EP elections 2014

[Tender Branson]

While it could certainly be argued that the Eurovision Song Contest is of more importance than the European Elections, general discussion of it and of the specific controversies of this year should be discussed in the off topic board, not here.

But my post can stay here, right ?

(It's related to the election, with Faymann thinking of "getting some final boost") ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a 'lol politician cosying up to popular celebrity, hahaha' post, and they're fine.

[EPG]

An example of how Ireland is different: at least 3 out of 4 ALDE candidates are absolutely pro-life, even (explicitly or tacitly) when the life of the mother is at risk.

[Cassius]

An example of how Ireland is different: at least 3 out of 4 ALDE candidates are absolutely pro-life, even (explicitly or tacitly) when the life of the mother is at risk.

Yes well, Fianna Fail's main reason for being in ALDE is basically that there's no room at the inn in the EPP. I mean, it wouldn't really work having both FF and FG in the same European parliamentary grouping (even if these are irrelevant).

[Tender Branson]

I decided to do some election poster-tagging and flyering for "Europa Anders" ("A different Europe") this week, mostly in my district.

In Saalfelden and Zell am See (which in EP elections are SPÖ and former Martin strongholds), I will put a ton of "Social Democrats vote differently" posters up.

It's probably a bit too late already and it won't influence many people, but maybe some late-deciders.

EA is the Austrian leftist Tsipras affiliate.

 

 

They currently are at 2-3% in the polls, so they need every help they can get ...

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

[Zanas]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

[Tender Branson]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Good, if that would happen.

The problem with EA (and any small party) is that they don't have a lot of cash to finance their campaign, like the big parties have (SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS all spend between 2-5 Mio. € each on this election, while EA only has 100.000€ alltogether). Remember that even NEOS has a wealthy millionaire backer to finance their campaigns.

So, they have to rely much more on volunteers to put up posters, give away flyers etc.

Besides, the ORF also favours the big parties in their formats: For example, their so-called "Elephant Debate" on Thursday night during primetime will only include SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens and NEOS), while minor parties only get to debate on Sunday at 11am (where nobody watches and is eating dinner).

Therefore EA will have problems getting anywhere near the 4% threshold, not to mention that they will need about 4.7%-5.3% to actually get a seat in the EP, due to our 18 seats and the D'Hondt method.

[sirius3100]

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

In some polls NEOS isn't far away from a third seat. So EA getting one seat may hurt NEOS.

Just lately, Neos has been dropping quite a bit and are nowhere near this third seat anymore.

I know. That's why I wrote "in some polls". The sample sizes in polls are way to low to estimate the numbers to more than 1-2% accuracy anway. So any apparent small short term trends may just be statistical fluctuations.
NEOS also is a pretty new party and never before run at the EU elections, so I'm not sure if the pollsters already know how to interpret the raw data they got from the polling.

[Tender Branson]

Using the current polls, the D'Hondt calculator shows that ÖVP and SPÖ would get 5 seats each, FPÖ 4 and Greens and NEOS 2 each.

If either NEOS or Greens drop to around 10% or lower, their 2nd seat is in danger - especially if EA manages to get to 4.7% or more.

If NEOS and Greens remain at around 12-13% and EA still manages 4.7% or more, EA would likely get their seat from whoever comes in 2nd in the election (so, either ÖVP or SPÖ).

[Diouf]

Danish poll by Megafon for TV2 and Politiken

Unified Patent Court Referendum
65.4 % yes
34.6 % no

The no-side will probably increase further, but it looks like it won't be really close.

Liberals 24.2 % 3 seats
DF 21.5 % 3 
Social Democrats 21.1 % 3
People's Movement against the EU 9.4 % 1
Social Liberals 7.5 % 1
SF 6.2 % 1
Conservatives 6.1 % 1
Liberal Alliance 2.6 % 0

A quite low result for DF compared to the average of 27 %. The polls have tended towards all of the three small parties in the electoral alliances, Social Liberals, SF, and Conservatives, getting a seat but it's still by a very narrow margin.

