Ukraine Crisis

[RogueBeaver]

Independence Square in Kyiv is occupied by protestors, and government buildings are being blockaded. Yanukovych is caught between 2 rocks. Can't sign the Customs Union when this has become a nationalist issue, can't reverse course without pissing off Putin. Some cracks are appearing in his party: the parliamentary speaker wants a government-opposition roundtable and sees no need for a state of emergency. Either Klitschko or Tymoshenko would trounce him in 2015 per the latest polls, so there's not much to look forward to either.

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-12-01/violent-clashes-huge-protest-in-kiev-ukraine-viktor-yanukovich-vitaly-klitschko/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25088613

[RogueBeaver]

There might be a non-confidence motion later today, but Yanukovych's POR holds a parliamentary majority and at any rate there's no way to enforce a government resignation without Yanukovych's cooperation IIRC, unless the rules changed since 2004.

[Cory]

It's good to see the Ukrainian people standing up to Russian intimidation. Russia has always since 1991 tried to uphold the premise that all the former Soviet SSR's are inherently Russia's sphere of influence (sans the Baltic states, of course) and it's good to see Georgia and now the Ukrainians standing up to them.

The thing is in Eastern Ukraine there is a Russian preponderance with road signs in Russian, ect. so it's not going to be as clear cut.

I have always held that in the medium-term Russia is America's number one geo-political foe ( know, I know, I hate to sound like John Bolton) and think we should try to expand NATO membership to Georgia and work harder to undermine the regime in Belarus. I was quite disappointed when Democrats attacked Romney in 2012 for saying as much to be honest.

[RogueBeaver]

Non-confidence failed. Had 186, needed 226 which won't happen without major POR defections.

[windjammer]

Non-confidence failed. Had 186, needed 226 which won't happen without major POR defections.

[ingemann]

If anyone want to know what soft power means, this is a very good example. Soft power is when you can make demand of a country, and the country's own citizens demostrate in favour of the foreign power making the demands.

[Cory]

I appears things are escalating with state security services (?) storming the oppositions main offices.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/12/9/armed-men-storm-ukraineoppositionoffices.html

AL JAZEERA: Masked men with guns raided the Kiev party headquarters of Ukraine's jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and took a computer server on Monday, spokeswoman Natalia Lysova said.

Lysova blamed police for the raid, but the police denied any involvement. Online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda said the raid was the work of the SBU state security service, which was unavailable for comment.

The raid occurred amid heightened tension in the Ukrainian capital after hundreds of thousands of people attended a protest rally on Sunday, which continued Monday, demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovich, Tymoshenko's arch rival.

The protesters, gathered on Kiev's Independence Square, are furious with the Yanukovich government for its decision to ditch a landmark pact with the European Union in favor of a trade deal with Moscow, Ukraine's Soviet-era overlord. Scores of riot police were dispatched to the area on Monday, stoking fears of a crackdown.

Yanukovich subsequently agreed Monday to meet with the country's three former presidents to discuss how to end the political crisis. The president said the round table would take place Tuesday.

Tymoshenko, whose fiery rhetoric galvanized protesters in the Orange Revolution of 2004-05 that denied Yanukovich the presidency then, is serving a seven-year sentence for abuse of office in a case condemned by many in the West as politically motivated.

Ukraine's opposition leaders have called on pro-Europe demonstrators to pressure Yanukovich to sack his government and drop plans for closer ties with Russia.

The latest protests have escalated a weeks-long confrontation between authorities and protesters that has raised fears of political and economic instability in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic home to 46 million people.

----------------

[RogueBeaver]

They've also ransacked media outlets and stole one of their servers. Ashton will be flying into Kiev tomorrow, while Biden, Bildt and the US Embassy have all personally warned Yanukovych not to use force. Yanukovych has agreed to a proposal from the ex-presidents for roundtable talks. Merkel and the EPP are backing Klitschko, who will meet Flanby and Fabius in Paris tomorrow. Remember: Yanukovych wanted to use force in 2004 but was overruled by Kuchma.

[GMantis]

It's good to see the Ukrainian people standing up to Russian intimidation. Russia has always since 1991 tried to uphold the premise that all the former Soviet SSR's are inherently Russia's sphere of influence (sans the Baltic states, of course)

Or maybe Russia is upholding the premise that a country can't join a free trade area with one trade block and expect to receive preferential treatment from a rival trade block. In fact, that pretty much what Barroso said earlier this year, though he meant it the other way around. And while an association with the far richer EU would be beneficial to the Ukraine, would it offset damages from worsened trade relations with Russia. Add the kind of conditions that Ukraine would probably have to accept from the IMF for a loan and the choice doesn't seem nearly as clearcut.

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In a country as polarized as Ukraine, statements such as these are about as meaningful as "America stood behind Bush in 2004", ie not at all. As for Georgia, "standing up" against Russia resulted in hundreds of casualties and tens of thousands of people permanently expelled, so perhaps such actions, however brave they may seem viewed from 10 thousand km away, shouldn't be emulated so rashly.

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Yes, if by preponderance you mean that over 80% of the population prefer to use Russian in daily life. But I don't think they are road signs in Russian, at least until recently. Until Yanukovich came to power, the Ukrainian had pursued a persistent Ukrainization policy and had made Ukrainian the only state language - including in the most strongly Russophone provinces of Ukraine (granted, the Crimea was practically an exception). This was changed by a law passed in 2012 which permitted provinces to use an additional language (not only Russian, incidentally) if it was widely spoken on their territory.

