Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[Smid]

@ LilTommy
We're doing well in Clayton Park (the middle class part) and we're definitely stealing votes from the Liberals. In Fairview (NDP haven) there's a lot of anger at the NDP, but very few people are committing to the Liberals or PC's. I suspect the election will be decided by those pissed off Dippers and whether they decide to hold their nose and vote NDP or to stay home/vote for another party.

I think this will be the case in many riding's, even those that are strong/safe NDP. I think that's why the NDP has been so aggressive with the announcements, social media campaign (which is making headlines on it's own) and attacks. They are trying to motivate the "base" to get out and vote and keep some voters they won in 2009.
It will come down to who can get their voters out... are people that motivated about changing gov't? or are they motivated to keep this party/stop another party.

You can probably add Alberta to your list of government campaign period polling clawbacks.

Oh forgot to say, i feel it's a good sign that people are not "committing to either the PCs or Liberals". when in doubt many will side with the gov't or not vote. As an outsider, their doesn't seem to be anything that is brewing (ie like here in Ontario the Gas plants scandal) that would bring down the NDP.
I believe (correct me if not) that in MAN, BC & ON the opposition were in the lead at the start/lead up to the election, but in each case the gov't won.

[You kip if you want to...]

@ LilTommy
We're doing well in Clayton Park (the middle class part) and we're definitely stealing votes from the Liberals. In Fairview (NDP haven) there's a lot of anger at the NDP, but very few people are committing to the Liberals or PC's. I suspect the election will be decided by those pissed off Dippers and whether they decide to hold their nose and vote NDP or to stay home/vote for another party.

I think this will be the case in many riding's, even those that are strong/safe NDP. I think that's why the NDP has been so aggressive with the announcements, social media campaign (which is making headlines on it's own) and attacks. They are trying to motivate the "base" to get out and vote and keep some voters they won in 2009.
It will come down to who can get their voters out... are people that motivated about changing gov't? or are they motivated to keep this party/stop another party.

You can probably add Alberta to your list of government campaign period polling clawbacks.

Oh forgot to say, i feel it's a good sign that people are not "committing to either the PCs or Liberals". when in doubt many will side with the gov't or not vote. As an outsider, their doesn't seem to be anything that is brewing (ie like here in Ontario the Gas plants scandal) that would bring down the NDP.
I believe (correct me if not) that in MAN, BC & ON the opposition were in the lead at the start/lead up to the election, but in each case the gov't won.

And the Quebec Liberals came within a whisker.

[DC Al Fine]

And remember, the NDP may not need to win the PV to get the most seats.

Indeed. I'm leaning NDP minority right now. Wish we had a poll

[lilTommy]

And remember, the NDP may not need to win the PV to get the most seats.

Indeed. I'm leaning NDP minority right now. Wish we had a poll

CRA seems to be the only one who does Atlantic specific polls, i'm sure they will have one more! we all know polls have become rubbish to some degree but it would be nice to have more then one that was released just before the election. Anyone have any insight into internal party polls on how their doing?

[DC Al Fine]

North Shore

Antigonish
Centred around the university town of Antigonish, this riding has one of the highest concentrations of Catholics in the country. The riding has been represented by guys with funny names for a long time. The 3 most recent ones were names Hyland, Tando, & Moe. The NDP & Tories have held the seat for the last 15 years, but the seat was a safe Liberal one before that and the Liberals have challenged for the seat even in their bad years. However, the PC's nearly won a by-election here during the NDP's honeymoon, so don't count them out.
Liberal-PC Tossup

Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie
The largest and least dense riding in the province, Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie has been a perfect bellwether since it's creation in 1988. Economically, the riding is poor, rural and focused on resource industries. The riding has become slightly less NDP friendly as parts of Antigonish County were added to it in the last redistribution.
Liberal-NDP Tossup

Pictou Centre
Centred on the small towns of New Glasgow and Stellarton, Pictou Centre is an urban riding in a largely rural area. It is dominated by Empire Company, which owns several different grocery chains across Canada, Empire Theatres and operates its own REIT. Because of this, the area is fairly well off. Historically Tory, the NDP managed to scrape out a win here in 2009, but are unlikely to hold it this time around. Premier Jon Hamm held this seat in the 1990's and early 2000's.
Lean PC

