Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So this is a country where its main Social Democratic Party wins among Pensioners but loses amongst workers. Interesting...

The Gender Gap especially for the under-30s is amazing. Interesting to note there btw that in both cases the OVP is ahead of the SPO (albeit within the MOE).

EDIT: Also interesting, the Stronach support level amongst the Genders...

[Zanas]

So this is a country where its main Social Democratic Party wins among Pensioners but loses amongst workers. Interesting...

The Gender Gap especially for the under-30s is amazing. Interesting to note there btw that in both cases the OVP is ahead of the SPO (albeit within the MOE).

EDIT: Also interesting, the Stronach support level amongst the Genders...

Actually, social democratic parties being weaker and weaker among workers, particularly blue collar, is a widespread thing. Holding up so good among pensioners is indeed peculiar though.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What makes you think Neos and BZÖ could merge ? O_o There are basically no fields in which they agree. They are completely opposed on style and politics. The only thing you could say is they are both "right-wing"...

I agree that their emphases are not the same, but NEOS already includes both LiF and JuLis, so adding to NEOS a third group whose history began as a fractioning off of a part of the FPÖ doesn't seem implausible, assuming their leaders could agree.  The only major stumbling block would at a distance seem to be their positions on Europe, but I have no idea how important Euroskepticism is to the BZÖ.  If it is a non-negotiable issue for them then FPÖ or TS would seem to be a more logical choice for an electoral alliance.

[Tender Branson]

I will answer your questions later ...

...

First, here is SORA's absentee/postal projection, which is the final result + absentee/postal votes:

26.6% SPÖ
24.0% ÖVP
20.7% FPÖ
12.2% Greens
  5.8% TS
  5.2% NEOS
  3.6% BZÖ
  2.0% Others

FPÖ loses 2 seats, SPÖ 1 seat in the absentee/postal count, while ÖVP/Greens/NEOS each gain one.

http://www.sora.at/themen/wahlverhalten/wahlanalysen/hochrechnungen/brf-nrw13.html

Of course, SORA does not know how the absentee voters actually voted, so this is a calculation using historical absentee patterns.

The MoE is +/- 0.2%

[Tender Branson]

Some graphics and charts:

Voter flow analysis (how many of a parties' 2008 voters went where in 2013)



Voter profile (who voted for which party), in the US it would be called "Exit Poll"



Winning party by district



State results (without postals/absentees)



Historical results of SPÖVP and coalitions

[Tender Branson]

The new map by town/city:

[njwes]

So many beautiful graphics! Especially love the vote flow chart, very interesting. Thanks for posting!

Did anything in particular surprise you about the results of the election?

Also, out of curiosity, any guess as to why middle-aged women appear to be far more fond of the FPO than their older and younger cohorts? (I suppose it could just be a statistical/sampling fluke)

[peterould]

I will answer your questions later ...

...

First, here is SORA's absentee/postal projection, which is the final result + absentee/postal votes:

26.6% SPÖ
24.0% ÖVP
20.7% FPÖ
12.2% Greens
  5.8% TS
  5.2% NEOS
  3.6% BZÖ
  2.0% Others

Thanks

I've updated the spreadsheet with all the predictions on.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap2uzoWQK7d9dHRmaDRfZWh4LVQ2X0VEVDVvRTNTWVE&usp=sharing

[Tender Branson]

This is how things are developing:

Faymann says "he only wants to talk with the ÖVP".

ÖVP keeps the "ÖVP-FPÖ-TS" horror scenario warm to get their fair share of posts in a SPÖVP coalition.

Therefore: new SPÖVP coalition.

[peterould]

This is how things are developing:

Faymann says "he only wants to talk with the ÖVP".

ÖVP keeps the "ÖVP-FPÖ-TS" horror scenario warm to get their fair share of posts in a SPÖVP coalition.

Therefore: new SPÖVP coalition.

I have a gut feeling we're going to end up with Spindelegger as Chancellor. You heard it here first....