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And when Georgia demands that NATO fulfills their treaty obligations and remove the Russian occupying troops (in Georgia's view) from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what will happen then?
Also, Lukashenko being removed doesn't mean that Belarus will suddenly become a pro-Western country. Belarus is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, has little cultural differences with Russia and their national consciousness is fairly weak. So it's quite possible that Belarus might become even closer to Russia if Lukashenko is removed.
And Romney was right in the sense that if you want a country to be your foe, it will eventually become so. Why the US would want this to happen with Russia is another matter.

[RogueBeaver]

Police are clearing Maidan out as we speak.

[Beezer]

Well, the sh**t has really hit the fan...











At least 5 dead as we speak.

[Beezer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pkzi6-zz55M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EH4KRGzhhQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI7IIUsoEFQ

[NewYorkExpress]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

[RogueBeaver]

Tomorrow Maidan will attack. There are also 5 tanks and some APCs inbound from Kharkov. State of emergency will also be imposed, tonight they'll cut electricity. Been interfering with electronic comms all day. Oh, and 5 people have been killed with over 300 injured today alone.

[Famous Mortimer]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

What do you mean?

Russia did not intervene in Georgia when the pro-Russian president was overthrown in a revolution.

They only intervened when the Georgian military acted aggressively towards people who had not been under Georgian authority for more than a decade and didn't wish to be.

[NewYorkExpress]

Putin's gotten even more brazen since then....

[Famous Mortimer]

Additionally, Putin has hedged his bets here.

Remember that Tymoshenko is in jail for giving Russia a sweetheart deal on gas.

Yanyukovych's hard turn back to Moscow is him trying to show his loyalty in the face of Russia's indifference.

[Cory]

They only intervened when the Georgian military acted aggressively towards people who had not been under Georgian authority for more than a decade and didn't wish to be.

I'm sure that was Putin's main concern....

[Pingvin]

Right now it's not pro-EU, but pretty much anti-Yanukovych now.
May God give Ukrainians enough power to resist.

[Famous Mortimer]

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, acting leader of the Tymoshenko Bloc, has been offered the position of Prime Minister.

Vitali Klitschko has been offered Deputy PM.

Really though, it should be the other way around, based on who's been leading the protests.

This is obviously Yanukovych trying to ferment a power struggle within the opposition. Smart move on his part.

I wonder if they will take the bait though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Prior to that offer, my prediction was thus:

Klitschko would get elected in the next election, whenever that ends up being.

Tymoshenko would be the main candidate against him when he runs for re-election, and she would have Russian backing.

I was fairly confident of that prediction too.

Everything will become very confused if Yatsenyuk becomes PM though.

[RogueBeaver]

They didn't take the obvious bait, said protests will continue till the laws are repealed, parliamentary republicanism is restored, Tymoshenko's released and an early presidential election is held. The oligarchs are meeting tonight. They're probably the key here.

[Silent Hunter]

Given what happened in Georgia, I'm surprised Russian troops haven't marched into Kiev yet...

At the end of the day, provided they're still buying the gas, Moscow could care less.

[Cory]

Or maybe Russia is upholding the premise that a country can't join a free trade area with one trade block and expect to receive preferential treatment from a rival trade block. In fact, that pretty much what Barroso said earlier this year, though he meant it the other way around. And while an association with the far richer EU would be beneficial to the Ukraine, would it offset damages from worsened trade relations with Russia. Add the kind of conditions that Ukraine would probably have to accept from the IMF for a loan and the choice doesn't seem nearly as clearcut.

The long-term political situation makes alignment with the EU much better for Ukraine IMHO. Better to become part of the integrating European Community then a vassal of anachronistic and authoritarian Russia.

In a country as polarized as Ukraine, statements such as these are about as meaningful as "America stood behind Bush in 2004", ie not at all.

You know what I mean, stop hairsplitting.

As for Georgia, "standing up" against Russia resulted in hundreds of casualties and tens of thousands of people permanently expelled, so perhaps such actions, however brave they may seem viewed from 10 thousand km away, shouldn't be emulated so rashly.

Well I guess if the Russians are going to use force then everyone should just give them what they want. Not. Also it's highly unlikely Russia would invade Ukraine because doing so would almost certainly lead to open war with the EU nations.

And when Georgia demands that NATO fulfills their treaty obligations and remove the Russian occupying troops (in Georgia's view) from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what will happen then?

They won't, that's just silly. The obligation to use force would only apply if Russia renewed offensive action. Technically speaking we would be obligated to retake South Ossetia but in real life it's a more complicated situation. The idea is that it would be a defensive alliance. The United States would be the senior partner and the Georgians would know better then to make ridiculous requests.

Also, Lukashenko being removed doesn't mean that Belarus will suddenly become a pro-Western country. Belarus is overwhelmingly Russian speaking, has little cultural differences with Russia and their national consciousness is fairly weak. So it's quite possible that Belarus might become even closer to Russia if Lukashenko is removed.

Good point. Perhaps Belarus is a good buffer state.

And Romney was right in the sense that if you want a country to be your foe, it will eventually become so. Why the US would want this to happen with Russia is another matter.

It's not a matter of "want". It's a matter of competing geo-political interests.

[Famous Mortimer]

Countries don't have to compete for the sake of competing.