Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Ha. That Tory-Tory hate is still there. Lovely.

[RogueBeaver]

Wha? Harper and Dunderdale have a good relationship- she publicly endorsed him 2 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

New Abacus Labrador poll: LPC 63, CPC 20, NDP 17.

[Benj]

That's more than 100%?

[RogueBeaver]

That's more than 100%?

Fixed: 63-20-17. Looks like Yvonne Jones will be Labrador's next MP.

[DC Al Fine]

That's more than 100%?

Fixed: 63-20-17. Looks like Yvonne Jones will be Labrador's next MP.

Not even close.

[Hatman 🍁]

Shucks. Wonder if they weighted the aboriginals?

Looks like we're in third

[RogueBeaver]

Jones is anti-registry.

https://twitter.com/YvonneJJones/status/326097605148958721/photo/1

[MaxQue]

Jones is anti-registry.

https://twitter.com/YvonneJJones/status/326097605148958721/photo/1

Not really surprising in northern lands. My Bloc MP always voted with Conservatives to defund the registry, despite Bloc supporting registry.

[RogueBeaver]

Coderre will announce his mayoral run on May 17th, which of course opens up Bourassa.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/montreal/376521/mairie-annonce-de-coderre-le-17-mai

[DC Al Fine]

Leaning towards a Liberal hold, assuming we're all basking in the Trudeau afterglow.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Liberals should hold it though I'd be surprised if Dippers or Bloc didn't make a serious push.

[DL]

There are too many allophones in Bourassa for the BQ to have any chance, I suspect they will run a very perfuntory campaign there and get less than 10% of the vote.

[MaxQue]

There are too many allophones in Bourassa for the BQ to have any chance, I suspect they will run a very perfuntory campaign there and get less than 10% of the vote.

Bloc won it in 1993.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which was twenty years ago.

[DL]

The boundaries and the demographics of Bourassa have changed enormously since 1993 and on top of that in 1993 the NDP was non-existent in Quebec so the BQ was the only place to go if you were the least bit left of centre and there was all that Bouchard-mania that year etc...Now with the Marois government incredibly unpopular and with the BQ broke, issueless and leaderless i think you will see an Outremont-like situation where the BQ falls into single digits and most of the old BQ vote stays home or takes flight to the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

This by-election looks like it will be very important.

[DL]

If Coderre resigns his seat in May, I expect Harper to wait a full six months before calling the byelection so that it would happen AFTER the mayoral election likely in December...by then the dust from Justin-mania will likely have more than settled and who knows if the PQ will even be in power anymore.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

[MaxQue]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

No, he chose the day it would hidden under BC election news.

[DL]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

The PQ may not have a choice, the opposition parties may vote no-confidence and force and election later this year.

[MaxQue]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

The PQ may not have a choice, the opposition parties may vote no-confidence and force and election later this year.

Right now, it's not in CAQ interest, through.

[RogueBeaver]

New Forum Labrador poll: Jones 60, Penashue 29, Borlase 10.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2013/04/20130426-184029.html

[Qavvavak]

Just looking at the provincial results now, and the Innu were just as Tory friendly:

Combined results of Natuashish and Sheshatshiu

PC: 245 (75.85%)
NDP: 55 (17.0%)
Lib: 23 (7.1%)

Note the huge difference in turnout between the federal and provincial election.

Are the Innu the most Tory friendly Aboriginal group? And here I was thinking it might be the Inuit. Weird!

The Innu community is divided into two provincial ridings (for some reason)
Natuashish is in Torngat Mountains, a Liberal riding that is completely Inuit except for Natuashish. Only one of the Inuit communities (Hopedale) voted Tory. Hopedale also went Tory in the federal election.

Sheshatsiu is in Lake Melville, a Tory riding anyways.

Inuit and Innu are not Tory, they are just non-partisan because they voted Conservative who is Innu an aboriginal candidate than party. Like Nunavut always voted who is Inuit candidate since 1979. for example, in Nunavut Liberal Paul Okalik and Conservative Leona Aglukkaq are both Inuit are vote splitting, like in Nunavik between Cree NDP and Inuit Green and as well in Nunatsiavut Cons and Libs are Innu and Inuit-Metis all are vote splitting. They would preferred candidate is represented them.

[MaxQue]

like in Nunavik between Cree NDP and Inuit Green

The Inuit vote in Nunavik was split between Greens, NDP and Liberals. There is no Crees in proper Nunavik except in Whapmagoostui.