Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[Smid]

Agreed. I like Dexter so wouldn't be too disappointed if he won again.

Yeah; I find him rather likeable, I don't understand why he has a low favourability.

"Cut those who cut" wouldn't make much sense if voters are going to the rightest party.

Quite ironic that this phrase would apply to a Premier who shares a name with a tv drama serial killer...

[RogueBeaver]

Writ could drop as early as tomorrow, NDP about to unveil their platform (H/T CBC NS).

[lilTommy]

Agreed. I like Dexter so wouldn't be too disappointed if he won again.

Yeah; I find him rather likeable, I don't understand why he has a low favourability.

"Cut those who cut" wouldn't make much sense if voters are going to the rightest party.

That assumes the typical voter pays as much attention to provincial politics as we do

Dexter admittedly had to make some tough decisions.* Voters aren't happy with some of the cuts he's made. The Tories still have some taint from the last time they held power, so the Liberals are the remaining major choice.

*Some of which I wholeheartedly approve of... other's make me want to bang my head against a wall, but I digress.

Those tough decisions have paid off too, and the NS economy and finances are in their (arguably) best state they have ever been. For the most part the NDP have not been hit by huge scandals and can say they "kept their promises" from 2009. I think that huge undecided vote will migrate to the NDP once the campaign starts. Right now i agree, the Liberals are easy to park votes with. The NSNDP also won't make the same mistake as the BCNDP and are/will attack McNeil and the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Those undecideds might not break until they enter the voting booth seems to be the trend these days, anyways.

I think I will be making 2 prediction maps for this election. One based on polls and one based on the polls + a 10 point swing to the NDP.

[lilTommy]

NDP launch today at noon (Atlantic, so in like 10minutes)
https://twitter.com/briancbc/status/375982631633952768/photo/1 that backdrop and apparently the 7 commitments the party will run on.

new slogan "better future for today's families"... not to be confused with 2009s "a better deal for families" i think they kept the same election team do ya think HA!

[DC Al Fine]

Those undecideds might not break until they enter the voting booth seems to be the trend these days, anyways.

I think I will be making 2 prediction maps for this election. One based on polls and one based on the polls + a 10 point swing to the NDP.

Why 10%? I thought the swings for BC Liberals/Alberta Tories were in the 6-8% range.

The NDP doesn't have the same stability credentials as BC Liberals or the Alberta PC's. I imagine they will beat their current poll results. The Liberal vote is also very inefficient*, so I'm leaning NDP minority right now.

*Grenier's projection has them with 2 more seats than the NDP with a 10% lead.

[DC Al Fine]

Latest Grenier projection


Note the pale shades in the rural mainland and the outer suburbs of Halifax. This one will be tough to predict simply because of the # of seats that have a <10% margin.

EDIT: CRA counts leaning voters as undecided. 40% undecided isn't that extreme for them.

[RogueBeaver]

House of Assembly has been dissolved, E-Day Oct. 8.

[DC Al Fine]

House of Assembly has been dissolved, E-Day Oct. 8.

Let's go!

[DC Al Fine]

Baillie: Tory government wouldn’t honour NDP spending promises

Baillie also says NS will become the next Detroit or Greece if the NDP are re-elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's making the rounds, isn't it?

The Tories must be desperate. The NDP is doing just the opposite of what happened in Greece. Their problem was lack of taxes, which I'm sure you will agree is not a problem in Nova Scotia

The key planks against the NDP are raising taxes when they promised not to, and all of these 'desperate' attempts to gain votes by all these recent initiatives.

It is unfortunate that they had to raise taxes, but the NSNDP did the unthinkable, and now have a budget SURPLUS. How is that even possible, anyways? (have not province in not the best economic times) Because we're the NDP gosh darnit. That's exactly what Tommy Douglas did in Saskatchewan in 1944. But I digress.

Nova Scotia would be foolish to ditch the NDP. They have never had such good fiscal managers. If these polling numbers stay the same, I can only pray it will be a Liberal minority and not a majority. The Tories being a$$hats won't help that though.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP Budget Surplus < NDP pre-campaign spending initiatives.

[DC Al Fine]

Time for riding profiles! I'll be going region by region and including my projections. Feel free to ask any question

Annapolis Valley

Annapolis
This rural farming county has historically voted Liberal and is currently held by Liberal leader Stephen McNeil. It voted overwhelmingly for McNeil in 2009 and is expected to do the same
Safe Liberal


Clare-Digby
This riding was created by merging two safe Liberal seats (Clare & Digby-Annapolis). It  is a rural fishing area, has a high concentration of Acadians and is home to Nova Scotia's only French university. The two Liberal incumbents are retiring and the Grits are running an Anglophone which may hurt them a bit. However, I don't expect the seat to change hands.
Safe Liberal

Hants West
This riding is mostly rural farmland with some small towns. It was represented by Tory Ron Russell for nearly 30 years. Current MLA Chuck Porter has managed slim victories over the Liberals in the past two elections and will be vulnerable in this election as well.
Lean Liberal

