US-Canada County Maps Thread

[MaxQue]

Before someone asks why the most recent date is from 2001, religion is only asked every 2 Censuses. It wasn't asked in 2006, it was asked in 2011, but Statistics Canada is always very slow to publish data.

Religion data should be out on May 8.

[RI]

If anyone is wondering, I'm currently working on taking my second projection and applying it to federal ridings, and shortly thereafter I'll do the reverse projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

If anyone is wondering, I'm currently working on taking my second projection and applying it to federal ridings, and shortly thereafter I'll do the reverse projection.

What data will you be using?

Before someone asks why the most recent date is from 2001, religion is only asked every 2 Censuses. It wasn't asked in 2006, it was asked in 2011, but Statistics Canada is always very slow to publish data.

Religion data should be out on May 8.

Really? *drools*

[RI]

If anyone is wondering, I'm currently working on taking my second projection and applying it to federal ridings, and shortly thereafter I'll do the reverse projection.

What data will you be using?

All of the same Census data I used for my census division projections is available for ridings.

[MaxQue]

Before someone asks why the most recent date is from 2001, religion is only asked every 2 Censuses. It wasn't asked in 2006, it was asked in 2011, but Statistics Canada is always very slow to publish data.

Religion data should be out on May 8.

Really? *drools*

Well, I read so in the monthly newsletter of l'"Observatoire de l'Abitibi-Témiscamingue", which is some regional statistic institute.Given than they work in similar areas, I suppose they may be aware.

They said (long-form):

May 8: Immigration, Citizenship, Birth place, Language, Ethnic origin, Visibles minorities, Religion and First Nations
June 26: Work, Scolarity, Work place, Transit, Mobility and migration and Work language
August 14: Revenue, Gains, Housing and Housing costs.

EDIT: Proof: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/NHS-ENM/index-eng.cfm

[Hash]

Just a reminder that the "NHS" data this year will probably be crappy given the destruction of the long-form census by the Purgatories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Before someone asks why the most recent date is from 2001, religion is only asked every 2 Censuses. It wasn't asked in 2006, it was asked in 2011, but Statistics Canada is always very slow to publish data.

Religion data should be out on May 8.

Really? *drools*

Well, I read so in the monthly newsletter of l'"Observatoire de l'Abitibi-Témiscamingue", which is some regional statistic institute.Given than they work in similar areas, I suppose they may be aware.

They said (long-form):

May 8: Immigration, Citizenship, Birth place, Language, Ethnic origin, Visibles minorities, Religion and First Nations
June 26: Work, Scolarity, Work place, Transit, Mobility and migration and Work language
August 14: Revenue, Gains, Housing and Housing costs.

EDIT: Proof: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/NHS-ENM/index-eng.cfm

I ended up finding that last night. It's confusing because the NHS stuff isn't on the census part of the statscan site. It's as if they're not the same thing anymore.

[RI]

Projection by riding (with industry data):



Obama wins 174 (99 outside of Quebec), Romney wins 134 (all outside of Quebec).

[Hatman 🍁]

Some interesting things going on there.

All that red in Calgary and Edmonton looks strange.

[Хahar 🤔]

The urban-rural divide is rather stronger in America than in Canada, which explains that.

[RI]

It shouldn't come as much shock what the outcome of my 2011 Canada election projection onto the US is -- a Conservative rout, though mostly by vote splitting. The national popular vote would be 41.12% Conservative, 28.83% Liberal, 25.69% NDP, and 4.36% Green, assuming no BQ vote. The Conservatives would win ~90% of counties nationally.

State map:

Best Liberal states:
1. Connecticut 37.83%
2. Massachusetts 37.55%
3. New Jersey 36.49%
4. Illinois 34.86%
5. California 34.20%
6. Rhode Island 34.13%
7. New York 33.13%
8. Michigan 30.60%
9. Delaware 30.36%
10. Maryland 29.68%

Best NDP states:
1. Maine 36.65%
2. Vermont 34.97%
3. West Virginia 34.57%
4. New Hampshire 32.33%
5. Oregon 31.31%
6. Michigan 30.81%
7. Indiana 30.19%
8. Ohio 29.85%
9. Kentucky 28.95%
10. Colorado 28.36%

Best Green states:
1. Washington 7.24%
2. Oregon 7.14%
3. Alaska 6.46%
4. Maine 6.21%
5. Arizona 6.13%
6. Colorado 6.10%
7. New Hampshire 5.78%
8. Vermont 5.65%
9. Nevada 5.47%
10. Montana 5.46%

Most evenly divided (3-way) states:
1. Michigan (C 34.6, N 30.8, L 30.6)
2. Georgia (C 38.8, L 29.1, N 28.2)
3. New York (C 36.7, L 33.1, N 26.2)
4. Rhode Island (C 34.6, L 34.1, N 26.9)
5. South Carolina (C 40.8, L 27.9, N 27.

