2004 Democratic Primary

[DarthKosh]

Or you could ask Clinton, who raised taxes on the wealthy in 1993, which of course doomed his chances of reelection....

Raising taxes on the wealthy wouldn't be a big political problem. Dean and Gephardt both want to raise taxes on the middle class, which could be harmful to them.

Not a big problem?  The Dems lost both houses after that.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Productivity boomed in 3Q
 
Government's measure of output per worker hour revised to fastest pace in 20 years.

Nonfarm business productivity, or worker output per hour, rose at an upwardly revised 9.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the strongest surge since the second quarter of 1983, the Labor Department said.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/03/news/economy/productivity.reut/index.htm

[Nym90]

I agree that raising taxes on the poor would be an even worse idea.

[John]

Ohio will Stay GOP as the Rest of the States But Bush Might Pick up Washighton Oregon & Minnestoa & Iowa

[Flying Dog]

Ohio will Stay GOP as the Rest of the States But Bush Might Pick up Washighton Oregon & Minnestoa & Iowa

wASHington is dem country as of now and i think it whould stay that way till 04 and beyond

[DarthKosh]

Ohio will Stay GOP as the Rest of the States But Bush Might Pick up Washighton Oregon & Minnestoa & Iowa

wASHington is dem country as of now and i think it whould stay that way till 04 and beyond

That all depends on who is the Dem nom.

[Flying Dog]

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the major candidates ,dean,gep,clark,edwards,kerry whould win washington

[DarthKosh]

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the major candidates ,dean,gep,clark,edwards,kerry whould win washington

Dean could turn off swing voters.

[Flying Dog]

so could of gore

[DarthKosh]

so could of gore

Gore was not campaign as far left and was as angry as Dean is.

[Flying Dog]

But they dont have VERY many differences

[Ben.]

Based on the 2000 contest and the current circumstances in most states by the summer (i.e the democratic convention) this is how I see the states looking. Dean I would say will very probably be the Democratic nominee with Clarke as his running mate. Dean will do poorly in many southern states…but in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia next to Gephardt he is best placed to exploit traditional blue collar democratic support amongst Union members and those states which went narrowly to Gore should still go to Dean as the Nader vote will almost certainly go to him in a big way.

The Lean Democratic States are going to be easier to win for the republicans than the lean republican states however I stick by my predictions.      


Alabama (9 EV) – Solid Republican    
Alaska  (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Arizona (10 EV) – Lean Republican
Arkansas (6 EV) – Lean Republican
California (55 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Colorado (9 EV) – Lean Republican    
Connecticut (7 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Delaware (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
D.C. (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Florida (27 EV) – Lean Republican    
Georgia (15 EV) – Solid Republican    
Hawaii (4 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Idaho (4 EV) – Solid Republican    
Illinois (21 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Indiana (11 EV) – Solid Republican    
Iowa (7 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Kansas (6 EV) – Solid Republican  
Kentucky (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
Louisiana (9 EV) – Solid Republican  
Maine (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Maryland (10 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Massachusetts (12 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Michigan (17 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Minnesota (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Mississippi (6 EV) – Solid Republican    
Missouri (11 EV) – Lean Republican  
Montana (3 EV) – Lean Republican    
Nebraska (5 EV) – Solid Republican    
Nevada (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Hampshire (4 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Jersey (15 EV) – Solid Democratic      
New Mexico (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New York (31 EV) – SOLID Democratic  
North Carolina (15 EV) – Lean Republican    
North Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Ohio (20 EV) – Lean Republican    
Oklahoma (7 EV) – Solid Republican  
Oregon (7 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Pennsylvania (21 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Rhode Island (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
South Carolina (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
South Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Tennessee (11 EV) – Lean Republican    
Texas (34 EV) – Solid Republican  
Utah (5 EV) – Solid Republican  
Vermont (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Virginia (13 EV) – Solid Republican    
Washington (11 EV) – Lean Democratic    
West Virginia (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wisconsin (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wyoming (3 EV) – Solid Republican  

[Demrepdan]

Gore was not campaign as far left and was as angry as Dean is.

I thought a lot of people thought Gore was "angry". Look at what he did during the debates. All the sighing and eye rolling. Dean hasn't really shown an "angry side" as much as many think.

[dazzleman]

Ben, I think that your predictions are overly generous to the Democrats, but only time will tell.

If Dean is the Democratic nominee, I think that Bush will carry all of the states that he won in 2000, plus pick up, potentially, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and New Mexico.  Depending upon the political climate leading up the election, the next tier for him to crack would be Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington and California.  I think the least likely states for Bush are New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

Overall, I would generally expect Dean to perform about as well as Dukakis in 1988, although not with exactly the same state alignment.

Gephardt would be more of a problem for Bush, since he has quasi-southern roots, and could possibly pick up some states that Bush won in 2000, such as Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio, plus damage Bush's chances of picking up some of the midwestern states that he may need, such as Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota.

Overall, out of the current sorry pack of Democratic challengers, I think Gephardt has the best chance of beating Bush.

[emergingDmajority1]

That's why this "Gep aide intimidates unions" thing bothers me, we can't afford to let Dean pull away with it or we're toast.

I've lost faith in Kerry, I'm thinking he would probably do worse than Dean in 04, talk about a complete collapse....

[DarthKosh]

Gore was not campaign as far left and was as angry as Dean is.

I thought a lot of people thought Gore was "angry". Look at what he did during the debates. All the sighing and eye rolling. Dean hasn't really shown an "angry side" as much as many think.

Gore is a little kitten compared to Dean.

[Demrepdan]

Gore is a little kitten compared to Dean.

What has Dean done to appear so angry? I've seen him appear miffed a few times, usually after one of the other Democratic candidates bash him though. When has he appeared to be angry?

