Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[njwes]

That seems logical, though if that's the case it's surprising to me that the SPÖ doesn't draw more of that vote than the FPÖ

[Diouf]

The fascists do better here because here they have Herbert Kickl, who is a mix of a modern-day Joseph Goebbels and Karl Rove/David Axelrod/David Plouffe:

Of course. No one really agrees with those anti-immigration, anti-globalization and/or eurosceptic parties. There are no real problems which could make people vote for these parties. It is just because they have some good marketing and a rhetorically good speaker...

That's not what I meant: Of course the anti-xyz-sentiment is there, but if the FPÖ didn't have Kickl as mastermind, the FPÖ would be stuck at their base 15%.

It just seems disingenious and not relevant to compare to it to the situation in Greece, at least the way the article does it. Golden Dawn is far more extreme than anything in Austria, and it's not like Golden Dawn is the only party of protest in Greece. People voting for the ANEL, the Communists, some parts of Syriza and some of the smaller parties are also largely doing it from an anti-xyz sentiment.

[Tender Branson]

BZÖ press conference in 10 minutes.

BZÖ-leader Josef Bucher speaking ...

A possible resignation ?

[Tender Branson]

Breaking: Josef Bucher says he takes responsibility for the defeat and steps down as BZÖ-leader plus withdraws completely from politics.

[Tender Branson]

He says that he asked Jörg Haider's sister Ursula Haubner (see my post above) to "re-organize" the party ...

[Tender Branson]

Markus Fauland now speaking.

He's the BZÖ coordinator and was responsible for the election campaign.

He said he will also step down.

[Tender Branson]

Bucher says he will go back to the hotel managing business, where he came from when he started with politics 10 years ago.

[Tender Branson]

There's a really far-fetched outside chance that the SPÖ wins back Styria from the FPÖ when the remaining 31.000 absentee ballots are counted tomorrow.

As of right now, the result in Styria is this:

24.1% FPÖ - 173.530 votes
23.9% SPÖ - 171.855 votes

A difference of ca. 1700 votes.

If we assume that ca. 5.000 of the 31.000 absentee ballots tomorrow are from Styria, then the SPÖ needs to win ca. 50% of them and the FPÖ not more than 15%.

Then the SPÖ would win Styria. Of course this won't happen.

[ERvND]

Call for SPÖ to negotiate with FPÖ

As the ÖVP hesitates to enter coalition talks with the SPÖ, there are voices inside the party (not only the one cited in the article above) that call for talks between SPÖ and FPÖ.

It's highly unlikely there will be a red-blue coalition this time - there is heavy resistance within the SPÖ - but Faymann can use those thoughts to put pressure on the ÖVP.

Tactically, a SPÖ-FPÖ coalition wouldn't be a bad thing: The government would have to agree on some (popular) anti-migrant and anti-EU policies which Faymann could claim for himself, effectively stymying the FPÖ.

[njwes]

Does the FPO have a strong economic liberal wing that would cause conflict with the SPO? Or are they pretty much pro-welfare state (as long as the $ doesn't go to immigrants, of course)

[DC Al Fine]

Does the FPO have a strong economic liberal wing that would cause conflict with the SPO? Or are they pretty much pro-welfare state (as long as the $ doesn't go to immigrants, of course)

They used to but the the economic liberal wing broke off in the 1990's. Most of those voters are with Team Stronach, NEOS, or the BZO now.

[minionofmidas]

Does the FPO have a strong economic liberal wing that would cause conflict with the SPO? Or are they pretty much pro-welfare state (as long as the $ doesn't go to immigrants, of course)

They used to but the the economic liberal wing broke off in the 1990's. Most of those voters are with Team Stronach, NEOS, or the BZO now.

Make that NEOS (which is an indirect successor party) or the Greens. But that wasn't the economic liberal in the sense of "economically right wing as well" wing - that was the liberal wing full stop (the FPÖ having always been an uneasy coalition of what little of a liberal tradition there was in Austria and, to be blunt, the remnants of the NSDAP).
The answer to the question as posed is "they used to but they broke off in 2005 and formed the BZÖ".

[Tender Branson]

After some PMs, homelycooking and Sibboleth are so awesome that they'll do a few Austrian district maps with some scaling ...

Maybe even a town map with all 2400 towns/cities ...

[adma]

Maybe even a town map with all 2400 towns/cities ...

I'd like to know the result here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ing,_Austria

[Phooey--auto-censored.  But a lot of you might know which place I'm talking about]

[MaxQue]

Maybe even a town map with all 2400 towns/cities ...

I'd like to know the result here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ing,_Austria

[Phooey--auto-censored.  But a lot of you might know which place I'm talking about]

It's in Tarsdorf municipality.

ÖVP: 37,5%
FPÖ: 27,0%
SPÖ: 14,4%
GRÜNE: 9,7%
Stronach: 4,4%
BZÖ: 3,2%
NEOS: 1,7%
CPÖ: 1,1%
Pirates: 0,6%
KPÖ: 0,4%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe even a town map with all 2400 towns/cities ...

