Canadian by-elections, 2013

[lilTommy]

Giambrone as the NDP candidate will definitely bring some needed media attention to the NDPs campaign in SG, I would say most of it will be positive or neutral as the media loves scandals so they wont pass this up.

Also, not everyone is the NDP believes Giambrone should have won. I read a fellow New Democrats post about him that was not pleasant. Calling him an opportunist running for his own self gain rather then the parties etc, etc. So he definitely is risky but in SG the NDP needs to take risks. Equally in OS, Funiciello, while not being a risky candidate took a personal risk running in a long-shot-at-best kind of riding.

Oh did anyone else read this
http://beaconnews.ca/blog/2013/07/christy-clark-getting-serious-about-her-westside-kelowna-by-election/
... looks like in the Westside-Kelwona by-election Clark is losing a straw poll... 50%ndp 30%bcl 20%bcc
now thats just a online newspaper poll but i would suspect that paper to NOT be a leftist bastion, small town papers generally aren't. So that has to scare Clark to some degree. Even though we all know not to really put too much trust in polls But by-elctions are not generally elections and we have seen the NDP win ridings (Hope-Chilliwack) that they could not win/hold at a general election

[Hatman 🍁]

Vic Toews to resign as MP tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

[DC Al Fine]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

Indeed. Provencher & Toronto Centre ought to be snoozers. Any chance of Bourassa changing hands?

[RogueBeaver]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

Indeed. Provencher & Toronto Centre ought to be snoozers. Any chance of Bourassa changing hands?

Realistically, no, but I'd definitely like to see the swings.

[DL]

Provencher will be a snoozer - Tory candidates routinely get 80% of the vote there. Its "blue dog" country. Toronto Centre will NOT be a "snoozer". The Liberals will be favoured but the NDP will run a high profile candidate and the better the NDP does in the byelection, the better they set themselves up for winning the "new" Toronto Centre post-redistribution when the boundaries will be vastly more NDP friendly (ie: Rosedale gets lopped off)

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto Centre could be interesting. Probably moreso than Bourassa. But it screams "fools gold" for the NDP. Certainly would be worth really fighting for to set up for the new more NDP-friendly riding to come (as DL pointed out).

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours on Twitter about former hockey player and Green Party deputy leader Georges Larocque will be running in Bourassa.

[MaxQue]

Rumours on Twitter about former hockey player and Green Party deputy leader Georges Larocque will be running in Bourassa.

Laraque, not Larocque.
For Greens, I suppose?

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't a rumour.

[Krago]

Bourassa has the highest proportion of people of Haitian origin of any federal riding in Canada:

• Bourassa: 12.6%
• Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel: 9.6%
• Honoré-Mercier: 7.9%
• Alfred-Pellan: 5.2%

The Liberals may not be cheering M. Laraque's entry into the race.  Areas of Liberal strength match fairly closely to areas with the highest proportion of Haitians:

[adma]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

Though said "deeply blue seat" went Liberal in 1993 and even 1997--then again, that's when the Chretien Liberals still hels some Western-populist cachet.  (And it was an extremely polarized electorate: the evangelicals going ReformAlliance, the Metis communities going Liberal--nowadays, the Metis only go "less Conservative")

[Hatman 🍁]

Bourassa has the highest proportion of people of Haitian origin of any federal riding in Canada:

• Bourassa: 12.6%
• Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel: 9.6%
• Honoré-Mercier: 7.9%
• Alfred-Pellan: 5.2%

The Liberals may not be cheering M. Laraque's entry into the race.  Areas of Liberal strength match fairly closely to areas with the highest proportion of Haitians:

Is that by dissemination area? 2011 NHS data? I cant seem to find ethnic data by dissemination area, unless you paid for it?

[Khunanup]

Bourassa has the highest proportion of people of Haitian origin of any federal riding in Canada:

• Bourassa: 12.6%
• Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel: 9.6%
• Honoré-Mercier: 7.9%
• Alfred-Pellan: 5.2%

The Liberals may not be cheering M. Laraque's entry into the race.  Areas of Liberal strength match fairly closely to areas with the highest proportion of Haitians:

Apart from when it doesn't...

The NDP bigging up of the riding looks like pure ramping from here. Very uninteresting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is the Westside-Kelowna by-election.

Here is my blog entry: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/07/westside-kelowna-by-election-today.html

[MaxQue]

Hopefully NDP will give me a birthday gift and have a good result tonight.
Already than they woke me today phoning for money...

[Hatman 🍁]

Happy birthday!

As you can see, the NDP have never held the riding.

Next time the NDP calls me for money, I'm going to tell them how much I felt snubbed by the Ottawa South campaign and that they wont be getting any money from me for a long time </whining>

[DL]

Happy birthday!

Next time the NDP calls me for money, I'm going to tell them how much I felt snubbed by the Ottawa South campaign and that they wont be getting any money from me for a long time </whining>

I find it very weird that they would "snub" you. Usually the NDP is so starved for volunteers they are begging people to get involved with the campaign. Why wouldn't they want to give local activists as much to do as possible?

[MaxQue]

As you can see, the NDP have never held the riding.

That's why I hope a good result, not a win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Happy birthday!

Next time the NDP calls me for money, I'm going to tell them how much I felt snubbed by the Ottawa South campaign and that they wont be getting any money from me for a long time </whining>

I find it very weird that they would "snub" you. Usually the NDP is so starved for volunteers they are begging people to get involved with the campaign. Why wouldn't they want to give local activists as much to do as possible?

I admit I'm being self important here, but it's not just me that was snubbed; it was the whole riding association. I'm sure they'd love it if I dropped by to do some menial task (which I'm not above doing), but I think my past work and knowledge of the riding could be put to better use (like it has in past campaigns).  So, I'll observe from a far, unless they need my expertise.

[RogueBeaver]

Turns out Rae hasn't actually resigned yet, he's now saying in 3 weeks so he can finish some constituency work. September or October call for all 3 in November/early December?

[Hatman 🍁]

Clark leads by 10 votes with 3 polls reporting

[Njall]

5/171 polls reporting, clark now has a 16 vote lead

[MaxQue]

Ugh, one of the independant is the expelled racist candidate of last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

10 polls in now, and Clark has jumped to a large lead (62-27%) early night?