The expected turnout is 56 %. In 2009, it was 59.5 %, but it was higher due to the referendum on the royal succession rules. Between 1979 and 2004, the turnout was between 46.2 % and 52.9 %.

[Jens]

N-VA will not join ECR if True Finns and DF are included. One of their main policy points is that they disassociate themselves with these groups entirely.

N-VA have not been officially kicked out of the greens yet. Just the head of lists of the two Green parties in Belgium have both said that they would find it ''uncomfortable'' having the N-VA in the same grouping.

I think the N-VA are waiting to see what CiU do. They are almost like for like in every aspect.

From what I hear from the Danish EGP-people, the thing is that the current N-VA MEP is quite moderate, but that is not the case with the comming MEP's - so N-VA politically will also distance itself from Greens-EFA

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html

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in case anyone here was considering voting for these people.

[Cassius]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10839448/My-rivals-should-be-hanged-for-treason-says-Ukip-candidate.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

in case anyone here was considering voting for these people.

So, the man has a few drinks and goes on a big paranoid, hyperbolic, ultra-nationalist, anti-masonic, anti-Papist rant... that's what UKIP is all about. So, despite what one (ok, maybe a couple of dozen) candidate said, I'm still voting for them...

[Tender Branson]

I decided to do some election poster-tagging and flyering for "Europa Anders" ("A different Europe") this week, mostly in my district.

In Saalfelden and Zell am See (which in EP elections are SPÖ and former Martin strongholds), I will put a ton of "Social Democrats vote differently" posters up.

It's probably a bit too late already and it won't influence many people, but maybe some late-deciders.

EA is the Austrian leftist Tsipras affiliate.

 

 

They currently are at 2-3% in the polls, so they need every help they can get ...

(Greens and NEOS have their 2 seats safely anyway)

...

Got about 100 of these posters today. Time to put them up, because it's late anyway already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

[YL]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But this isn't a national election (and neither was 1989).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

Bit've a perfect storm for them I guess. The Alliance being in free fall, MT on the way out, poll tax, protest vote and Chernobyl only being a few years before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The environment became a major political issue for the first time in the 1980s (even before Chernobyl) and none of the mainstream parties had much to say on the matter. European elections are meaningless mickey mouse elections. The centre parties were in a mess and not able to pick up protest votes, and...

[Tender Branson]

1 day before voting starts in the UK and Netherlands, the site "PollWatch2014" is out with their final prediction:

EPP on the verge of victory

by Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham

We forecast that the European People’s Party will hold on as the largest party in the European Parliament.  The final set of EP election polls from across Europe over this last weekend suggest that the EPP will emerge as the largest group with 217 seats (29 per cent), 16 seats ahead of the Socialists and Democrats with 201 seats (27 per cent).

While we expect the EPP to lose over 40 seats compared to 2009, over the course of this election campaign the EPP member parties have consolidated their position in many countries, in particular in Poland, Hungary, and Germany.  In contrast, while we expect S&D to make some gains since 2009, over the course of the campaign many of its parties have slipped back.  This has particularly been the case in France, the UK, Poland, and Hungary. Meanwhile, support for anti-European parties on the populist right has risen in northern Europe, especially in the UK, France and Denmark, while support for radical left parties has risen in countries that have suffered economic downturn, particularly in Greece, Spain and Ireland.

But, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion.  Taking into account the margins of error in the latest polls, and on the basis of 1000 simulations of what might happen, there still remains a 15% probability that S&D will be larger than the EPP.

Meanwhile, our final prediction is that ALDE will remain the third largest group, just ahead of GUE in fourth, with G/EFA in fifth, ECR sixth and EFD seventh.  Here is the summary table of our final forecast for each member state compared to the current make-up of the EP.

A final caveat is that these numbers do not take account of potential party switches between groups or of which groups the currently non-attached parties will eventually join – in particular where the 18-20 MEPs from Italy’s 5 Star Movement will sit.  For a final prediction taking these potential changes into account see the latest blog from the VoteWatch Europe team.