[StevenNick]

Ohio will Stay GOP as the Rest of the States But Bush Might Pick up Washighton Oregon & Minnestoa & Iowa

wASHington is dem country as of now and i think it whould stay that way till 04 and beyond

Washington isn't as solidly democratic as you might think.  Democrats won the Governorship here the last two elections (1996, 2000) with a relatively moderate candidate running against incredibly weak republican.

Since September 11, Republicans have gone from a five point disadvantage in voter registration to a one point advantage.  Republicans control the state senate (albeit by the thinnest of margins) and Democrats only control the state house by a few votes.  Going into the 2004 election we have a solid, moderate candidate for Governor and a solid candidate for Senate.  Democrats running for Governor (now an empty seat) will face a bloody primary battle as Republicans rally around Rossi (the main republican candidate).  The democratic candidates are all further left than the current governor.

Although Bush is unpopular in the more urban areas of Western Washington, he's not unpopular in general.  I can't say that Washington is going to be solid Bush country in '04, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win the state.  And I also wouldn't be surprised if he carried Rossi and Nethercutt (candidates for governor and senator, respectively) along with him.

[DarthKosh]

Gore is a little kitten compared to Dean.

What has Dean done to appear so angry? I've seen him appear miffed a few times, usually after one of the other Democratic candidates bash him though. When has he appeared to be angry?

I haven't yet heard say anythin postive.  All he says is that the country is going to hell in a hand basket.

[Ben.]

Darth: Nothing positive? Dean in Hardball came across as relaxed, well informed and personable he did dig into Bush’s polices but 75% of the time he outlined his own views and beliefs with out referance to W. The lack of digs at Bush could partly be explained because he was projecting himself to the American electorate rather than the Democratic grassroots any primary candidate has to appeal to…but in terms of Dean being the “angry candidate” his attacks on Bush certainly where an important part of his campaign early on but these days he reserves them for occasional talks with activist while with undecided voters and independents he is a more pleasant laidback but no less passionate candidate.

“I started this campaign for the presidency with the simple notion that America can be better. I had virtually no staff and no money, but I wanted to talk about health care. I wanted to talk about early childhood development.  And I wanted to talk about fiscal responsibility and the importance of balancing the budget."

I offered people a campaign in which they could participate, and they have done so -- beyond anything we imagined. This campaign no longer is mine; it belongs to the people who are building it.”

- Howard Dean, Houston/ Texas:  November 18, 2003
 
“To me, health care isn't simply a policy issue. It's a moral imperative. Here, in the richest, most advanced country in the world in the 21st century, it's simply wrong for a sick child to go without seeing a doctor because her parents can't afford it.

Wrong for a woman to find out she has late stage breast cancer, because she couldn't afford a mammogram.

Wrong for elderly people to be choosing between prescriptions and food.

-Howard Dean, Columbia University, May 13, 2003

“This campaign is about more than one political office. It is about putting the power of the people to work for change. It is about giving people a reason to get involved, to care about their community, to get active, and out there, and vote!

I am running for President because it is time to rebuild the American community, reclaim our democratic heritage and restore our country to its rightful place as a moral leader among the nations of the world.

And I am running for President because it's time that we stood up to this President, to the Republican Party, to their radical conservative agenda, and forced them out of office.”

-Howard Dean, Des Moines, IA (July 30, 2003)

[jravnsbo]

yeah real positive, sought to get deferred in coming into doctor's office for draft; won't release gov's papers, wants gay marriage /civil unions=same thing; wants to repeal all the bush tax cuts-which are tax INCREASES even on the middle class; he got rattled by Matthews and asked him in a reactionary mode; "Well why should workers be allowed to work where they want without joining a union?"  

BAM- you never ask an open ended WHY question you don't know what the answer will be, in any debate style-

Matthews came back because this is America and people should be allowed to work where they want; The liberal leaning Harvard crowd rorared with applause.

Also he wants to break up companies like GE and Fox--while admitting he didn't want to name specific companies the plan is still there and he has publicly said before he wants to reregulate companies and put more restrictions on them.  Yeah that'll spur growth and productivity. (sarcastic)

Yeah real positive if that is the kind of person you want as president and policies of more taxes, more regulation.

[Nym90]

Dean wants to break up GE and Fox? I'd like to see the specific quotes on those.
It depends on what kind of regulations he is proposing, but regulations could definitely make the market place fairer for small businesses and be very beneficial to consumers. Yes, regulations usually hurt the pure bottom line of the corporations in question but we have lots of regulations on corporations designed to create a fairer and thus freer market for all. Corporate monopolies, collusion and the like are some of the biggest threats to a free market.

[jravnsbo]

No as I said he was peppered on GE and Fox and he backed off from them while acknowledging they could be targeted he said while he didn't want to name any specifically he definately though tthey should be more heavily regulated , on Hardball Monday.

[Ben.]

Dean suggested that like Microsoft, Murdoch and GE have an unfair dominance over the market and this is unfair. I am currently studying in the UK and here Murdoch runs a number of papers and now wants to buy a TV channel and most of the country is up in arms about how this will give him undue influence.

In the US the media market is owned by a small number of mostly conservative men…in the book “two cheers for Democracy” E.M.Forster said the second cheer was because Democracy permitted diversity in my view with likes of Murdoch there is no diversity of opinion and what Dean hopes is that through regulation of the media business the power of single corporations could be reduced and that rather than a limited narrow number of sources of news and opinion that might be many.

Personally I though Dean’s Hardball performance was very good, relaxed, well informed and attentive. Not the stiff and awkward Howard Dean who often appeared on TV earlier in the year.

[agcatter]

I also thought Dean looked rether relaxed on Hardball.  He answered every question honestly and didn't pull any punches.

I've changed my mind.  Democrats SHOULD nominate this man.