I'd like to know the result here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ing,_Austria

[Phooey--auto-censored.  But a lot of you might know which place I'm talking about]

Here's a link that works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuсking,_Austria

[Tender Branson]

The FINAL results of the election (Sunday precinct votes + postal votes + absentee votes):

26.8%  [-2.5%] SPÖ - 52 seats (-5)
24.0%  [-2.0%] ÖVP - 47 seats (-4)
20.5% [+3.0%] FPÖ - 40 seats (+6)
12.4% [+2.0%] Greens - 24 seats (+4)
  5.7% [+5.7%] Team Stronach  - 11 seats (+11)
  5.0% [+5.0%] NEOS - 9 seats (+9)
  3.5%  [-7.2%] BZÖ  - 0 seats (-21)
  1.0% [+0.2%] KPÖ
  0.8% [+0.8%] Pirate Party
  0.1%  [-0.5%] CPÖ
  0.1% [+0.1%] The Change

Turnout: 74.9% (-3.9%)

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

...

The OFFICIAL final result will be released by the Ministry of Interior on Oct. 16, because there's a 2 week formal objection period.

But because there are no irregularities or vote fraud in Austria, the results won't change anymore.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The OFFICIAL final result will be released by the Ministry of Interior on Oct. 16, because there's a 2 week formal objection period.

But because there are no irregularities or vote fraud in Austria, the results won't change anymore.

Just goes to show the benefits of voter ID.

[Tender Branson]

Gerald Grosz will be the new leader of the BZÖ:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/nrwahl2013/1460576/Grosz-wird-BZOeChef-Stadler-und-Petzner-muessen-gehen

Grosz is the current Styrian BZÖ-leader and a homosexual. He is in a registered Civil Union with his partner and therefore one of the first politicians from the Far-Right that is openly gay.

Nonetheless, I see him only as the bankruptcy manager of the BZÖ in the next years ...

[Tender Branson]

So, how accurate was the first ORF/SORA projection at 5pm ?

SPÖ: underestimated by 0.4
ÖVP: underestimated by 0.2
FPÖ: overestimated by 1.9
Greens: underestimated by 1.2
TS: overestimated by 0.3
NEOS: underestimated by 0.3
BZÖ: overestimated by 0.2

The margin of error of the 1st projection was +/- 1.9%, so everything was withing that margin.

The fact that the FPÖ was so strong and the Greens so weak in the first one, was because it was based on small rural communities counted already. And those came from Styria too, where the FPÖ did very well in these small towns because of the forced city merger issue by SPÖVP.

You can watch the full ORF election day coverage here + 1st projection:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=froCB4Q_o2A

[Tender Branson]

The OFFICIAL final result will be released by the Ministry of Interior on Oct. 16, because there's a 2 week formal objection period.

But because there are no irregularities or vote fraud in Austria, the results won't change anymore.

Just goes to show the benefits of voter ID.

Not only that.

Voter ID alone is no guarantee that there are no voter irregularities. The whole election system must be organized on a high level.

For example the Central Residence Registry (ZMR) allows the election authorities to screen out all eligible voters aged 16+ and leave out younger ones and foreigners. Then, election info cards are sent to all voters with the address of your precinct on, how long the precinct is open and how you can request an absentee ballot.

Then you need to guarantee that every voter is assigned to only 1 precinct. A voter who wants to vote at another precinct in the country can only do so if this voter has requested an absentee ballot and can only vote in this "foreign" precinct with that absentee ballot.

A voter from Salzburg for example will never be allowed to vote in a Vienna precinct if he doesn't have his absentee ballot with him.

A voter who has already voted by postal ballot will also not be able to vote at his original home precinct, because the list at the local election commission says: "this voter has already requested an absentee ballot".

Of course a voter can still vote at his own precinct with an absentee ballot, you just have to take that absentee ballot with you to your voting precinct.

Voter ID is just another ingredient to make sure there are no errors in the election.

[Tender Branson]

1st Gallup/Ö24 poll after the election:



Which coalition do Austrians prefer now ?



Funny: When asked if Austrians prefer another "Grand Coalition" or something "new", something "new" leads with 53%, while the GC gets only 32%.

But when asked about actual coalitions, the GC comes out as the most preferred option.

Link

[Tender Branson]

The 6 Austrian parties will get ca. 310 Mio. € over the next 5 years in public funding, or 62 Mio. € each year.

The funding will go to the party, the parliamentary club and the party academy.

Here's the chart:



http://derstandard.at/1379293048659/Neos-erhalten-fast-fuenf-Millionen-Euro-Parteienfoerderung

The BZÖ got 7 Mio. € this year, and will get nothing from 2014 on ...

[Tender Branson]

This is how bad the situation for the BZÖ really is:

This year, they will get 7 Mio. € in party funding (of which a lot is already spent on parliamentary work and the election campaign).

Next year: nothing.

Except the party funding from Carinthia, which is 0.5 Mio. € each year (and of which a lot is used on the state parliamentary staff as well and not for a campaign).

Considering this, what do we think will the chances for the BZÖ be in the next years ?

[peterould]

This is how bad the situation for the BZÖ really is:

This year, they will get 7 Mio. € in party funding (of which a lot is already spent on parliamentary work and the election campaign).

Next year: nothing.

Except the party funding from Carinthia, which is 0.5 Mio. € each year (and of which a lot is used on the state parliamentary staff as well and not for a campaign).

Considering this, what do we think will the chances for the BZÖ be in the next years ?

I can see no other option but a merger into the FPÖ.