AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Darr's not the strongest candidate. The only Dem to express interest is former House Minority Leader Bobby Pierce (D-Sheridan).

Pryor on Obamacare: "No, I'm actually not" second-guessing my decision. Then discusses what he sees as its benefits. So he really wants to get thumped then.

[windjammer]

Maybe he wants to mobilize the base?

[RogueBeaver]

What base? With the Greatest Generation gone, Arkansas is now as Republican as Alabama. Enten concludes that at this point, the race leans Cotton.

[RogueBeaver]

More Pryor: in a local TV interview he insists that Obamacare "is actually working in a lot of ways" and after talking about frustration with Washington, the interviewer says "Senator, you are Washington." Hutchinson and Lincoln are still there- on K Street.

[windjammer]

What base? With the Greatest Generation gone, Arkansas is now as Republican as Alabama. Enten concludes that at this point, the race leans Cotton.

Arkansas hates Obama, it's sure. But I mean, I have the feeling that it's not a libertarian conservative state. I suppose they oppose Obamacare, like many Americans I guerre, I would like to know their opinion of Farm Bill,... I'm not sure it's unpopular. If it was unpopular, I suppose John Boozman wouldn't have voted this bill in the us senate. Arkansas is not Wyoming or Idaho.

And for the base, even if it's a R+14 state, they have a base. See Halter, he got 48% of the dem vote against Lincoln.

[RogueBeaver]

More Pryor on how awesome Obamacare is. From the same speech: job losses are just part of a capitalist economy. Latter's Kinsleyan: impolitic truth.

"I'm not opposed to earmarks."

[windjammer]

More Pryor on how awesome Obamacare is. From the same speech: job losses are just part of a capitalist economy. Latter's Kinsleyan: impolitic truth.

"I'm not opposed to earmarks."

I don't know why, but I have the feeling you will dislike him more and more .

[RogueBeaver]

I find him hilarious.

[tmthforu94]

More Pryor on how awesome Obamacare is. From the same speech: job losses are just part of a capitalist economy. Latter's Kinsleyan: impolitic truth.

"I'm not opposed to earmarks."

I don't know why, but I have the feeling you will dislike him more and more .

I just find his campaign strategy to be baffling. While many Democratic candidates in GOP states are running away from President Obama and Harry Reid, Mark Pryor seems to be getting closer and closer to him. It's like he's living in a false reality where Arkansas has a large percentage of progressive liberals, just waiting for the right candidate so that they may be unleashed and send him to victory.

[RogueBeaver]

My only guess is that he thought, if he put thought into it at all, that better this than Romneyesque gibberish or Lincoln pretending her voting record didn't exist. It'll get more interesting when Pryor has to explain why he supports the AWB in 2004 but opposes background checks now.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr will announce for the 4th on Monday evening.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton says he'll next target Pryor on guns. Lots of material there. So Senator, why the evolution?

[Miles]

Darr's margin in CD4 in 2010 was almost identical to his statewide margin, FWIW.

[Miles]

The Daily Beast has a decent profile on Cotton. It talks a lot about his ability to stake out far-right positions but still have the party united behind him.

[windjammer]

Am I the only guy on this forum who thinks Cotton could easily destroy his opportunity with an extreme comment?

[Brittain33]

Am I the only guy on this forum who thinks Cotton could easily destroy his opportunity with an extreme comment?

No I totally agree. I vote him most likely of the class of 2014 to say something really unfortunate about women.

[NewYorkExpress]

Am I the only guy on this forum who thinks Cotton could easily destroy his opportunity with an extreme comment?

No I totally agree. I vote him most likely of the class of 2014 to say something really unfortunate about women.

Won't matter 2014 will be a more GOP year than 2012, Cotton would need to have some sort of major sex scandal to lose.

[RogueBeaver]

Another conservative poll, this one by the Washington Free Beacon/Polling Company (that's their actual name) showing Pryor up 45/43, Cotton leading 48-38 with indies but Pryor 51/37 with women.

On another polling note, Tom Jensen said on Twitter that PPP won't poll AR unless someone pays them, so we can only wait for Talk Business and a real poll.

[windjammer]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/democratic-gun-politics-in-arkansas-senate-race-are-already

[RogueBeaver]

That's one issue Pryor won't be eager to discuss. Gillibrand wants a D seat, as the article mentions.

[windjammer]

Will the NRA endorse Cotton or this lobby will stay neutral?  I guess the NRA won't back one candidate in this race.

[RogueBeaver]

They'll back the man with a lifetime A rating, not the one with a lifetime C- rating.

[windjammer]

They'll back the man with a lifetime A rating, not the one with a lifetime C- rating.

How to say, I suppose Pryor made a compromise with them behind the scenes. He would have probably voted background check if he knew the NRA would be hostile toward him.
I suppose they will stay neutral.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Controversial Harvard Crimpson paper about divorce written by a young Cotton comes to the spotlight

[RogueBeaver]

A) he swatted that away last year, said through a spox recently that his view has changed. B) there's a disclaimer about the intentionally provocative and contrarian- a key part of his profile- nature of his columns. C) McDonnell's thesis didn't hurt in a purple state, etc. Particularly when the local media isn't touching it, as is the case here.

All this said, I don't agree with a youthful opinion he held 15 years ago and no longer holds.