Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Peter might be right:

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Probably the usual post election talk to gain more influence in another SPÖVP coalition.

Spindelegger is probably aiming for the influential Finance Minister post with these little games ...

[Tender Branson]

Because turnout dropped to a record low of ca. 75% (from 79% in 2008), the RFJ now demands mandatory voting with a penalty of 40€ that is enforced.

The RFJ is the youth organisation of the FPÖ.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm surprised the BZO got as many votes as they did. Exactly who does moderate fascism appeal to?

[Gustaf]

What astonishes me most about Austrian politics is the degree to which pensioners vote SPÖ. In Germany, it's quite the opposite: People over 60 have always voted CDU/CSU, but now we have reached a point where almost two thirds of them do.

This is factually wrong: The FG Wahlen exit polls showed the following results for voters over 60 (difference to all voters in brackets):

CDU/CSU:      49 (+7.5)
SPD               29 (+3.3)
FDP                 5 (--)
Linke               8 (-0.6)
Grüne             5 (-3.4)
AfD                 4 (-0.7)

As such, the overall age-related trends are similar in Austria and in Germany, though their extent (SPÖ strength with old voters, FPÖ strength with young voters) differs.

Why does this net to +6? Because younger voters vote so much for Pirates, NDP and other minor parties?

[minionofmidas]

What astonishes me most about Austrian politics is the degree to which pensioners vote SPÖ. In Germany, it's quite the opposite: People over 60 have always voted CDU/CSU, but now we have reached a point where almost two thirds of them do.

This is factually wrong: The FG Wahlen exit polls showed the following results for voters over 60 (difference to all voters in brackets):

CDU/CSU:      49 (+7.5)
SPD               29 (+3.3)
FDP                 5 (--)
Linke               8 (-0.6)
Grüne             5 (-3.4)
AfD                 4 (-0.7)

As such, the overall age-related trends are similar in Austria and in Germany, though their extent (SPÖ strength with old voters, FPÖ strength with young voters) differs.

Why does this net to +6? Because younger voters vote so much for Pirates, NDP and other minor parties?

Mostly that and he's comparing to the wrong set of figures; should have used the exit poll's results rather than the actual results.

CDU/CSU 49 (+6.5)
SPD 29 (+2.5)
FDP 5 (+0.5)
Greens 5 (-3.5)
Left 8 (0)
AfD 4 (-0.

Closer +5.

But yeah, it's mostly that no one over 60 votes for tiny parties that didn't exist when they were young. According to this exit poll, others are at 13% among under 30, 9% 30-45, 5% 45-60, and 0% over 60. That's a bit extreme and probably just plain wrong, but the general trend is normal.

[peterould]

Tender, have you got the equivalent pictures for the BZÖ when they realised they had bombed out of the Nationalrat?

:-)

There are not a lot, it seems nobody misses them:




...

Well, if they would have used the picture below and put it on their posters before the election, they might have gained the extra point that puts them above 4% ...

But too little, too late ...

Josef Bucher (BZÖ) has voted:

Aaaaahhhhhh........ And that's such a lovely Janker she's wearing as well. That picture's got to be worth 0.4% of votes alone.

[peterould]

Peter might be right:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably the usual post election talk to gain more influence in another SPÖVP coalition.

Spindelegger is probably aiming for the influential Finance Minister post with these little games ...

I think he's aiming a bit higher.... :-)

[Zanas]

Well the Neos people in the pictures above all look like people I would slap in the face, as I expected they would.

[ERvND]

I have a gut feeling we're going to end up with Spindelegger as Chancellor. You heard it here first....

:-)

Not really a secret that he'll try to become chancellor. Who wouldn't, in this situation?

It will be troublesome, however, and it's far from sure he can pull this through. Three-party-coalitions are always harder to form, and there will also be internal resistance from within the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Results now updated with the postal ballots that were counted yesterday:

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

Turnout now 74.4% (will rise to ca. 75% on Thursday, when the remaining absentees are counted).

The FPÖ has historically always bad results with postal ballots and overall they dropped to 20.6%

The Greens did rather well, NEOS got ca. 6%.

You can watch the full postal vote here:

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at/bw_ov_0.html

[Tender Branson]

The postal vote count led to some changes in the district results:

In my home county Zell am See for example, the SPÖ led the ÖVP by 0.1% pre-postal, but the ÖVP is now ahead by 0.1% after the count.

In Styria, Graz was "won" by the FPÖ before, now the Greens are ahead.

