EP elections 2014

[freek]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

Pretty miffed I didn't get my stempas in the post . When I went to drop off my application to my commune the woman seemed totally clueless to the fact that I could vote in the Netherlands as an EU citizen.

Looks like I'll only be voting for regional and federal on Saturday. A shame because the political parties on offer in the Netherlands are more interesting and varied.

Anyway, there is a programme on dutch TV that will release exit poll results from 40,000 members in order to analyse the political scene. Seems like a dick move to me. How can you possibly determine how a country has voted through 40.000 random people. Almost a ludicrous as polls.

Did you register yourself?

http://www.alkmaar.nl/gemeente/webcms/site/gemeente/actueel/files/p_70122.pdf

[Franzl]

I was a volunteer at the polling station again, my shift ended at 1630. Polls close at 2100, I will have to go back then for the count.

Turnout was pretty low in our station, comparable/lower than in 2009, and about half of the turnout for Second Chamber elections. We opened 5 minutes late, the city had forgotten to deliver the ballots. .

Pretty miffed I didn't get my stempas in the post . When I went to drop off my application to my commune the woman seemed totally clueless to the fact that I could vote in the Netherlands as an EU citizen.

Looks like I'll only be voting for regional and federal on Saturday. A shame because the political parties on offer in the Netherlands are more interesting and varied.

Anyway, there is a programme on dutch TV that will release exit poll results from 40,000 members in order to analyse the political scene. Seems like a dick move to me. How can you possibly determine how a country has voted through 40.000 random people. Almost a ludicrous as polls.

The beauty of statistics. It almost always works.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voted not long ago. Polling station was slow but there was a steady flow of people. If that's any indication it might be a better-than-average low turnout mid-term poll, but this is a high turnout area.

[afleitch]

Didn't make up my mind until I got to the booth. Voted SNP (voted Tory previous two times)

[EPG]

What's the best thing to do as a two-man party on Euro- and council election day?

Begin your acrimonious split into two one-man parties.

[Supersonic]

Voted about a couple of hours ago in Birmingham and turnout was pretty good, a lot of the student population where I live were voting in groups of six or seven, of course, that's not much to go on. It's started raining here now though, and apparently there's a major thunderstorm in London which will probably depress turnout if it continues.

Haha, I saw that. Most likely linked to UKIPs 'gays with cause floods and freak weather'.

Didn't make up my mind until I got to the booth. Voted SNP (voted Tory previous two times)

Was this a 'stop UKIP' vote? The SNP have been trumping that line on Twitter.

[Hash]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

I guess Nouvelle Donne wouldn't be a bad choice, but it's a wasted vote so meh. I'm glad I can vote in Italy instead, so that I can give my vote to a pro-Tsipras party that isn't led by a sanctimonious moron.

[Zanas]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

Frankly, vote EELV. They are not assured of getting their second candidate in IdF elected, and they usually are the most intelligent in the EP. I tend to agree more with Greenies than my own FG MEPs on a number of votes, particularly, but not solely, on environment-related ones.

Your EELV vote could get Eva Joly into the EP, and even if you don't always agree with her, she usually has this quite iconoclast and refreshing way that we need.

I told the same advice to my office coworker who was hesitating between FG and EELV. Us FG will very likely get our MEP in IdF anyway, and we won't get a second by any means.

Oh and another note on my blog tonight. FN stable, UMP and PS a bit down, Alternative and FG finally taking off and EELV stable.

Could be a three-way race for fourth place with a clear FG dynamic in the latest days.

   16-mai   20-mai   21-mai   22-mai   23-mai
FN   23,21   22,95   22,91   22,93   22,99
UMP   21,87   21,33   21,58   21,60   21,34
PS   16,65   17,09   17,11   17,02   16,71
Modem-UDI   8,84   9,40   9,51   9,55   9,68
EELV   9,10   8,90   8,79   8,90   9,24
FG   6,94   7,21   7,23   7,47   7,77
DLR   2,54   2,55   2,55   2,52   2,53
ND      1,99   1,88   1,99   1,98
NPA   1,43   1,37   1,27   1,16   1,19

Seats :
FN   22,99   21
UMP   21,34   20
PS   16,71   13
Modem-UDI   9,68   7
EELV   9,24   6
FG   7,77   4


And, another thing. The national global scores needed for each FG seat :
1.   Île de France (Le Hyaric, PCF) : 5,1%
2.   Sud-Ouest (Mélenchon, PG) : 5,4%
3.   Sud-Est (Vergiat, non encartée) : 5,9%
4.   Nord-Ouest (Hénin, PCF) : 6,4%
5.   Ouest (Martin, Ensemble) : 8,7%
6.   Centre (Morel-Darleux, PG) : 9,3%
7.   Île de France 2 (Garrido, PG) : 10%
8.   Est (Amard, PG) : 10,1%

As you can see, keeping their 4 incumbent MEPs will be relatively easy, getting a fifth is another paire de manches...

[justfollowingtheelections]

One vote really doesn't change anything, so strategic voting doesn't make much sense IMO.  Our vote is more of a symbolic gesture, so I would advice you to vote for whatever party you feel closer to.

[EPG]

A handful of votes often do matter; ask the electors of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A handful of votes often do matter; ask the electors of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

It might, but not in this case.  I doubt Pasok leader's vote will make a difference.  If he wants to vote for a small party that he agrees with, he should IMO.  It might seem like a thrown-away vote, but who knows, it might encourage others to vote for that party in another election.

