latest Betfair odds

[The Other Castro]

If I were a betting man I would put my money on Rubio and Biden as the nominees. Would take the long shot with Biden.

You wouldn't be a betting man for very long then.

[The Other Castro]

I wonder what would Biden's share price look like if he announced today that he was running.

It would probably go down after a few days, but the initial jump could be up to the 30s range.

[The Other Castro]

Congrats Smilo on your Trump shares.

[The Other Castro]

How in the world can Betfair still be favoring Bush

It's not just Betfair.  Every major bookie still prices Bush as the favorite to win the nomination.

PredictIt seems to be getting closer to having Rubio in first.

[The Other Castro]

Trump appears to be passing Bush for 2nd place on PredictIt.

[The Other Castro]

Interestingly, Rubio's general election chances assuming he's the nominee is only slightly above Trump's chances, with Rubio having a 44.5% chance and Trump having a 43.14% chance.

[The Other Castro]

I would buy the hell out of Cruz

I got about 500 Cruz at 12 cents, really lucked out on that one.

[The Other Castro]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.

[The Other Castro]

Funny how Betfair still has Rubio with a better chance of winning than Trump and Cruz combined.

It betting on who eventually gets the nomination, not who gets the most media or atlas hype

Atlas hype is probably a better predictor than most punditry or common wisdom on average.

[The Other Castro]

Not Betfair, but PredictIt now has the big three all in the 30s range.

Rubio - 36%
Cruz - 32%
Trump - 31%

[The Other Castro]

IT'S HAPPENINGGGG

PredictIt:

Trump - 33%
Cruz - 31%
Rubio - 29%
Christie - 9%
Bush - 9%

[The Other Castro]

Trump rising I understand, but I don't get why Rubio is going back up and Cruz is falling.

[The Other Castro]

On PredictIt, Sanders has surged while Clinton has fallen over the past few days.
01/09/16: Clinton 78%, Sanders 21%
01/13/16: Clinton 65-67%, Sanders 33-37%

[The Other Castro]

It's funny how Clinton/Sanders almost perfectly match up with Trump/Cruz in terms of Iowa odds, while Clinton and Cruz would do best with lower turnout while Trump and Sanders would do best with higher turnout.

[The Other Castro]

If it goes the way I think it will, Kasich should surge past 5 or 6 while Rubio crashes to possibly under 35 and Trump should rise back to mid/high 30s. Sanders should go up a few points as well.

[The Other Castro]

Wtf?! The Trumpster has 77% chance? I'd give him 51% now, with 49% for Marco.

He's going to get demolished on Super Tuesday, and is down 20 points in his home state.  How on earth did you arrive at 49%?

Maybe wishful thinking; I have to admit, although I don't support Marco at all. If Rubio performs well on Super Tuesday, it may come down a head-to-head race. The Trumpster may lose this, since he's a poor debater and has so much opposition within the Republican Party.

Fall of 2015 called, they want their misconceptions about Donald Trump back.

[The Other Castro]

Here's the PredictIt Odds for the 3/15 states, with Buy/Sell numbers averaged out:

Florida Dems
Clinton 89.5
Sanders 11.5

Florida GOP
Trump 85.5
Rubio 14.5

Illinois Dems
Clinton 75.5
Sanders 26.0

Illinois GOP
Trump 82.5
Cruz 13.5
Kasich 6.5

Missouri Dems
Sanders 50.5
Clinton 49.5

Missouri GOP
Trump 55.5
Cruz 44.5

North Carolina Dems
Clinton 90.5
Sanders 10.0

North Carolina GOP
Trump 85.0
Cruz 15.5

Ohio Dems
Clinton 58.5
Sanders 41.5

Ohio GOP
Kasich 61.0
Trump 42.0

[The Other Castro]

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

[The Other Castro]

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?

Putting aside his recent comments or theories about him peaking, looking at concrete data and numbers alone in Wisconsin is worrying for his nomination prospects. Wisconsin is one of several states that Trump isn't necessarily favored in but that he needs to do somewhat well in. At the moment, it looks like he could get fewer than 10 delegates out of the state. That does not bode well going forward.

[The Other Castro]

Nine days ago, Ryan's price was only 2.4, so anyone who put money on him then made a good deal of $.  How high will he go?

If Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, Ryan should start getting close to 10.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders odds went up about 26% in just a week. If he continues to rise he could get the nomination. He is far behind but with a little more good news he could catch up with two months to go. We are at the half way point tomorrow. So there is a lot more reason to hope than most people realize. The fuzzy math showing his odds so low should not be trusted.

He is now about even with Clinton in national polls.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

[The Other Castro]

55-60% seems high for Trump right now, unless they know something we don't about his chances of winning over 50-100 unpledged delegates.

It may have to do with that one RNC officer saying Trump can probably win if he has more than 1100 delegates (which the RNC as a whole quickly tried to shut down).