Pictou East
An almost entirely rural riding, the lobster industry dominates Pictou East. It was a mostly Tory seat in the past, but the NDP managed a close win in 2006 followed by a massive win (they went from 36% to 63%) in 2009. The NDP should retain the seat, especially given the Liberal weakness here, but the ridings voters are swingy, so it could be much closer than expected on election night.
Safe NDP

Pictou West
A largely rural farming riding, Scotsburn Dairy is the largest employer here. An historically Tory riding, it has drifted NDP over the years. The Tories barely won it in 1999 and lost it again in 2003, 2006 and 2009. With the Liberals a non-entity here, expect the NDP to retain this seat.
Safe NDP

[DC Al Fine]

And remember, the NDP may not need to win the PV to get the most seats.

Indeed. I'm leaning NDP minority right now. Wish we had a poll

CRA seems to be the only one who does Atlantic specific polls, i'm sure they will have one more! we all know polls have become rubbish to some degree but it would be nice to have more then one that was released just before the election. Anyone have any insight into internal party polls on how their doing?

If the Tories are doing polling, they're keeping it close to their chests.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories promise to cut HST 2%

NDP hearing-aid funding targets seniors

[DC Al Fine]

Greens up to 5 candidates now. Four in Halifax, and one in the Annapolis Valley

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard anonymous is attacking the NDP for making fake Twitter accounts.

[RogueBeaver]

New CRA poll out, pegs 48/28/23 with second preferences at 27/24 17 and 22% undecided.

[Hatman 🍁]

[DC Al Fine]

Cape Breton

Cape Breton Centre
Cape Breton Centre is coal country. The town of New Waterford dominates this riding. The mines have closed, and the riding is impoverished, and the few non-poors seem to be unionized government workers. Frank Corbett won a massive 80% of the vote for the NDP here in 2009.
Safe NDP

Cape Breton-Richmond
Consists of the mostly Acadian Richmond county and southern Cape Breton County, this riding has mostly primary industries except for Point Tupper, which is centred around power generation for Nova Scotia Power. The riding tends to be culturally divided with Anglos voting Tory and Acadians voting Liberal. Michel Samson is the popular Liberal MLA and should hold the seat.
Safe Liberal

Glace Bay
Consists entirely of the Town of Glace Bay. Another depressed mining community, it has a fairly devout Catholic population and has tended to vote Liberal although the NDP won it several times. Former NDP leader Jeremy Akerman held the seat throughout the 1970's. The previous MLA was ousted quit during an expense scandal, but the riding stayed Liberal. The Grits should hold this one again.
Safe Liberal

Inverness
This rural riding has the Cape Breton Highlands and the Cabot Trail. It's seriously beautiful in the summer and tourism is a huge employer here. Inverness has an Acadian population around Cheticamp and what's left of Nova Scotia's Gaelic community. Former Tory leader Rodney MacDonald held the seat until 2009 when Allan MacMaster barely held on in a by-election. The Liberal should pick this one up.
Lean Liberal

Northside-Westmount
An urban riding centred around the Towns of North Sydney and Sydney Mines. There are some depressed mining areas but most of Cape Breton's moneyed folks live here as well. Current Sydney mayor Cecil Clarke represented this seat for the TOries for a long time, and the PC's held the seat in a recent by-election.
Safe PC

Sydney-Whitney Pier
The core of industrial Cape Breton, Sydney-Whitney Pier is a former steel town. Whitney Pier is is quite multi-cultural hosting a variety of Eastern Europeans and my father's family. Much riding voted overwhelmingly NDP in the last by-election, but parts of Liberal Cape Breton South were added on, evening out the riding's lean. Paul MacEwan of hard left Cape Breton Labour fame held this riding for 9 elections and is responsible for the few strong Liberal results from when he became a Liberal. Grenier has this one as a tossup, but I believe this riding has a more consistent NDP lean than Cape Breton Centre. Besides the only good results the Liberals have had here are off of Paul MacEwan or his coat tails.
Lean NDP

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Consists of the middle class suburb of Sydney River with the heavily touristy areas of the Mira and Lousibourg. Louisbourg is an interesting historical site built when the French still owned Nova Scotia. The Tories have held this riding for about 10 years but mostly due to poor Liberal results. The Liberals should take it this time.
Lean Liberal

Victoria-The Lakes
A rural area with settlements centred around the Bras d'Or lakes. It has a large Mikmaq population and some Acadians as well. The economy is based around tourism with some mining. Like Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg it is Tory but only due to poor Liberal results. The Liberals should pick up this seat.
Lean Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals should win a majority with those numbers assuming the polls aren't blatantly off like Alberta or BC. NDP would be reduced to their urban base and the Tories would try and scrounge half a dozen rural seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals should win a majority with those numbers assuming the polls aren't blatantly off like Alberta or BC. NDP would be reduced to their urban base and the Tories would try and scrounge half a dozen rural seats.

