Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.

Well, I'm just doing some research now, and perhaps the NDP should give it a try. The riding appears to have a large urban section that is friendly to the party. Maybe they can be competitive with the right candidate. London West is the most conservative riding in London, so I figured it would be off limits. Maybe I'm wrong.

[MaxQue]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.

Well, I'm just doing some research now, and perhaps the NDP should give it a try. The riding appears to have a large urban section that is friendly to the party. Maybe they can be competitive with the right candidate. London West is the most conservative riding in London, so I figured it would be off limits. Maybe I'm wrong.

Well, it's a by-election, so it would be crazy to not try, and, with three parties, a pretty low percentage allow you to win. And yes, London West is mainly urban.

[King of Kensington]

Federally, if the NDP could get a star candidate in Toronto Centre, they'd have a chance to take it.  Someone like David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton.

Last intervention I heard from Miller on Canadian politics was his "sharing" of Joyce Murray's pro-cooperation video on his FB page.  So he still seems to be in "nonpartisan progressive" mode.

On the other hand, a Miller run in TC would really symbolize how the "progressive vote" is coalescing around the NDP.

(Also: it looks like there's one more campaign in the riding called "Rosedale" for most of its history, which makes it more of a challenge for the NDP).  

[MaxQue]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

[Hatman 🍁]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

No guarantee the provincial ridings will continue to match the federal ones.

[MaxQue]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

No guarantee the provincial ridings will continue to match the federal ones.

Sure, but that may be an hard sell to voters. Anyways, Ontario still needs redistricing, then. They can't continue to use the old map for years.

[adma]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Not *really*, all things considered--besides, as per my previous post, the no-hope myth re LW is itself the lingering legacy of past provincial suppression.  In that benchmark year for anti-Harris "strategic voting" selectivity, 1999, the NDP seriously aimed for 2 out of 3 London seats in 1999, and this was the odd one out.  (But keep in mind that even after all of that, they did better here than in K-W that year.  Also, just as w/K-W, the NDP would have won within these boundaries in 1990.)

What LW lacks is the big lunchbucket-belt sweep of polls that defines Fanshawe and the SE portion of LNC; it's more of a left-Lib/Red Tory/soft-socialist demo we're dealing with (which may explain the 1999 strategic decision to plump w/the Liberals here).  On the whole, recent NDP results here have been not terribly unlike what a "non-suppressed" pre-byelection K-W tally would have been.  And the "affluent parts" are no more of an impediment here than in K-W--or for that matter, LNC.

This is definitely the kind of seat that could easily go for a "Fife Democrat", under the right circumstances.

[King of Kensington]

London's reputation for being a small-"c" conservative city is kind of undeserved.

[King of Kensington]

I was wondering if Monte Kwinter was going to retire (and maybe Bernie Farber would run in his seat), but apparently not:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/01/24/monte_kwinter_becomes_oldest_serving_mpp_in_ontario_history_this_weekend.html

[mileslunn]

I suspect the NDP will take Duncan's riding.  As for London West, that is not exactly NDP friendly, but not hostile either.  In fact at the federal level, the results in London West have usually been almost bang on what the province wide average was.  Certainly the Eastern sections are friendly for the NDP, but the problem is the Western half is quite affluent and if the NDP gets clobbered badly enough them that could hurt them.  Think Toronto Centre which on the surface seems NDP friendly but the inclusion of Rosedale pretty much sinks their chances.

[lilTommy]

I think the NDP has the edge in Windsor-Tecumseh BUT, again the candidate will matter. Its a by-election and that alone gives the NDP some advantage (we have a great ability to rally and put resources into them) but I still think there will be effort to attract a relatively "star-like" candidate.

first poll of London West:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/02/13/liberals_in_dogfight_to_hold_chris_bentleys_london_seat.html
PC have slight lead, PC 34% OLP 30% NDP 28%
So, its not outside to consider the NDP could win. No candidates have been presented yet and that can change things. Also, Hudak is not well liked...
http://www.torontosun.com/2013/02/12/ndp-leader-andrea-horwath-makes-good-impression-on-ontarians-poll#disqus_thread
Its Andrea who tops the poll as having the most positive impression: 34%, Wynne 30% Hudak 23%!
Best Premier: Howath and Wynne are tied at 23% and Hudak is at 20%! (35% undicided)
Bad news for Hudak who should, if the PCs want to win London West, STAY AWAY! let it be candidate focused, where for the NDP it looks to be the opposite. If the NDP is lucky they might get a star candidate like KWs Catherine Fife and could take this seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

London West = definite pick up opportunity. Scratch everything I have said

[Holmes]

Now is the perfect opportunity for the NDP to take Windsor-Tecumseh. I think it's really now or never. As for Toronto-Centre, an NDP victory there might be an appropriate blow to a newly coronated Trudeau. On the other hand, it just might be what keeps the seat in Liberal hands.