Kings North
Kings North is a largely rural riding and is home to over half of the provinces farms. The Tories have held it from 1978-2009 when the NDP won it. The Liberals are quite weak here and the Tories are looking to pick up the seat.
Lean PC

Kings South
Kings South is centred around Acadia University which has about 4000 students and employs a large part of the riding. With the large student contingent, the NDP have been able to punch above their weight for a rural riding and picked it up in 2009. However Liberal gains make this seat vunerable.
Lean Liberal

Kings West
Home to CFB Greenwood, this riding is a mixture of soldiers and farmers. Popular Liberal MLA Leo Glavine won over 70% of the vote in 2009 and looks to repeat that feat in 2013.
Safe Liberal

[RogueBeaver]

Informal debate on Tuesday, formal debate on the 25th. Some lovely music to my ears: Liberals promise to end the power monopoly.

[MaxQue]

Informal debate on Tuesday, formal debate on the 25th. Some lovely music to my ears: Liberals promise to end the power monopoly.

And like in Ontario, power will be much more expensive after that.

[lilTommy]

Informal debate on Tuesday, formal debate on the 25th. Some lovely music to my ears: Liberals promise to end the power monopoly.

And like in Ontario, power will be much more expensive after that.

I'd love to see the NSNDP run on a bringing back public power to some degree (like a new public utility or nationalise (on a provincial level) NSpower). They have a decent/good record on pushing for renewable's (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2013/09/05/ns-south-canoe-wind-farm-to-be-built.html)

btw, the Liberals are basically going to try and govern like the NDP, so why not vote for the real thing!:
http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1152928-in-the-cross-hairs-tories-ndp-have-sights-set-on-liberals
"McNeil had said in the last week of August that the Liberals would keep those government commitments, but said Saturday they’d keep the capital spending plans, and review the annual operating spending plans."

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals wouldn't govern like the NDP at all. NS would be back in deficit territory in no time.

[DC Al Fine]

Baillie pledges to eliminate corporate tax on small businesses

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post: a look at the re-distribution (includes Space7's awesome pictogram): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/2013-nova-scotia-election-look-at-new.html

[RogueBeaver]

McNeil is hoping to harness some Trudeaumania for himself, even including Trudeau in some of his ads. You'd think he'd learn from that Harper-Hudak-Ford BBQ 2 years ago.

[DC Al Fine]

More quick profiles.

South Shore

Argyle-Barrington
This rural fishing area has a large Acadian population. Acadian Tory Chris D"Entremont has represented this riding since 2003. He won a huge majority in 2009 and should repeat the feat again.
Safe PC

Chester-St.Margaret's
This riding is a mixture of rural fishing and touristy areas and the exurbs outside of Halifax. All 3 parties have a strong presence here. The riding is gradually drifting left as Haligonians increase their share of the population.
Liberal-NDP Tossup

Lunenburg
Unsurprisingly, Lunenburg is centred around the town of Lunenburg, home to the Bluenose and a large frozen food company. All 3 parties have a solid presence here.
Lean NDP

Lunenburg West
A mixture of rural areas and the town of Bridgewater, a manufacturing hub. This riding has historically been a Liberal stronghold, but the PC's and NDP have held it in recent years.
Lean Liberal

Queens-Shelburne
This riding was formed by the merger of the old Queens and Shelburne ridings. Both of these ridings are rural and focused on primary industry (forestry & fishing respectively) and were historically held by the Tories, but the NDP won both ridings by large margins in 2009. Shelburne MLA and Fisheries Minister Sterling Belliveau will be running for the NDP in this seat
Safe NDP

Yarmouth
This historically Liberal fishing community was won by Tory Richard Hurlburt in 2009. However Hurlburt resigned in the midst of an expense scandal and the Liberals won the ensuing by-election.
Safe Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if any south shore riding can be considered 'safe' for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

A look at the major issues of the campaign

I wonder if any south shore riding can be considered 'safe' for the NDP.

That's just me guessing, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Space7]

Blog post: a look at the re-distribution (includes Space7's awesome pictogram): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/2013-nova-scotia-election-look-at-new.html

Yay!

Lunenburg
Unsurprisingly, Lunenburg is centred around the town of Lunenburg, home to the Bluenose and a large frozen food company. All 3 parties have a solid presence here.
Lean NDP

Also, according to the recent Amazing Race Canada episode in which this town was a location, the citizens like German bratwursts. That was probably made up in order to make the town more interesting.

Or does the frozen food factory make German bratwursts?

[DC Al Fine]

Blog post: a look at the re-distribution (includes Space7's awesome pictogram): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/2013-nova-scotia-election-look-at-new.html

Yay!

Lunenburg
Unsurprisingly, Lunenburg is centred around the town of Lunenburg, home to the Bluenose and a large frozen food company. All 3 parties have a solid presence here.
Lean NDP

Also, according to the recent Amazing Race Canada episode in which this town was a location, the citizens like German bratwursts. That was probably made up in order to make the town more interesting.

Or does the frozen food factory make German bratwursts?

It's mostly Germans down there, so it might be true. The frozen food company is all about fish sticks though