AR Congressional Races 2014

[windjammer]

Well, this race will be really interesting. Personally, I have the feeling that Cotton will destroy himself and other posters think he will be really strong. Two opposite visions, one of us will be completely wrong. I hope it won't be me but I know I can often be wrong because of my lack of impartiality!

[RogueBeaver]

I read on Kos that there are rumors of the DSCC considering intervention in Pryor's campaign by replacing his campaign staff with their own people. Have you heard that, Jerry? To me it seems quite plausible if a bit premature. For instance, Pryor doesn't even have a proper website up- only a splash page. He should definitely ditch the media handlers after yesterday's interview though.

[RogueBeaver]

Reports that a "progressive redneck" Dem with Clinton ties is being recruited for the 4th. Beebe was decidedly unenthusiastic "That's his business" about Halter in the 2nd, but then again he's never been a Halter fan and all but endorsed Ross in the primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Turns out that poll was conducted by AFSCME. Even better: 55% of respondents said they were more likely to vote against someone who supported Obamacare. Imagine what a PPP/TB poll would say both on this and toplines...

[windjammer]

I hope PPP will poll Arkansas. So few polls...

[RogueBeaver]

Or TB. Rankin says "No decision right now. You know I love the Fourth Congressional District, so I'm seriously and prayerfully considering it." She'll run and place third in the primary.

Looking at 2010, PPP didn't poll until Boozman formally declared in January- their one and only poll since she was terminal at 56/33. This time I suspect PPP will stick around.

[windjammer]

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/93940/bill-halters-exit-creates-hope-for-arkansas-democrats-ap-analysis

Griffin is popular? I guess Halter has no chance.

[RogueBeaver]

Griffin's popular but more importantly, the Dems will be shut out federally. More accurately, the Dem establishment pathologically despises Halter and doesn't want him running for anything- not for Congress, nor are they keen on him being the nominee against Boozman in 2016. They'd prefer McDaniel.

[windjammer]

Griffin's popular but more importantly, the Dems will be shut out federally. More accurately, the Dem establishment pathologically despises Halter and doesn't want him running for anything- not for Congress, nor are they keen on him being the nominee against Boozman in 2016. They'd prefer McDaniel.

Mcdaniel? I think his career is ended...
Honestly, Halter is just too far on the left to win...

[RogueBeaver]

Dems already have a scare site up, nothing which a DSCC press release hasn't mentioned before.

[RogueBeaver]

For Miles: Draft Halter in CD2 on FB.

Pryor's going up with a $50k ad burst tomorrow and Wednesday in LR/Jonesboro/Ft. Smith. Somehow I suspect they won't be positive.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the ad, which reminds everyone who has the R+14 voting record in an R+14 state. Amazingly they're hitting Cotton for opposing Obamacare.

[Conflicted Progressive]

Cotton is (from that one poll) at the Republican floor since his name recognition is fairly low. Pryor is doing the right thing in trying to drive up his negatives before he can define himself.

I don't see the ad as attacking Cotton from the left as much as attacking him from a more "populist" position, similar to how ALG is running on her issues in Kentucky. I actually think that the 'ambitious' label might be fairly powerful, especially in such a Bubba state such as Arkansas.

Also, I'm skeptical on the whole PVI-hype for this state as well as for Kentucky. The Democrats haven't been killed off at the local level and I feel like there are plenty of voters in these states that are looking for reasons to support Democrats not named Obama.

[RogueBeaver]

Trende takes a deep dive, including geographic. Concludes a tossup but with his finger on the scale for Cotton.

[Miles]

That Trende article was a good read.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a livestream of the announcement. Plus a Pryor interview.

[JerryArkansas]

He just now said he is in.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. He said he'll stand with Arkansas and lead from the front as he's (literally) done before, whereas Pryor's a wimpy backbench Obama stooge- whose slogan "Arkansas First" is a fraud.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor called Obamacare "an amazing success story so far." Needless to say the ad writes itself.

C4G endorses Cotton as expected.

[RogueBeaver]

C4G is going up with a 6-figure ad buy for this.

[windjammer]

Here's the ad, which reminds everyone who has the R+14 voting record in an R+14 state. Amazingly they're hitting Cotton for opposing Obamacare.

I'm sorry Roguebeaver but this ad doesn't speak about Obamacare.

[RogueBeaver]

He doesn't use the word Obamacare, premiums and pre-existing conditions are mentioned. At any rate here's the "amazing success" video.

[windjammer]

He doesn't use the word Obamacare, premiums and pre-existing conditions are mentioned. At any rate here's the "amazing success" video.

My god, Pryor is stupid

[RogueBeaver]

He doesn't use the word Obamacare, premiums and pre-existing conditions are mentioned. At any rate here's the "amazing success" video.

My god, Pryor is stupid

Can't say I disagree.

Meanwhile downballot, Westerman will announce for the 4th tomorrow. Darr will be getting in within a week. Cotton had a friendly chat with Westerman yesterday judging from FB pix, make of that what you will. Westerman's by far the strongest candidate anyways.

[windjammer]

Is Darr a bit a looser? It's the feeling I have toward him.

Is there a dem interested?