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial stuff a jump ball. TO Centre Liberal hold.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Trudeau wins, then no way the NDP wins TC. However, I would recommend doing a huge campaign there nonetheless, because redistribution may create an NDP seat in the south, and it would be helpful for the next election's resources to fall back on a well orchestrated by-election campaign.

[lilTommy]

After the next federal, unless the province adopts the same ridings, were going to have some very different discussions when it comes to who wins what.

federal riding TCentre - NDP edge here, without Rosedale the riding is a a battle with advantage NDP.
provincial riding TCentre - Liberal hold due to Rosedale being included, If the PCs can eat away enough OLP vote, then maybe, maybe a squeaker NDP win

[Benj]

After the next federal, unless the province adopts the same ridings, were going to have some very different discussions when it comes to who wins what.

federal riding TCentre - NDP edge here, without Rosedale the riding is a a battle with advantage NDP.
provincial riding TCentre - Liberal hold due to Rosedale being included, If the PCs can eat away enough OLP vote, then maybe, maybe a squeaker NDP win

The federal by-election is on the old borders, so Rosedale will still be included.

[Hatman 🍁]

After the next federal, unless the province adopts the same ridings, were going to have some very different discussions when it comes to who wins what.

federal riding TCentre - NDP edge here, without Rosedale the riding is a a battle with advantage NDP.
provincial riding TCentre - Liberal hold due to Rosedale being included, If the PCs can eat away enough OLP vote, then maybe, maybe a squeaker NDP win

The federal by-election is on the old borders, so Rosedale will still be included.

Yes.  In fact at this point, the NDP might have a better shot at the riding provincially, just based on numbers (current provincial polling vs perceived federal polling with Trudeau as Lib leader). However, Horwath's NDP doesn't play as well to Toronto as say, Layton. I can definitely see Toronto Centre types being very friendly to Premier Wynne, unfortunately.

[LastVoter]

Can someone link me t o a list of towns that warrant their own riding or more in Ontario(except for Toronto suburbs)? I'm guessing majority of them vote NDP?

[Benj]

Can someone link me t o a list of towns that warrant their own riding or more in Ontario(except for Toronto suburbs)? I'm guessing majority of them vote NDP?

Off the top of my head... Ottawa, Hamilton, Oshawa, London, Kitchener and Windsor. And, no, they don't.

Ottawa is 5 Lib, 2 PC provincially; 2 Lib, 1 NDP, 4 Con federally.

Hamilton is 3 NDP, provincially and federally.

Oshawa is 2 Con/PC, provincially and federally.

London is 2 Lib, 1 NDP provincially; 1 Lib, 1 NDP, 1 Con federally.

Kitchener is 1 Lib, 1 NDP, 1 PC provincially (NDP won their seat from the PCs in a recent by-election); 3 Con federally.

Windsor is 2 Lib provincially, 2 NDP federally.

Edit: There are also the one-riding cities. Also mixed, though mostly Liberal provincially. Kingston and Guelph are Lib provincially and federally. Barrie is PC/Con provincially and federally. Niagara Falls and St. Catherines are Lib provincially, Con federally. Welland is NDP provincially and federally (the last three contain some areas outside the city in their ridings but dominate their respective ridings).

[Jimross187]

St. Catharines does not contain any area outside of the municipal boundaries of St. Catharines. The bare majority of the Welland riding is not within the city of Welland (Thorold, Port Colborne, Wainfleet, and a good chunk of St. Catharines are in the Welland riding). Cambridge is PC/CPC.

[adma]

Don't forget the provincial incarnations of Sudbury and Sault Ste Marie (both Lib, albeit barely in the former case)

[Benj]

Don't forget the provincial incarnations of Sudbury and Sault Ste Marie (both Lib, albeit barely in the former case)

Ah, true. Sudbury is 1 Lib, 1 NDP provincially, 2 NDP federally (counting Nickel Belt as a part, though only some of it is in Sudbury--same is true for Kitchener-Conestoga, Whitby-Oshawa, etc., of course). Sault Ste. Marie is 1 Lib provincially, 1 Con federally. (Sault Ste. Marie is not actually big enough for its own riding but gets its own anyway because it's in the North.)

Thanks for the correction on St. Catharines.

[DL]

Hamilton is 3 NDP, provincially and federally.

Oshawa is 2 Con/PC, provincially and federally.

London is 2 Lib, 1 NDP provincially; 1 Lib, 1 NDP, 1 Con federally.

Correction federally London is 1 NDP and 2 Conservative - the libs lost London North Centre in 2011

[LastVoter]

What about Thunder Bay? Not large enough for its own riding?