Ukraine Crisis

[RogueBeaver]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.

[Frodo]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.

Then it's no wonder Putin is being so bold -for all of President Obama's rhetorical toughness, it is clear Putin won't suffer any real consequences for his aggression. 

[ag]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

[RogueBeaver]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

Plus natural gas, but that would mean a different US energy policy.

[ag]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

Plus natural gas, but that would mean a different US energy policy.

And, of course, even that is too big a price to pay for saving the world.

[RogueBeaver]

Re UK econ sanctions: Cameron doesn't want to drain the City of Russian money.

[ag]

Re UK econ sanctions: Cameron doesn't want to drain the City of Russian money.

Then just arrest it

alas...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un

The United States didn't fight Hitler in the Pacific either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So this Yanukovych dead thing isn't just a crazy rumor being tossed around and more like a unsubstantiated rumor being given attention by some serious outlets? Because that's just bizarre especially that such a thing would be tried by the Russians being so blatant (has he had any prior health problems?)

In all fairness though it's not too clear what Putin and the Russians would gain by having him dead. He seems like the type who it'd be best to just shuffle away to some villa on the Black Sea for a quiet low key retirement and becoming a non-issue.

[ag]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Hitler never invaded the US, btw. Poland and Czecoslovakia did not get their German minorities by accdent either.

Unlike you I merely understand what is Putin. I know the type. It IS scary.

Un

The United States didn't fight Hitler in the Pacific either.

Yep, it fought him in France and in Germany.

[ag]

So this Yanukovych dead thing isn't just a crazy rumor being tossed around and more like a unsubstantiated rumor being given attention by some serious outlets? Because that's just bizarre especially that such a thing would be tried by the Russians being so blatant (has he had any prior health problems?)

In all fairness though it's not too clear what Putin and the Russians would gain by having him dead. He seems like the type who it'd be best to just shuffle away to some villa on the Black Sea for a quiet low key retirement and becoming a non-issue.

It seems he was not willing to issue a call to arms. That press conference in Rostov was bizarre: he was talking too much nonsense even by his own standards (hell, having been a president of Ukraine for so many years, he literally confused Russia and Ukraine, said something like "Ukraine has been our key partner").  Still, he explicitly said he does NOT want Russian troops there.

Nobody sees him afterwards. The next day there is a written statement saying he wants Russian troops in Crimea. Then today there is another one, saying he wants a Russian invasion. And then he seems to be dead.

You know the old story about the mummy they found in Egypt? They could not figure out, to whom it belonged, so they invited Russian specialists. These ordered everybody to get out of the room, so they could stay alone with the mummy. For a while there were yells and screams, then the Russians get out, wiping the sweat of their brows, and say: "It is Amehnotep XXVI". "How did you figure it out?" " The son of a bitch fessed up".

[ag]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.


As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

[ag]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.

You did not. But your government did, and your Congress ratified.

In any case, if you do not want to be held accountable, then do not be surprised if within the next 10 years pretty much everybody has a nuke of their own (states and non-state groups included). In the case of Ukraine, they should be able to produce one within a couple of years (they have power stations, from which they can extract plutonium, and have more than enough scientists and engineers who know how to do it).  They, of course, would not use it against the US (they would much prefer to explode it on the Red Square). But there will be a few dozen groups that will.

[ag]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.


As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.


As an aside, since you seem convinced that this is 1938 redux, what countries do you suggest are next on the chopping block? Obviously Czechoslovakia and Poland were just the beginning for Godwin's dictator, and you can't argue that the Low Countries, Norway, Denmark, France, North Africa, and Russia had all been part of the German Empire prior to its dissolution.

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.

[SPC]

Seek a mental health professional.

I, actually, live in Mexico. When sh**t hits the fan we will, as usual, send a crappy squadron of poor folk to the Pacific to express our support, and be done with it. It is the rest of you who will need help.

Reclaiming a territory that had been part of Russia for over two centuries is a slippery slope to invading the United States?

Actually only 1784-1954.

And the United States is supposed to take action to defend the capricious border changes set by Nikolai Khrushchev?

You swore in a treaty to do this - in exchange for taking Ukrainian nukes. Do not want to do it? Give back the nukes.

I didn't sign anything, and any such agreement requiring American taxpayers to defend a nation that does not serve their national defense isn't worth the paper it was written on. Do not hold me accountable for the Ukrainian leadership at the time being foolish enough to rely on the West for their defense when they had an adequate deterrent.

You did not. But your government did, and your Congress ratified.

In any case, if you do not want to be held accountable, then do not be surprised if within the next 10 years pretty much everybody has a nuke of their own (states and non-state groups included). In the case of Ukraine, they should be able to produce one within a couple of years (they have power stations, from which they can extract plutonium, and have more than enough scientists and engineers who know how to do it).  They, of course, would not use it against the US (they would much prefer to explode it on the Red Square). But there will be a few dozen groups that will.

Any third-world dictator who hasn't gotten that memo after our attacks on Libya and Iraq (which gave up their weapons programs) and capitulation to North Korea's demands is either not smart enough to get the message again or lacks the means to do so.

And besides, I would think that the United States' support for toppling the Syrian government would be a much greater risk for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among groups without an instinct for self-preservation than any nonintervention in Eastern Europe.

[MalaspinaGold]

Russian media outlet with unconfirmed report of what ag said earlier: Yanukovych dead of a heart attack in Rostov. TIME's Shuster reports Ukrainians are telling him Russian APCs are SAM-equipped.

Rogue: could you link us to the Russian article about Yanukovych's death?

[King]

The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

An "independent" state of Crimea would be such a puppet joke, it shouldn't be considered.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

I have to partially agree with ag: if Russia takes only the Crimea then you will have a near perminantly pro-western rump Ukraine. The only logical explaination for what we must assume is a logical power is to attempt to completely dominate Ukraine.
The question is if we should intervene in it. While every sensible person wants to uphold Budapest and economically sancion Russia, I am personally not willing to risk World War III for a faraway backwater like the Ukraine. This may be one of those times where the good guys have to take a dive to avoid worse consequences.

[Franknburger]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has put trade and investment talks with Russia on hold as a rebuke for Russia's incursion into Ukraine, a United States official said on Monday.

"We have suspended upcoming bilateral trade and investment engagement with the government of Russia that were part of a move toward deeper commercial and trade ties," a spokesman for the Office of the US Trade Representative said.

Very effective. If we don't dare to use the stick, let's throw away the carrot as well...

As for the Russian dictator.... If you think he stops at Ukraine, I have 75 Brooklyn bridges in the Bronx to sell you.

Again, you put out this vague warning but do not point out any plausible places that would be next on Russia's list.

How about protecting innocent orthodox Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh from continuing Azeri aggression? Ties well into alleged Russian support to Lezgian separatism (a Caucasian ethnic living close to the Russian border), and would of course be completely unrelated to oil and gas exploration in the Caspian Sea... 

[Zanas]

Armenians are not orthodox, they have their own apostolic Church, and things have been relatively quiet in Nagorno-Karabagh recently actually (I've stayed there a few years ago), but I see your point. Plenty of other examples can be thought of.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia Today anchor Abby Martin condemns Russian invasion of Crimea - on air:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs

Someone is about to lose her job, I guess.