Whether looking at our final forecast based on current group membership or the potential shifts in group membership, the main trend overall will be a dramatic polarisation of the Parliament.  There will be a significant increase in the proportion of MEPs on the right of the EPP, from approximately 16% in the current Parliament to 22% in the new one, as well as a slight increase in the proportion of MEPs on the left of S&D, from 12% to 13%.

Put another way, there will be a “squeezed middle”, with the three largest groups (EPP, S&D, ALDE) down from 72% of MEPs to only 65%.  This will force EPP and S&D to work together to get anything done, since neither an EPP-led coalition without S&D nor an S&D-led coalition without EPP is likely to command a majority.

So, expect a “grand coalition” on most big issues, starting with the choice of the Commission President.  On this front, Jean-Claude Juncker is now in poll position heading into the election.

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/pollsblog

Country map:

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls

[Enno von Loewenstern]

http://news.electio2014.eu/en/what-groups-will-form-in-the-new-ep-votewatch-europe-analysis-update/

What groups will form in the new EP? VoteWatch Europe analysis (UPDATE)

by Simon Hix, Doru Frantescu, Joan Manuel Lanfranco Pari and Michiel van Hulten[1]

 

With one day to go until voting starts, today’s PollWatch2014 prediction has EPP on the verge of victory: 217 to 201 for S&D. The updated PollWatch2014 summary tables can be found here. Based on today’s PollWatch2014 prediction the VoteWatch Europe team has considered what might happen in terms of the changing make-up of the political groups after the elections. This is by definition a speculative exercise as not all political parties have made their intentions known.

Most significantly we expect a new group to form – the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF), from the transnational party with that name – probably comprising FN from France, PVV from the Netherlands, FPÖ from Austria, VB from Belgium, LN from Italy, SNS from Slovakia, and SD from Sweden. It takes at least 25 MEPs from 7 countries to form a new group – we think EAF will reach that threshold.

ANO from the Czech Republic is very likely to join ALDE. UPyD from Spain might also fit more comfortably in ALDE than in the NI (non-attached). Despite the poor voting record match, we think N-VA from Belgium could join ECR, as some media have been speculating, partly because the alternatives are even harder to envisage. DFP from Denmark and Perussuomalaiset from Finland could also join ECR, but for now we assume that they will remain in EFD.

On the other hand, given their growing Euroscepticism, M5S from Italy is more likely to join Nigel Farage in EFD than sit with the more pro-European Greens/EFA. The politically cohesive Greens/EFA group may also not welcome such a large maverick contingent among their ranks, and as the largest delegation, M5S would oust the German Greens from their leading role.

The overall parliament would then look like this:

New EP with EAF 20 May

As for other parties labelled as ‘non-attached’ in PollWatch2014 forecasts, we assume the German Pirates could join the GUE-NGL group (as the Austrian Pirates run together with the Communist Party of Austria in the electoral Alliance Europa Anders). The ALDE group could also receive new members from the German Freie Wähler and Greek To Potami. Other parties joining the EFD group could be the Polish Kongres Nowej Prawicy and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

Compared to the outgoing Parliament, the new Parliament would be more polarised: with more MEPs on the radical left and on the right of the EPP. In this scenario the three potential groups to the right of EPP would have enough MEPs from a sufficient number of member states to form. EFD could emerge as the fourth largest group, GUE-NGL as fifth, ECR sixth, Greens/EFA seventh, and the new EAF group  in eighth place. This is all speculation of course. A lot of tough bargaining between parties and their prospective groups will follow the European elections. We may not know the final composition of the groups until the last week of June.

[afleitch]

The environment became a major political issue for the first time in the 1980s (even before Chernobyl) and none of the mainstream parties had much to say on the matter. European elections are meaningless mickey mouse elections. The centre parties were in a mess and not able to pick up protest votes, and...

That and the fact the Lib Dems were still the SLD at that time. There was little conscious awareness of them and in many ways, there wasn't until the 'close' campaign in '92.

The only thing this election might be good for is telling us where UKIP voters are. Problem is the patterns for 2004 don't tell us (especially where Kilroy stood) and neither really do the votes in 2009. But it might be helpful for those who want to know where they might win take the Lib Dem's place as the fairly distant second against a Tory duffer in East Anglia.