AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

H/T Miles for encouraging me to borrow his LA/NC thread.

The big enchilada is the Senate race, where either Tom Cotton or Steve Womack, more likely Cotton, are expected to run against Mark Pryor. Either the 3rd or 4th would open up, and the 4th already has a few names interested on both sides should it become vacant.

First post from legendary journo Max Brantley explaining why Pryor's stuck between a rock and a hard place on guns.

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/04/20/the-spineless-gun-vote-why#readerComments

[RogueBeaver]

Darr saying that he'll make up his mind in the next few weeks. So either he's running for reelection as LG or someone will pull the Senate trigger before then. Timetable shifting again from Cotton's "many months" and Womack's "field clearer by summer." St. Sen. Bruce Baloch is considered a strong Dem nominee for the 4th should Cotton vacate it.

http://naturalstatereport.wordpress.com/2013/04/23/darr-to-make-2014-decision-in-the-next-few-weeks/

[morgieb]

Would prefer the 4th to open up. Better chance of the Dems winning

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, some say the 4th would even be a tossup, though I doubt an R+9 district which voted heavily for Romney is moving in a midterm. More competitive, as you said. So wait a few more weeks, see what happens.

[Vosem]

Who would be a Republican candidate in a second open election in the 4th? Darr himself?

[RogueBeaver]

Who would be a Republican candidate in a second open election in the 4th? Darr himself?

Some Pub state legislators. Best known, for all the wrong reasons, is St. Rep. Nate Bell. Darr lives in the 3rd, though just within the boundary. The others represent the area proper. Indeed one of Cotton's advantages over Womack is that he's from Dardanelle and Dems are stronger in south Ark. Womack's from traditionally Pub North Ark, like most prominent AR Pubs.

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/04/19/open-fire

[RogueBeaver]

Bloomberg is mulling an ad campaign against Pryor. That'll only boost Pryor's standing.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/mark-pryor-may-soon-have-a-bloomberg-problem-20130423

[RogueBeaver]

Brantley agrees, getting attacked by outsiders only helps Pryor. The liberal fantasy of a primary challenge to Pryor a) has no candidate b) would finish Pryor off before the GE since the stuff they'd hit him (mainly guns) on would send Blue Dogs Cotton's way. Pryor's still in a competitive position, Lincoln just got double-nuked.

More potential candidates for an open 4th: Beth Anne Rankin, who got thumped by Ross in 2010 and Cotton last year, and state legislators Lane Jean and Bruce Westerman. Since Cotton doesn't have ties with the state Pubs (only congressman who comes from there is Womack) so far as I know, he probably won't be endorsing in the primary.

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/04/24/morning-notes-protection-for-lake-maumelle#readerComments

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/04/24/report-bloomberg-looks-to-make-example-of-mark-pryor#readerComments

[RogueBeaver]

Darr confirms that he's interested in the 4th. Could be a ridiculously crowded primary.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/04/darr-considering-congressional-run/

[RogueBeaver]

Letterman roasted Pryor on guns last night, calling him a stooge. Plus he gave Cotton some oppo material by noting that Pryor authored 4 gun control bills in his legislative days. I'd use his AWB vote myself.

http://www.cbs.com/shows/late_show/wahoo_gazette

[RogueBeaver]

The Dems' strongest candidates in the 1st and 4th are out.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/04/first-and-fourth-congressional-district-candidates-update/

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton won't make up his mind till at least August, but he's leaning yes for now and the Senate GOP is very eager to have him.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=42B23587-E4A1-4B4B-AFFA-6C7B76DB37AC

[RogueBeaver]

Priebus was in Little Rock yesterday, met with a candidate. He also called Cotton a "strong candidate", though we don't know who the candidate in question was.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton: "I learned in the Army that it's never a good idea to say never and always a bad idea to say always." Reiterated that it's still early in the cycle. IOW, non-denial denials.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/05/cong-cotton-on-possible-senate-run-never-a-good-idea-to-say-never/

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton is prepping.

http://talkbusiness.net/2013/05/rep-darrin-williams-alice-stewart-debate-sen-mark-pryor-prospects-for-2014/

[RogueBeaver]

Ouch: ARGOP uses Pryor's "IQ test" quote from Religulous as an attack ad.

https://vine.co/v/b2UMEVrBw2p

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The person who made that probably agrees with Pryor on creationism, though.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor said he'd consider revisiting a Grassley-Manchin-Toomey hybrid. Soon he might get the nickname Senator Weathervane considering he can't stick to a position on this issue for more than a few weeks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100705312

[RogueBeaver]

Griffin is enthusiastically backing Cotton.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcdH450ITDk&list=UUtfds6byH4TzyS6QwyF0zHA&index=5

[Miles]

Darr is moving out of CD3 and probably into CD4.

[RogueBeaver]

He'll have to wait a few months. I assume that's prep work, fundraising and the proverbial decent interval- though by AR standards Cotton's getting in fairly early. Of course for all intents and purposes that "more likely than not" backgrounder means he's in.

[RogueBeaver]

Crawford is running for reelection as expected. 2 down, 2 to go.

[RogueBeaver]

NRSC claims they're looking at a few candidates, but seems like smoke-blowing to me.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton will enter this summer and is prepping a team for when he does. Given his statement last month I'd say August. Pryor probably chooses a hyper-local strategy.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor's getting hit with 350k worth of Bloomberg ads over the next 2 weeks. My question is whether they include his '02 support of Brady and '04 support of AWB as part of a "shame" tack.