[bgwah]

Thanks for sharing. What makes WA >40% and OR only >30%? Or is it a tiny difference (like 40.2 and 39.7 or something)?

If you know 90% of counties go for the Conservatives, does that mean you've already made a county map...? Given the Conservatives wins of almost everything due to vote-splitting, strength maps for each party could be interesting.

[RI]

Thanks for sharing. What makes WA >40% and OR only >30%? Or is it a tiny difference (like 40.2 and 39.7 or something)?

If you know 90% of counties go for the Conservatives, does that mean you've already made a county map...? Given the Conservatives wins of almost everything due to vote-splitting, strength maps for each party could be interesting.

I'll make up some county maps tonight when I have time, including maps for each party; I have all the county results projected already.

WA and OR are projected nearly identically, except that the NDP is about 3% stronger in Oregon, leading to Oregon being 3% less Conservative (WA is 41.96% Con, OR is 38.98% Con). I think some of the difference is in the high Hispanic population of eastern Washington; my model isn't kind to the NDP in Latino areas. Also, Multnomah County, OR is projected in NDP hands whereas King County, WA is projected for the Conservatives.

[RI]

Top counties for each party:

Conservative:
1. Blaine, Nebraska - 95.79%
2. Carter, Nebraska - 94.66%
3. Wheeler, Nebraska - 94.35%
4. Rock, Nebraska - 94.35%
5. Liberty, Montana - 92.11%
6. Grant, Nebraska - 91.80%
7. Petroleum, Montana - 91.66%
8. Loup, Nebraska - 91.41%
9. Keya Paha, Nebraska - 91.12%
10. Powder River, Montana - 89.54%

Liberal:
1. Buffalo, South Dakota - 54.67%
2. Wilcox, Alabama - 53.70%
3. Ziebach, South Dakota - 53.25%
4. Wade Hampton, Alaska - 52.39%
5. New York, New York - 49.27%
6. Clay, Kentucky - 48.89%
7. Allendale, South Carolina - 47.94%
8. Fairfield, Connecticut - 47.07%
9. Hudson, New Jersey - 47.04%
10. Yukon-Koyukuk, Alaska - 46.42%

NDP:
1. Elliott, Kentucky - 64.17%
2. Carter, Kentucky - 59.79%
3. Potter, Pennsylvania - 55.98%
4. Morgan, Kentucky - 55.85%
5. Douglas, Missouri - 55.29%
6. Culberson, Texas - 54.42%
7. Quitman, Georgia - 54.19%
8. Tazewell, Virginia - 53.41%
9. Fulton, New York - 52.25%
10. Johnson, Kentucky - 51.59%

Green:
1. Skagway, Alaska - 19.08%
2. San Juan, Washington - 15.31%
3. Haines, Alaska - 14.15%
4. Clatsop, Oregon - 12.84%
5. Sierra, California - 11.98%
6. Lincoln, Oregon - 11.25%
7. Curry, Oregon - 10.96%
8. Park, Colorado - 9.95%
9. Ouray, Colorado - 9.90%
10. Multnomah, Oregon - 9.83%

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering what Demographics you're using. Based on polling data I've seen, the NDP won the black vote (albeit narrowly over the Liberals). The NDP won the Hispanic vote (huge margin of error though. Tories won the (East) Asian vote and the White vote.

[RI]

It's more than a bit odd looking, but here's the first map for my initial projection:

[RI]

Liberal, Version 1 (5% increments):



NDP, Version 1 (5% increments):



Green, Version 1 (1% increments):

[Gass3268]

What were the %'s in Dane County? I have a hard time imagining it voting Conservative unless the three/four way split was really close.

[RI]

What were the %'s in Dane County? I have a hard time imagining it voting Conservative unless the three/four way split was really close.

The model has Dane County at 37.5% Con, 31.5% Lib, 24.8% NDP, and 5.3% Green.

[RI]

I ran a second model that ignored Quebec entirely, and for some reason, Hispanics ended up supporting the Liberals, though some strange things happened in a number of minoritied areas:

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What does that do to the state map? That looks like an overwhelmingly Liberal California. New Mexico and New Jersey, too.

[7,052,770]

You should try another 2012 with a realistic Canada (Obama winning big in every province).

[traininthedistance]

You should try another 2012 with a realistic Canada (Obama winning big in every province).

Eh, I'd expect Romney to possibly win Alberta.

[7,052,770]

You should try another 2012 with a realistic Canada (Obama winning big in every province).

Eh, I'd expect Romney to possibly win Alberta.

That's fine, if that's what the data suggests.  I find that kinda surprising if true though.

[Hatman 🍁]

You should try another 2012 with a realistic Canada (Obama winning big in every province).

Eh, I'd expect Romney to possibly win Alberta.

No. Obama led there too.