Also, in Vorarlberg and Styria a few other FPÖ-held districts switched and were won by the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

"Die Presse" reports that ca. 31.000 absentee ballots will be counted on Thursday.

This would increase turnout to ca. 74.9%

Compared with 2008, turnout dropped by 3.9%

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/nrwahl2013/1459144/Briefwahl_Mandate-wandern-zu-OeVP-und-Gruenen

[Tender Branson]

A few points about the new government formation:

On average since 1945, new Austrian governments have been formed and sworn in 60 days after the election.

In 1962 it took longest: 129 days after the election

In 1975 the new government was sworn in after 23 days.

In 2008, government talks lasted 65 days.

[Tender Branson]

On a Right vs. Left perspective (if we count the pro-business liberal NEOS as "Right"), then Austria voted as followed:

59% Right (ÖVP+FPÖ+TS+NEOS+BZÖ+CPÖ+EU EXIT)
41% Left (SPÖ+Greens+KPÖ+Pirates+Wandel+SLP)

In the states, support for the "Right" was highest in Vorarlberg at ca. 70%, while Vienna was the only state with a "Left" majority (but only with 51%).

Carinthia was actually the 2nd best state for the "Left" with 46%.

I'll do a district map on Friday when all absentee votes are counted.

[Tender Branson]

What happens with the BZÖ ?

Josef Bucher has called a leadership meeting for Thursday to discuss the "future".

Scenarios:

* Bucher steps down as party leader. In this event, he is likely succeeded by the BZÖ-leader from Upper Austria, Ursula Haubner, who is also the sister of Jörg Haider.



* Bucher does not step down. The BZÖ would remain low-key in the next 5 years and focus on Carinthia, where they are still in the state parliament. They could also focus on the 2015 state elections in Upper Austria and Styria in the meantime.

* The party will be dissolved or merged with another party (very unlikely).

Summary: The BZÖ is basically as dead as it can be, the public funding is completely gone in 2014 and no money means no votes. Expect their voters (3.5%) to go to the FPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS in 2018, or if the Team Stronach is still around in 2018, then they could get some former BZÖ-voters too.

[Tender Branson]

Despite increasing their share from 28% to 30%, the euro-sceptic parties (FPÖ/BZÖ in 2008, FPÖ/TS in 2013) will in fact have 4 euro-sceptic MPs less than 5 years ago:

2008: 34 seats FPÖ, 21 BZÖ -> 55 seats
2013: 40 seats FPÖ, 11 TS -> 51 seats

[peterould]

What happens with the BZÖ ?

Josef Bucher has called a leadership meeting for Thursday to discuss the "future".

Scenarios:

* Bucher steps down as party leader. In this event, he is likely succeeded by the BZÖ-leader from Upper Austria, Ursula Haubner, who is also the sister of Jörg Haider.



* Bucher does not step down. The BZÖ would remain low-key in the next 5 years and focus on Carinthia, where they are still in the state parliament. They could also focus on the 2015 state elections in Upper Austria and Styria in the meantime.

* The party will be dissolved or merged with another party (very unlikely).

Summary: The BZÖ is basically as dead as it can be, the public funding is completely gone in 2014 and no money means no votes. Expect their voters (3.5%) to go to the FPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS in 2018, or if the Team Stronach is still around in 2018, then they could get some former BZÖ-voters too.

Half their 2008 votes went to the FPÖ as it is. There's nothing much left for them except to accept defeat in the decade long right-wing spat and for the leadership to try to gather some crumbs from remerging with the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg must-read piece:

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The fascists do better here because here they have Herbert Kickl, who is a mix of a modern-day Joseph Goebbels and Karl Rove/David Axelrod/David Plouffe:

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[Diouf]

The fascists do better here because here they have Herbert Kickl, who is a mix of a modern-day Joseph Goebbels and Karl Rove/David Axelrod/David Plouffe:

Of course. No one really agrees with those anti-immigration, anti-globalization and/or eurosceptic parties. There are no real problems which could make people vote for these parties. It is just because they have some good marketing and a rhetorically good speaker...

[DC Al Fine]

What happens with the BZÖ ?

Josef Bucher has called a leadership meeting for Thursday to discuss the "future".

Scenarios:

* Bucher steps down as party leader. In this event, he is likely succeeded by the BZÖ-leader from Upper Austria, Ursula Haubner, who is also the sister of Jörg Haider.

[imgsnip]

* Bucher does not step down. The BZÖ would remain low-key in the next 5 years and focus on Carinthia, where they are still in the state parliament. They could also focus on the 2015 state elections in Upper Austria and Styria in the meantime.