Still nearly 3 weeks to go. Our assumption should be a Dipper win until the tally says otherwise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals should win a majority with those numbers assuming the polls aren't blatantly off like Alberta or BC. NDP would be reduced to their urban base and the Tories would try and scrounge half a dozen rural seats.

Still nearly 3 weeks to go. Our assumption should be a Dipper win until the tally says otherwise.

lol. If we assume a 10 point swing from polls like in AB or BC, then we have a tie ball game. Which means an NDP minority

[lilTommy]

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1155531-liberals-hold-solid-lead-in-nova-scotia-election-poll-suggests

The article, CRA says their poll is "better" since they used live calls.

Lets hope this puts the NDP campaign into overdrive... and the Liberals rest on their laurels (like in BC, but reverse)
A friend out east says that's not representative of what he's hearing at the door but it could be the riding's he's working in so.

I like this, i want the NDP to do more of this off-scripting:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dexter-goes-off-script-with-continuing-care-assistant-1.1860906

[DC Al Fine]

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1155531-liberals-hold-solid-lead-in-nova-scotia-election-poll-suggests

The article, CRA says their poll is "better" since they used live calls.

Lets hope this puts the NDP campaign into overdrive... and the Liberals rest on their laurels (like in BC, but reverse)
A friend out east says that's not representative of what he's hearing at the door but it could be the riding's he's working in so.

I like this, i want the NDP to do more of this off-scripting:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dexter-goes-off-script-with-continuing-care-assistant-1.1860906

What riding is he in?

[Hatman 🍁]

Pumped the numbers into my spreadsheet, got:

Liberals: 28 seats
NDP: 13
PCs: 10

10 pt swing to the NDP (38-38 tie) gives us:

NDP: 26 seats
Liberal: 16
PCs: 9

[lilTommy]

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1155531-liberals-hold-solid-lead-in-nova-scotia-election-poll-suggests

The article, CRA says their poll is "better" since they used live calls.

Lets hope this puts the NDP campaign into overdrive... and the Liberals rest on their laurels (like in BC, but reverse)
A friend out east says that's not representative of what he's hearing at the door but it could be the riding's he's working in so.

I like this, i want the NDP to do more of this off-scripting:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/dexter-goes-off-script-with-continuing-care-assistant-1.1860906

What riding is he in?

I just asked, interestingly enough Fairview-Clayton Park He's just saying he's not seeing a Liberal surge.
I thinking this is parked votes perhaps?

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news, I guess. That riding is certainly in play.

[Hatman 🍁]

My first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/nova-scotia-2013-election-september-20.html

[DC Al Fine]

My first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/nova-scotia-2013-election-september-20.html

I saw you made an adjustment in Cumberland North. You may also want to adjust Colchester North since the popular Tory MLA jumped to the Liberals.

On another note, the NDP will probably get a bit of a bump on election night. The Greens are polling 2-4% but aren't going to run anything close to a full slate. Their voters will probably go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

My first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/nova-scotia-2013-election-september-20.html

I saw you made an adjustment in Cumberland North. You may also want to adjust Colchester North since the popular Tory MLA jumped to the Liberals.

On another note, the NDP will probably get a bit of a bump on election night. The Greens are polling 2-4% but aren't going to run anything close to a full slate. Their voters will probably go NDP.

Yeah, I'll adjust the Green breakdown when the list of candidates is set. If they're polling at 2% with just 3 candidates, my spreadsheet will put 2% of the electorate in those three seats for awesome hilarity

I'm not touching Colchester North, that'll make things too dicey. Best to compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges, not apples that become oranges to oranges/apples.

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier's latest projection



Main thing to note: There are a lot of pale red ridings. It's still a race yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Almost the same as mine.