latest Betfair odds

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Seems to be a lot of money to be made just by shorting Bush and Rubio for the near future. It looks increasingly unlikely Rubio will run while Bush is just way overvalued even if there is a solid chance he wins the nomination. Once other moderates jump in, that should drop to low 20s. Huck and Carson seem dreadfully undervalued otoh - not that I expect either to be the nominee. Could be about 9 and 4 respectively while Carson's value could increase dramatically if he continues to poll fantastically in Iowa in August/September.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Has anyone used PredictIt? It seems to do the same thing, but it is aimed at Americans. I don't know why that is legal if Betfair and especially InTrade were not. Could it just be a scam or too low volume due to being new?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

short Rubio, IMO

I've been doubting him all along, and I still don't think he will win the nomination, but he has the potential to really become a favorite and rise to the top quickly. He might be slightly overpriced (especially because of polling numbers, but it doesn't justify a short because he could erupt and that's what people are paying for. I'm not really a fan, but it's enough to make me nervous.

The only one I am short is Bush because he is actually overpriced considering his room to grow isn't that big, he doesn't have an advantage in the early states, and he seems prone to a collapse for many reasons which I have specified outside this thread several times. There is no way he is more likely to win than the virtually inevitable Romney was (in absence of a dark horse Christie or perhaps Daniels. Perry was a joke) - that was obvious to me at the time as much as I hated him. The only advantage he may have is in fundraising, but it doesn't outweigh some serious negatives.

Christie at 3.2 is an outstanding buy even though I have my doubts about him actually becoming the nominee. There could be real value in that even if he has a single good poll performance. The negatives should decline. He's just at a real low right now.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think they seem to be normalizing. I know I would've been short Rubio awhile ago, but he looks a bit low at the moment, but still not nearly as much as Jeb Bush looks high. Fiorina a bit high and Paul quite a bit too low, but otherwise it's beginning to look much better. Bush should've never been near 40 and should slowly dwindle towards 20.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Congrats Smilo on your Trump shares.

Haha, thanks - wish I bought at those basement prices, but either way, I'll be very happy when they cash out at $1 each.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Would you rather risk it and make 32% on Clinton which may still yet go through a serious challenge and a bit of uncertainty (Biden? E-mails as Torie adds) or make a comparatively safer bet that the GOP nominee is not Jeb and make 41%. Risk-reward is seriously off. Rubio, Trump, Carson, Cruz and Christie are the only candidates with a real chance at the moment. Others are under 3% probability imo. Bush/Fiorina will struggle mightily in the early states. Kasich will get demolished in the south even if he got NH. Huckabee/Jindal would most likely be denied by the rest of the country even if they got an Iowa/SC/SEC Primary bounce. Bush is the easiest and most rewarding short of all those.

Disclosure: I have over 300 shares and my potential profit still stands at 61% thanks to getting in early on most of them (and profit on the next share would actually be 47% on PredictIt). I will keep buying whenever I can because his chances look bleaker every day. Someone advise me on what risks I face because I don't see many. Trump and Carson voters are not going to him, and he's not beating anybody head-to-head. A Trump-Carson-Bush split maybe? With the selfish establishment opponents, that's a risk I'm willing to face because it ain't happening.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If you assume winning_individual/chance_of_nomination is the chance they would have in the GE given that they win the nomination, Trump looks like the most electable Pub according to the bettors, haha! Both Rubio and Jeb underwater, but Trump more likely than not to win. Biden of course is all but a lock. A thing of beauty. Not even Carson up 20 in swingstates has a real chance of winning if he gets the nomination.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Not Betfair, but on PredictIt, Bush is down 7 cents and Christie is up 8 cents. I'll let Morden give the other side of this

Average of Buy/Sell Yes Shares
Rubio 46
Cruz 21.5
Trump 21 (22 on the buy-side which was the last transaction
Bush 23 (21 on the sell-side, which was the last transaction. Very wide spread)
Christie 14.5
Kasich 14.5
Carson 14.5 (13 on the sell-side which was last transaction)
Paul 7.5
Jindal 6
Santorum 5 (weird last transaction)
Huckabee 4.5 (last transaction at 6)
Fiorina 8 (last transaction at 5 on sell-side; down 8 cents)
Graham 4
Pataki 2.5

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Christie=McCain not Bush. He got burnt off far too late. Chris has got this.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've spent so much energy complaining about why Jeb Bush's value should be 0, but at least there is a reasonable case for him. Sanders is frankly absurd as his only chance is if Clinton dies. The risk-reward to that 12.5% after-fee profit on PredictIt is just more easy money. His supporters are delusional.

RE: the above post...Trump's implied odds on PredictIt are even higher...77%! but you can't take those at face value as much because of the inflated prices. Still over 50 is mighty impressive.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PredictIt goes to linked pricing tomorrow so one last update on the current format before we change over and all prices go down:

Marco Rubio: 40
Ted Cruz: 23
Donald Trump: 20
Jeb Bush: 12
Chris Christie: 8

John Kasich: 5
Ben Carson: 5
Rand Paul: 4

Paul Ryan: 3
Carly Fiorina: 3
Mitt Romney: 2
Mike Huckabee: 2

Kasich still too high! Carson and Paul definitely have better chances than him.

Just holding my Bush shares in this market though I might unload those soon. The 4 contenders should pick up his value.

