Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Which is in line with Horwath's MO for the past 2 budgets. Rolling the dice on a snap election that could result in a Hudak government wouldn't exactly please NDP backers. 

[DL]

At some there will have to be an election and whenever that comes - a Hudak will be a possibility. Maybe the Ontario liberals are just such a damaged brand that they should just not bother contesting the next election and instead let the NDP under Horwath act as a bulwark against Hudakism

[Krago]

[RogueBeaver]

Giambrone interview.

Krago:

[Smid]

Read something on Facebook this morning, about the Liberal candidate and Wynne campaigning in Ottawa Centre yesterday, instead of Ottawa South?

[RogueBeaver]

I didn't hear that- maybe Hatman did. Certainly her Twitter feed said she was in Ottawa South.

[Smid]

Apparently a farmer's market or something. I suspect it was probably a large market, close to the boundary, where a fair number of Ottawa South constituents may visit and it was seen as beneficial to campaign there, I don't know. If that's the case, it may just be spin.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think I saw something on Twitter. It may have been the Farmer's Market at Brewer Park, which we went to a few weeks ago. I think they do it every Sunday. Anyways, it is indeed right on the border, literally across the bridge from the riding in the neighbourhood of OLD Ottawa South.

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed it was in Brewer Park (the Ottawa Sun can't even get the Park's name right): http://www.ottawasun.com/2013/07/28/john-fraser-not-worried-about-polls

When we went, the place was full of your typically yuppies. I imagine many support the Liberals or are Dewar - Naqvi voters. Many are probably Greens as well. We saw Capital Ward councillor David Chernushenko who is a former Green candidate in Ottawa Centre, and we went my partner's parents who are Green supporters themselves.

[RogueBeaver]

Freeland's manifesto.

McGuinty's influence in Ottawa South.

[RogueBeaver]

PCs have found interesting emails from senior Grits related to gas plants and the Bentley contempt motion.

[Hatman 🍁]

McGuinty's influence in Ottawa South.

Hmm, that's a good point. The McGuinty family is so huge that everyone here knows at least someone who knows someone in the clan. I for one had a class with Dalton's son Liam in university. And my father has been to the McGuinty household to fix an appliance and got to meet the First Lady of Ontario in the process.

[RogueBeaver]

DL was right: Smitherman's not running.

[lilTommy]

Looks like the NDP knows who the competition is (in London West):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_miw4veosk&feature=youtu.be

Going after the PCs and Hudak... no mention of the Liberals at all.
London West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore and probably Scarborough-Guildwood will be the three to watch on thursday.

[adma]

Given that the Tories are reportedly in the lead in Ottawa South, I wouldn't rule that out as "one to watch", either.

Interesting to think that the least "watchworthy" race is the one which is by far most likely to switch (Windsor-Tecumseh)

[RogueBeaver]

Freeland was all but appointed, to no one's surprise. Smitherman was told that Freeland was Trudeau's choice, plus his team (Butts especially) were gushing about her on Twitter. Like mentor, like protégé, as when the "fundamental right" of abortion collided with free votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Given that the Tories are reportedly in the lead in Ottawa South, I wouldn't rule that out as "one to watch", either.

Interesting to think that the least "watchworthy" race is the one which is by far most likely to switch (Windsor-Tecumseh)

Races to watch in order of interest:

1) London West (3 way? or Coran's epic fail?)
2) Ottawa South (Tory surprise in Lib stronghold)
3) Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Ford friends do battle)
4) Scarborough-Guildwood (only riding to stay red?)
5) Windsor-Tecumseh (NDP sure bet?)

[RogueBeaver]

OLP told the Globe they expect a PC-NDP battle in London West, neither party believes Forum for Ottawa South, conceded Windsor and admitted Holyday has the edge in Etobicoke. So they could lose 4 or all 5. Grits think Giambrone might pull enough votes to give Kirupa the win.

[DL]

A strong showing by Giambrone actually HELPS the Liberals in Scarborough-Guildwood, he siphons off anti-government votes that would otherwise go PC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I do find a PC 14-point victory tomorrow hard to believe, I am getting the sense of a PC victory. People just want to get rid of the Liberals. But come the general, they'll probably vote them back in.

[lilTommy]

A strong showing by Giambrone actually HELPS the Liberals in Scarborough-Guildwood, he siphons off anti-government votes that would otherwise go PC.

I'd also expect GIambrone to siphon progressive-disgruntled Liberals who might see that the NDP and the Liberals as being pretty similar (especially based on the last budget), but the NDP are not tainted by scandal so to send the gov't a message they will switch Lib-NDP. Don't know how many that might be. Low voter turnout usually helps opposition no?
Also Ford has been very active campaigning with both Holyday and Kuripa (is that right?) in SG. This is odd, since if i remember this is the first time a TO mayor has campaigned during any prov/fed election. No?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Ford really an asset? You'd think he'd be a liability.

[lilTommy]

Is Ford really an asset? You'd think he'd be a liability.

In Etobioke and Scarborough, ya i'd say it' still an asset. Those areas are pretty much the base of his support. Ford won all the wards in both areas; now his support has dropped but from what i can tell his base is still strong (i think 30%+ at least)

[RogueBeaver]

Forgot to post this yesterday, but Grenier had a post on Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

Has anyone heard of Campaign Research before?