital in an international context; and the effect of it on things such as economic growth, crime, education, economic equality, and general social stability. Eventually I would like to do a doctorate on this question.

Then you have an untested hypothesis, which is basically meaningless.

Hello? This is a message board, not an academic journal. I have developed a reasonably comprehensive hypothesis, the most comprehensive so far, which could actually be applied to real data and almost certainly would be confirmed. Also, if you care to offer something better I would be glad to consider.

You present your formula as if it is the explaination of our crime problems, but you don't have time to determine any of the coefficients nor have you tested it on real data. In other words you have nothing.

All I said was here is a theoretical model which takes into account the effects of abortion. Why are you so concerned about it anyways? Do you have something substantive to say or are you just harping for some strange reason? Answer me that.

[Hitchabrut]

No. The death penalty does.     

[opebo]

No. The death penalty does.     

No, the death penalty gets them after they do the crime.  Abortion gets them before they do it.  That is the main thrust, I believe, of Marxist's excellent argument.

[Jake]

Not all abortions come from poor people, many come from married couples who were stupid, didn't use protection, and got a "mistake".

[Hitchabrut]

but

No. The death penalty does.     

No, the death penalty gets them after they do the crime. Abortion gets them before they do it. That is the main thrust, I believe, of Marxist's excellent argument.

Ever heard of INTIMIDATION? Don't do this or you'll die? Sometimes liberals have trouble with the simplest concepts.

[opebo]

but

No. The death penalty does.     

No, the death penalty gets them after they do the crime. Abortion gets them before they do it. That is the main thrust, I believe, of Marxist's excellent argument.

Ever heard of INTIMIDATION? Don't do this or you'll die? Sometimes liberals have trouble with the simplest concepts.

No I understand the concept I just don't think it would be necessary if they'd already been aborted.