That only adds up to 127 (excluding the penny guys) so I don't know if it will drop too much more considering it was way over 200 at one point.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Linked Pricing appears to have hit Jeb the hardest among the consensus "contender" group though Christie technically hit equally hard. Trump actually went up as if by magic.

PredictIt goes to linked pricing tomorrow so one last update on the current format before we change over and all prices go down:

Marco Rubio: 40
Ted Cruz: 23 22
Donald Trump: 20 21
Jeb Bush: 12 9
Chris Christie: 8 6

John Kasich: 5 4
Ben Carson: 5 3
Rand Paul: 4 <1, (meaning no sell offers, effectively the same as dropped out candidates)

Paul Ryan: 3
Mitt Romney: 2 1
Mike Huckabee: 2 1
Carly Fiorina: 3 1

So, now the buy market is very close to fair.

Edit: quick movement, Kasich down to 3 to rejoin the joke tier, Bush and Rubio each get a penny back from him going down though.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Interesting how our forum is so bearish on Rubio in comparison to the markets and bullish on Cruz. Rubio would make a real interesting short opportunity if I didn't believe he had a non-zero chance. It actually might be worth a bet at this risk/reward. He's almost bound to go down at least marginally at some point during the early state losses.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How the hell is Christie approaching 8% (!) and Kasich isn't even in play? Don't really understand how/why Christie overtook him as the establishment third-string.

Because Christie is exciting and energizes the whole party and Kasich is a wimp with a low ceiling in even NH? Christie's numbers don't have a 15% ceiling in his best non-home state. Kasich was never the third-string establishment. Even when he got demoted, Christie's odds clearly went up, and it was over for Kasich.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

I should clarify when I post number they are from PredictIt (leaving BetFair to Morden as he has historical figures), which has been much higher until recently as I explained at the top of this page. 116 is slightly on the high end, but I don't think it's because of Cruz who has been solidly in second in this market for awhile. You can probably knock off those 1%ers to start and it begins to get a bit more realistic. The best you should be able to get is 106 (guaranteed .5% profit by shorting everyone)+a few for the sell side being one cent more expensive depending on the last transaction. Not terribly far off considering all those costs. Everyone might be a penny too high.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wow, Sanders was briefly up to 23 on PredictIt. What a bunch of lunatic True Believers. At least they are becoming more sane regarding the GOP race.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump takes a commanding lead on PredictIt

Trump 40
Rubio 31
Cruz 26
Bush 12
Christie 5
Kasich 3

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Rubio crashes down to 3rd on PredictIt!

TRUMP 44 (+4!)
Canadian 24
Homosexual 23 (-5!)
Low-Energy 8
Christie 4
Paul 3
Kasich 2 (-1)
Carson 1

Sandernistas are still not buying that NBC poll though LOL
Clinton 70
Bernie 33
Biden 5 (LOL!)

GE: TRUMP now in 2nd!
Hillary 44
TRUMP 25
Bernie 24
Rubio 12
Cruz 11

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PredictIt now has Trump as nearly an outright favorite:

Trump 48 (+5)
Rubio 24
Cruz 19
Jeb 9
Kasich 6
Christie 3

IOWA
Trump 52 (+7)
Cruz 48 (-4)

New Hampshire
Trump 77 (+8)
Kasich 11 (-3)
Cruz 7
Bush 4

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't mean to update two days in a row, but we've had major movement. It's all but over, folks.

Nomination: Last Transaction Price
Trump 59
Rubio 23
Cruz 13
Bush 9
Kasich 6
Christie 3

IOWA: Ask Price
Trump 60
Cruz: 46 (The Bid is 41 though and has been dropping steadily, last transaction at 41)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lavenous 44
TRUMP 37
Cubano de Canada 18
Low Energy 9
Lehman Bros 6
High Energy 3
Paul Ryan 2

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

All eyes are on the second place in NH market at this point, so I'll post those odds:

Rubio 39 (-11)
Kasich 36 (+9)
Cruz 14 (+5)
Bush 11 (+3)
Trump 10 (-2)
Christie 3 (-2)

Those deltas are since midnight I believe so that's why you see Christie down in spite of the debate performance. Got overbought immediately.

I don't know how anyone could be in this market with any degree of certainty. We'll see if Kasich takes it over tomorrow after the three polls showing him in that slot today.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Cruz is more likely than Sanders. Geez, so short sighted.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Super Tuesday PredictIt Ask Prices --

Nevada: Trump 88, Rubio 14, Cruz 4

Alabama: Trump 84, Cruz 16, Rubio 12
Massachusetts: Trump 79, Rubio 25, Kasich 6
Vermont: Trump 78, Rubio 23, Kasich 10
Tennessee: Trump 78, Rubio 18, Cruz 10
Georgia: Trump 74, Rubio 29, Cruz 10
Arkansas: Trump 70, Cruz 24, Rubio 18 (Bid: 13)
Alaska: Trump 69, Rubio 22, Cruz 15
Oklahoma: Trump 65, Cruz 24 (Bid: 23), Rubio 24 (Bid: 16)
Virginia: Trump 63, Rubio 43, Cruz 8
Minnesota: Trump 51, Rubio 42, Cruz 15
Texas: Cruz 77, Trump 32, Rubio 6

Spreads should decrease a bit once SC is paid out.

Shorting Trump in Minnesota seems like a great bet.