* The party will be dissolved or merged with another party (very unlikely).

Summary: The BZÖ is basically as dead as it can be, the public funding is completely gone in 2014 and no money means no votes. Expect their voters (3.5%) to go to the FPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS in 2018, or if the Team Stronach is still around in 2018, then they could get some former BZÖ-voters too.

What do you think of TS's future?

[Tender Branson]

The fascists do better here because here they have Herbert Kickl, who is a mix of a modern-day Joseph Goebbels and Karl Rove/David Axelrod/David Plouffe:

Of course. No one really agrees with those anti-immigration, anti-globalization and/or eurosceptic parties. There are no real problems which could make people vote for these parties. It is just because they have some good marketing and a rhetorically good speaker...

That's not what I meant: Of course the anti-xyz-sentiment is there, but if the FPÖ didn't have Kickl as mastermind, the FPÖ would be stuck at their base 15%.

What happens with the BZÖ ?

Josef Bucher has called a leadership meeting for Thursday to discuss the "future".

Scenarios:

* Bucher steps down as party leader. In this event, he is likely succeeded by the BZÖ-leader from Upper Austria, Ursula Haubner, who is also the sister of Jörg Haider.

[imgsnip]

* Bucher does not step down. The BZÖ would remain low-key in the next 5 years and focus on Carinthia, where they are still in the state parliament. They could also focus on the 2015 state elections in Upper Austria and Styria in the meantime.

* The party will be dissolved or merged with another party (very unlikely).

Summary: The BZÖ is basically as dead as it can be, the public funding is completely gone in 2014 and no money means no votes. Expect their voters (3.5%) to go to the FPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS in 2018, or if the Team Stronach is still around in 2018, then they could get some former BZÖ-voters too.

What do you think of TS's future?

Soon we'll see to what extent his abysmal performance hurts him. If it does, this will be a bad thing, as the protest vote will revert back to the FPÖ. 

Well, in the long term, this would have been the case anyway: Stronach is already past 80. How long do we think will he live ? After his death, his voters would go back to the FPÖ anyway, just as the BZÖ voters would some sort of, if they don't manage to get into parliament again in 3 weeks. If, god forbid, Stronach dies in the next legislative term, then I have serious doubts if the TS can get above 4% again in the 2018 elections. It really depends if the TS of the future is cohesive and able to change and of course it depends if Stronach provides a multi-million € fund for the party after his death, so they can still be competetive in the next state and federal elections up to 2018.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, the LIF (Liberal Forum) has voted unanimously to merge with NEOS.

LIF ran together with NEOS and the Young Liberals in this election.

The merger should take place around Christmas.

http://derstandard.at/1379292754555/LIF-einstimmig-fuer-Verschmelzung-mit-NEOS

Also, the SPÖ thinks: "What the ÖVP can, we can do as well ..."

... and is now saying that they will "cooperate with the FPÖ" in Parliament.

http://derstandard.at/1379292747396/SPOe-laedt-FPOe-zu-Kooperation-im-Parlament-ein

Of course this is only the answer to the ÖVP which did not rule out a coalition with the FPÖ and Team Stronach.

In fact, nobody takes the SPÖ-FPÖ talks seriously: It's only a game to get a good share of posts in a future new SPÖVP coalition.

[njwes]

Any guess as to why, according to the exit poll, middle-aged women appear to be far more fond of the FPO than their older and younger cohorts? (I suppose it could just be a statistical/sampling fluke)

[Tender Branson]

This is how the 2nd biggest city, Graz, voted in 2013 and 2008:



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/nrwahl2013/1459538/Graz-die-politisch-geteilte-Stadt

What was ÖVP became Green, and what was SPÖ became FPÖ ...

On the right side of the Mur river (actually on the left because the Mur is running from North to South), the upper middle class people & students are living, the 4 universities are located there and the young urban professionals are there as well.

On the other side of the river, the working class districts are located with a high amount of foreigners etc.

[Tender Branson]

Any guess as to why, according to the exit poll, middle-aged women appear to be far more fond of the FPO than their older and younger cohorts? (I suppose it could just be a statistical/sampling fluke)

This is of course possible, because the "Exit Poll" is a telephone survey over the election weekend with 1.200 respondents, so the MoE for subgroups is big.

A reason could be that those middle-aged women are mostly working, while the others are not (students/pension). If you are a middle-aged worker, female or male, you feel the pressure of daily life more than the other 2 groups (high taxes, make ends meet). Therefore the FPÖ slogans are on more fertile ground with the middle-aged women and also men.