:-)

[Zanas]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

Today, ca. 550.000 postal votes were counted.

The updated numbers will be released in the next hours.

Then, on Thursday, the smaller number of absentee ballots that were cast in a precinct other than the own will be counted.

On Friday, the final and official result will be released by the Interior Minister.

[Tender Branson]

From the "Standard" live ticker a few minutes ago:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What this means:

The SPÖ leadership has discussed possible coalition talks today and came "almost unanimously" to the conclusion that they will talk only with the ÖVP and nobody else. He also said that he expects the ÖVP to do the same and that his relationship with Spindelegger is "fine". The ÖVP leadership will debate about coalition talks later today.

[peterould]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that they came in 2nd place. What matters is that 2nd, 3rd and 5th place have enough between them to form a majority.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

The BZÖ would need a share of ca. 6.5% in the postal/absentee count to pass the 4% threshold overall.

Doesn't look all too bad, but it would still be roughly twice the share they got among ALL precinct voters.

[Leftbehind]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that they came in 2nd place. What matters is that 2nd, 3rd and 5th place have enough between them to form a majority.

I don't think I need to tell you how often that possibility has been the case throughout Austrian history, and very rarely seized upon by the ÖVP (and for good reason).

[Tender Branson]

If NEOS gets 10-15% of postals/absentees, they could get 5.4-5.8% overall.

[peterould]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that they came in 2nd place. What matters is that 2nd, 3rd and 5th place have enough between them to form a majority.

I don't think I need to tell you how often that possibility has been the case throughout Austrian history, and very rarely seized upon by the ÖVP (and for good reason).

Thing is, the last time it happened the ÖVP didn't actually do too badly out of it.

2002 after 1999 was the best result for the ÖVP for 25 years. Once people saw the FPÖ in government they went back to the ÖVP in droves.

[Tender Branson]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that they came in 2nd place. What matters is that 2nd, 3rd and 5th place have enough between them to form a majority.

I don't think I need to tell you how often that possibility has been the case throughout Austrian history, and very rarely seized upon by the ÖVP (and for good reason).

Thing is, the last time it happened the ÖVP didn't actually do too badly out of it.

2002 after 1999 was the best result for the ÖVP for 25 years. Once people saw the FPÖ in government they went back to the ÖVP in droves.

That's exactly why nobody wants such a government !

Once you let far-right-wingers govern, the whole country goes to the dogs. (Is this correct in English ?)

[Tender Branson]

The new parliament will have 4 MPs with migration background, 3 of them new.

3 with Turkish origin (2x Greens, 1x SPÖ) and 1 with Moroccan origin (ÖVP).

He's also the first practicing Muslim in a Christian-Conservative Party.

[Tender Branson]

Just a few pictures that show how the pinkish NEOS folks went wild after they saw the 1st projection:

[peterould]

I don't buy it. They weren't even close to SPÖ in terms of votes. But clearly they could improve their position in the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that they came in 2nd place. What matters is that 2nd, 3rd and 5th place have enough between them to form a majority.

I don't think I need to tell you how often that possibility has been the case throughout Austrian history, and very rarely seized upon by the ÖVP (and for good reason).

Thing is, the last time it happened the ÖVP didn't actually do too badly out of it.

2002 after 1999 was the best result for the ÖVP for 25 years. Once people saw the FPÖ in government they went back to the ÖVP in droves.

That's exactly why nobody wants such a government !

Once you let far-right-wingers govern, the whole country goes to the dogs. (Is this correct in English ?)

That's pretty much right!

[peterould]

Tender, have you got the equivalent pictures for the BZÖ when they realised they had bombed out of the Nationalrat?

:-)

[Leftbehind]

'Pink revolution'.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, have you got the equivalent pictures for the BZÖ when they realised they had bombed out of the Nationalrat?

:-)

There are not a lot, it seems nobody misses them:




...

Well, if they would have used the picture below and put it on their posters before the election, they might have gained the extra point that puts them above 4% ...

But too little, too late ...

Josef Bucher (BZÖ) has voted: