latest Betfair odds

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Linked Pricing appears to have hit Jeb the hardest among the consensus "contender" group though Christie technically hit equally hard. Trump actually went up as if by magic.

PredictIt goes to linked pricing tomorrow so one last update on the current format before we change over and all prices go down:

Marco Rubio: 40
Ted Cruz: 23 22
Donald Trump: 20 21
Jeb Bush: 12 9
Chris Christie: 8 6

John Kasich: 5 4
Ben Carson: 5 3
Rand Paul: 4 <1, (meaning no sell offers, effectively the same as dropped out candidates)

Paul Ryan: 3
Mitt Romney: 2 1
Mike Huckabee: 2 1
Carly Fiorina: 3 1

So, now the buy market is very close to fair.

Edit: quick movement, Kasich down to 3 to rejoin the joke tier, Bush and Rubio each get a penny back from him going down though.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie keeps inching up, while Carson keeps sinking…

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.5
O’Malley 1.2
Biden 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 40.7
Trump 22.6
Cruz 15.4
Bush 12.8
Christie 5.5
Carson 2.5
Huckabee 1.0
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.8
Kasich 0.7

Four years ago today on Intrade (when Newt-mania caused Romney to drop below 50):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3108100#msg3108100

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1353823#msg1353823

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[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Interesting how our forum is so bearish on Rubio in comparison to the markets and bullish on Cruz. Rubio would make a real interesting short opportunity if I didn't believe he had a non-zero chance. It actually might be worth a bet at this risk/reward. He's almost bound to go down at least marginally at some point during the early state losses.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.5
O’Malley 1.3

Republicans
Rubio 40.7
Trump 21.7
Cruz 15.8
Bush 12.5
Christie 6.4
Carson 2.6
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.9
Huckabee 0.8
Kasich 0.6

Four years ago today on Intrade (just after Cain dropped out):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3109834#msg3109834

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[IceSpear]

I want to meet the people betting on O'Malley.

[Volrath50]

I want to meet the people betting on O'Malley.

They are probably betting on a small chance that Hillary has to drop out due to a health reason or something like that, and her support goes to O'Malley rather than Sanders, which seems plausible.

[IceSpear]

I want to meet the people betting on O'Malley.

They are probably betting on a small chance that Hillary has to drop out due to a health reason or something like that, and her support goes to O'Malley rather than Sanders, which seems plausible.

I guess so, but even in that scenario I'd think Sanders would be heavily favored.

[Eraserhead]

I want to meet the people betting on O'Malley.

They are probably betting on a small chance that Hillary has to drop out due to a health reason or something like that, and her support goes to O'Malley rather than Sanders, which seems plausible.

I guess so, but even in that scenario I'd think Sanders would be heavily favored.

Yeah, in that scenario, Biden almost certainly jumps in and runs a competitive race against Sanders.

If it's just Sanders against O'Malley, then based on name recognition/fundraising/organizational strength/etc. alone, Sanders crushes him. There wouldn't be enough time for a lackluster candidate like O'Malley to close the kind of gap that exists between them on so many important metrics.

[IceSpear]

I want to meet the people betting on O'Malley.

They are probably betting on a small chance that Hillary has to drop out due to a health reason or something like that, and her support goes to O'Malley rather than Sanders, which seems plausible.

I guess so, but even in that scenario I'd think Sanders would be heavily favored.

Yeah, in that scenario, Biden almost certainly jumps in and runs a competitive race against Sanders.

If it's just Sanders against O'Malley, then based on name recognition/fundraising/organizational strength/etc. alone, Sanders crushes him. There wouldn't be enough time for a lackluster candidate like O'Malley to close the kind of gap that exists between them on so many important metrics.

Filing deadlines would be a problem for Biden if the health issue arose into next year though.

[Mr. Morden]

The fat man is on the move…

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.8

Republicans
Rubio 40.0
Trump 21.7
Cruz 15.4
Bush 11.9
Christie 7.8
Carson 2.5
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.9
Fiorina 0.7

[ScottieF]

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

[yankeesfan]

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

The mainstream media has been pumping him up daily for the past month

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

Because Christie is exciting and energizes the whole party and Kasich is a wimp with a low ceiling in even NH? Christie's numbers don't have a 15% ceiling in his best non-home state. Kasich was never the third-string establishment. Even when he got demoted, Christie's odds clearly went up, and it was over for Kasich.

[Maxwell]

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

The mainstream media has been pumping him up daily for the past month

I'll agree with yankeesfan and smilo, but also I'll say Kasich swamped New Hampshire early with ads, and that pumped his name up. But as soon as he started going there, it revealed the actual John Kasich to voters, and they have not liked John Kasich. Christie, on the other hand, is a classic retail politician. And you see that in the recent New Hampshire poll - his favorables are the highest in the field, his moving up rapidly, all while most voters are saying the New Hampshire Union Leader would make them LESS likely to vote for a candidate. All because he's talked to voters in this sort of intimate setting and they like him the more they see him. That's why Kasich's early momentum has fallen apart and Christie is rising.

[Eraserhead]

Christie should actually be higher than Bush imo. I think he will be soon enough.

[mencken]

Christie should actually be higher than Bush imo. I think he will be soon enough.

Only because Bush is absurdly high even now. Christie should have Bush's current share price, Bush should have Carson's.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.8

Republicans
Rubio 40.7
Trump 22.2
Cruz 15.8
Bush 10.7
Christie 7.5
Carson 1.9
Romney 1.4
Huckabee 1.1
Santorum 0.9
Fiorina 0.8

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3114201#msg3114201

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1355469#msg1355469

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s on the upswing.  He moves up past 25 while Rubio drops below 40.

Up: Trump
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.8

Republicans
Rubio 39.4
Trump 25.4
Cruz 16.3
Bush 10.5
Christie 7.0
Carson 1.8
Romney 1.4
Huckabee 1.1
Kasich 0.7
Fiorina 0.7

Winning Individual
Clinton 55.2
Rubio 17.4
Trump 10.5
Cruz 6.8
Bush 5.3
Christie 4.5
Sanders 3.3

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

[mencken]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

I should clarify when I post number they are from PredictIt (leaving BetFair to Morden as he has historical figures), which has been much higher until recently as I explained at the top of this page. 116 is slightly on the high end, but I don't think it's because of Cruz who has been solidly in second in this market for awhile. You can probably knock off those 1%ers to start and it begins to get a bit more realistic. The best you should be able to get is 106 (guaranteed .5% profit by shorting everyone)+a few for the sell side being one cent more expensive depending on the last transaction. Not terribly far off considering all those costs. Everyone might be a penny too high.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz is surging as Trump falls.  Carson has now crashed so much that he’s behind Romney, who has remarkably made it to 6th place.

Up: Cruz
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.5

Republicans
Rubio 40.0
Trump 20.0
Cruz 19.3
Bush 11.4
Christie 7.0
Romney 1.3
Carson 1.1
Huckabee 1.0
Fiorina 0.6
Kasich 0.5

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3117709#msg3117709

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1359199#msg1359199

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lyin' Steve]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

I should clarify when I post number they are from PredictIt (leaving BetFair to Morden as he has historical figures), which has been much higher until recently as I explained at the top of this page. 116 is slightly on the high end, but I don't think it's because of Cruz who has been solidly in second in this market for awhile. You can probably knock off those 1%ers to start and it begins to get a bit more realistic. The best you should be able to get is 106 (guaranteed .5% profit by shorting everyone)+a few for the sell side being one cent more expensive depending on the last transaction. Not terribly far off considering all those costs. Everyone might be a penny too high.

Can you do that in a different thread?  Clutter/confusing.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz passes Trump for second place.  Paul Ryan gets a few bets, presumably on betters imagining the same kind of “brokered convention” type scenario that would lead to Romney.

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.0
O’Malley 1.5

Republicans
Rubio 40.7
Cruz 20.0
Trump 19.3
Bush 11.9
Christie 7.0
Romney 1.1
Carson 0.9
Huckabee 0.8
Ryan 0.7
Fiorina 0.6

Winning Individual
Clinton 56.8
Rubio 18.6
Trump 10.5
Cruz 7.2
Bush 6.0

[The Other Castro]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.