[Zanas]

A handful of votes often do matter; ask the electors of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

It might, but not in this case.  I doubt Pasok leader's vote will make a difference.  If he wants to vote for a small party that he agrees with, he should IMO.  It might seem like a thrown-away vote, but who knows, it might encourage others to vote for that party in another election.

If 100,000 votes matter and change the election, they're made of 100,000 times one vote, who probably asked itself who he was gonna vote for. So of course one vote do matter.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A handful of votes often do matter; ask the electors of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

It might, but not in this case.  I doubt Pasok leader's vote will make a difference.  If he wants to vote for a small party that he agrees with, he should IMO.  It might seem like a thrown-away vote, but who knows, it might encourage others to vote for that party in another election.

If 100,000 votes matter and change the election, they're made of 100,000 times one vote, who probably asked itself who he was gonna vote for. So of course one vote do matter.

Voting certainly matters, what I'm saying is that one vote cannot determine who wins an election (unless Pasok leader can vote 100,000 times).  My point is that if those 100,000 who wanted to vote for a small party chose not to because they felt they would be throwing their vote away, then that small party would never gain traction.  I personally always vote for the party I feel closer to ideologically no matter how small it is (in 2012 I wanted Obama to win, but I voted for Stein).  It might seem like a wasted vote, but who knows maybe one day the USA Green Party will become a force, and maybe that one vote I gave it, will give them the courage to continue.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

[Lasitten]

I personally always vote for the party I feel closer to ideologically no matter how small it is (in 2012 I wanted Obama to win, but I voted for Stein).  It might seem like a wasted vote, but who knows maybe one day the USA Green Party will become a force, and maybe that one vote I gave it, will give them the courage to continue.

I completely agree on this; there's no useless vote.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Last two polls from Sweden:

Ipsos:

S - 24,9%
M - 16,5%
MP - 13,8%
FP - 10,4%
V - 8,4%
SD - 6,9%
KD - 6,3%
C - 6,0%
F! - 4,5%
PP- 1,8%

Sifo:

S - 28,3%
M - 18,1%
MP - 12,5%
FP - 8,8%
SD - 8,6%
V - 6,6%
C - 5,3%
KD - 4,9%
F! - 4,3%
PP- 2,2%

The polls for this thing is all over the place. The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain.

And that the Greens will do exceedingly well, and the Social Democrats will be the largest party.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day to apply for absentee/postal ballots in person.

Tomorrow I will post the total number of requested ballots (which could be an indicator of turnout).

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

[SPQR]

I'm voting on Saturday, but I don't know who to vote for. I'm torn between the greenies (EELV), which will win at least one seat in my constituency and which is the major party I agree with the most but I'm not a big fan of them since they're useless and idiotic careerists and their performance in government was crappy (otoh, I credit them for not buying into Valls' scam and their MEPs are actually competent); or the tiny and irrelevant regionalist list (R&PS), which stands zero chance of winning seats and will do horribly, but they're probably the one list I sympathize with the most as a French regionalist myself. I've also considered voting 'Nouvelle donne', a new leftist-progressive party which wants some FDR-like New Deal.

Any recommendations?

I guess Nouvelle Donne wouldn't be a bad choice, but it's a wasted vote so meh. I'm glad I can vote in Italy instead, so that I can give my vote to a pro-Tsipras party that isn't led by a sanctimonious moron.

The Italian pro-Tsipras party is just as bad
Same bunch of old leftists who were in Rivoluzione Civile last year...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   

[Tender Branson]

For Sunday, some bad news for election day turnout: The weather is projected to be great, which means many people will be out for biking or for a walk instead of voting.

Oh c'mon! This must be the greatest political myth of all time. Have there ever been any actual proof that weather affect turn-out except in the most extreme weather conditions? Every election you hear reports that turn-out will be down because the weather was too nice, so people went out-side instead, or too bad, so people didn't want to leave home, or too mediocre, so people didn't get in the right mood to go and vote.

I've however never seen any scientific proof that there is even correlation, let alone cause, between a certain weather and a certain turn-out.   

Don't know if there's something scientific out there to analyze these situations, but I think weather could play at least a minor role.

[SPQR]

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413001212

No effect,according to him.

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

[SPQR]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

Same everywhere.
First they push the extremists (here it happened with the Five Star Movement),then they understand what kind of mess they are,and attack (even if based on little,if any,evidence).

[Zanas]

So absolutely no exit poll for the UK ? That's disappointing. Anyway, in France the media, after having rooted for FN all the way to the election (directly or indirectly), are now loudly saying that Wilders, Le Pen's allyu, failed miserably, when we only have an exit poll that can change on Sunday, and that the European eurosceptic right is in a bad place because of that...

How can anyone be as stupid as French journalists ? How on Earth, geez !

Same everywhere.
First they push the extremists (here it happened with the Five Star Movement),then they understand what kind of mess they are,and attack (even if based on little,if any,evidence).

You have way too much faith in them. They don't understand anything other than being able to not drool all the time. They just want to sell a story, and nothing sells a story better than plot twists, even if you have to make them up completely...

Anyway, some of my folks on a French forum have been seeing reports on "reliable" twitter accounts that the ranking for EP in the UK would be Lab-Con-Ukip-Green-LibDem.

Anything at all corroborating this ?