US-Canada County Maps Thread

[RI]

2008 by Aggregated Dissemination Area
2012 by Aggregated Dissemination Area
2016 by Aggregated Dissemination Area
2008-2012 Swing by ADA
2012-2016 Swing by ADA

[DC Al Fine]

What does the national PV look like under your model RI?

[RI]

What does the national PV look like under your model RI?

The current version of the model suggests:

2016: Trump 47.2, Clinton 43.2
2012: Romney 49.4, Obama 48.0
2008: McCain 49.6, Obama 47.8

Why is this the case? Well, Canada has very few black or Hispanic people, instead having far more Asians and Natives, a trade-off which pushes Canada more Republican off the bat. Canada also has a higher rate of marriage, lower divorce rate, lower rate of college completion, lower median income, much higher employment in natural resources, older median age, and lower population density.

I suspect there are some variables I'm not accounting for which might bring the Democratic share up. Religion might be one, but getting sub-county US religion data is virtually impossible, so I'm trying to come up with a consistent work-around. I'm sure there are other important variables  which could be added which I'm not thinking of.

[DC Al Fine]

What does the national PV look like under your model RI?

The current version of the model suggests:

2016: Trump 47.2, Clinton 43.2
2012: Romney 49.4, Obama 48.0
2008: McCain 49.6, Obama 47.8

Why is this the case? Well, Canada has very few black or Hispanic people, instead having far more Asians and Natives, a trade-off which pushes Canada more Republican off the bat. Canada also has a higher rate of marriage, lower divorce rate, lower rate of college completion, lower median income, much higher employment in natural resources, older median age, and lower population density.

I suspect there are some variables I'm not accounting for which might bring the Democratic share up. Religion might be one, but getting sub-county US religion data is virtually impossible, so I'm trying to come up with a consistent work-around. I'm sure there are other important variables  which could be added which I'm not thinking of.

Language is the only big one I can think of. Francophones usually vote to the left of the Anglos, albeit with a right wing populist trend in recent years (which sounds kind of like American francophone come to think of it). That would swing things quite a bit.

[Hatman 🍁]

Need to account for the demos of "White liberals" somehow.

Definitely an interesting experiment. Clearly shows how different the political cultures are in the two different countries.

[RI]

What does the national PV look like under your model RI?

The current version of the model suggests:

2016: Trump 47.2, Clinton 43.2
2012: Romney 49.4, Obama 48.0
2008: McCain 49.6, Obama 47.8

Why is this the case? Well, Canada has very few black or Hispanic people, instead having far more Asians and Natives, a trade-off which pushes Canada more Republican off the bat. Canada also has a higher rate of marriage, lower divorce rate, lower rate of college completion, lower median income, much higher employment in natural resources, older median age, and lower population density.

I suspect there are some variables I'm not accounting for which might bring the Democratic share up. Religion might be one, but getting sub-county US religion data is virtually impossible, so I'm trying to come up with a consistent work-around. I'm sure there are other important variables  which could be added which I'm not thinking of.

Language is the only big one I can think of. Francophones usually vote to the left of the Anglos, albeit with a right wing populist trend in recent years (which sounds kind of like American francophone come to think of it). That would swing things quite a bit.

I actually do take language into account, albeit imperfectly as there aren't that many Francophone areas (or even non-English areas) in the US to extrapolate from. French-speaking areas in the US tend to Republican-leaning on average as well.

[RI]

Need to account for the demos of "White liberals" somehow.

Definitely an interesting experiment. Clearly shows how different the political cultures are in the two different countries.

What would their defining characteristics be? I take into account income, education, density, industry (incl. science, arts, recreation/tourism, etc.), age. I mentioned religion already as an issue. What else is there to draw from that there's data for?

[DPKdebator]

What are the margins of victory in each province?

[Hatman 🍁]

Need to account for the demos of "White liberals" somehow.

Definitely an interesting experiment. Clearly shows how different the political cultures are in the two different countries.

What would their defining characteristics be? I take into account income, education, density, industry (incl. science, arts, recreation/tourism, etc.), age. I mentioned religion already as an issue. What else is there to draw from that there's data for?

Not sure, to be honest.

I'm not sure if this data will help, but it we did a poll of the US election (over 10k responses) back in June 2016, here is the breakdown by demo (atlas colours):

National:
Clinton: 63
Trump: 14
Johnson: 3
Stein: 7
Other: 14

BC+Terr: 59-11-1-11-18
AB: 46-28-6-5-15
SK: 52-25-3-3-16
MB: 62-15-2-7-14
ON: 62-13-3-7-14
QC: 73-8-2-5-12
NB: 54-14-6-5-22
NS: 63-9-4-8-16
PEI: 62-8-3-17-8
NL: 73-9-4-3-12

Males: 54-19-4-7-16
Females: 71-8-2-7-13

<45: 58-13-3-9-16
45-54: 64-14-3-6-13
55-64: 65-14-2-5-13
65-74: 69-12-2-5-12
75+: 69-16-1-3-11

Liberals: 81-4-1-3-11
Conservatives: 39-45-6-1-9
New Democrats: 66-3-2-7-22
Greens: 39-2-2-32-26


Based on the feedback from the poll, most of the people picking "other" were disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters, as the poll was done just before Clinton "won" the primaries.