The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a new story about the reelection timing conundrum for both Paul and Rubio:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/rand-paul-marco-rubio-2016-bind-90987.html?hp=f3

Much of it squares with what I've been saying on the subject for months now, but they add new details.

In both cases, the filing deadline for the Senate race is actually a bit earlier than I thought.  Last week of January for Paul in KY and April for Rubio in FL.  But still, by April, the GOP presidential nomination will most likely be decided, so Rubio can run for president and wait to see if he's the nominee before deciding on another Senate term.

In both cases, it's illegal to be on the same ballot for both offices.  The article suggests some trickery that Paul could try to pull, like running for Senate, but keeping his name of the Kentucky primary ballot for president, while running for the presidential nomination in the other 49 states.  But that's of questionable legality, and it's not clear that the KY GOP would go along with such shenanigans, just because Paul wants to run for both offices at once.

[Mr. Morden]

Bill Clinton says his wife "hasn't mentioned" to him whether she plans on running for prez in 2016:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/bill-clinton-says-hillary-hasnt-mentioned-2016-run-to-him/

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper calls his trip to Israel "the most remarkable of my life":

http://www.coloradostatesman.com/content/994143-hickenlooper-trip-israel-was-%3F-most-remarkable-my-life%3F

[Mr. Morden]

One thing to watch for is how the 2016ers try to suck up to the pols within their own party in the early primary states.  To that end, Rubio's PAC has started a "stand with Kelly" petition on its website, to show support for Kelly Ayotte over her vote on the gun background check bill:

https://www.reclaimamericapac.com/stand-with-kelly/

[RogueBeaver]

Rand is already assembling his team.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=C9203FE1-8DC4-4C71-874F-6DC6EA5A70CE

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is visiting both Iowa and Nevada in July:

http://therun2016.com/rand-planning-july-trips-to-iowa-nevada/

Martinez will be doing more travel in the coming months, including trips to early primary states Arizona and Nevada:

http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2013/05/10/news/martine-zramps-up-travels.html

Walker will meet with the Dalai Lama next week:

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Walker-to-meet-with-Dalai-Lama-next-week-4502701.php

[RogueBeaver]

Paul says that in likelihood he'll be on the KY-Sen ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal in NH.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/JindalA

[Mr. Morden]

Christie, on his appeal to GOP primary voters:

http://www.christianpost.com/news/nj-gov-chris-christie-im-a-damn-good-republican-for-2016-presidential-run-95681/

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[RogueBeaver]

Paul courting evangelicals.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-rand-paul-aggressively-courting-evangelicals-to-win-over-gop-establishment/2013/05/12/d917ccb4-b8af-11e2-b94c-b684dda07add_story.html

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio's PAC is making a six figure ad buy in NH, in support of Ayotte's vote on background checks:

http://therun2016.com/rubio-defends-ayotte-in-new-hampshire/

Again, this serves Rubio's political interests in an obvious way: NH is an early primary state.  It's in Rubio's interest to curry favor with GOP pols in early primary states.

[Mr. Morden]

This news is a week old, but Ryan Lizza did a cover story on Hickenlooper for the New Yorker, which is unfortunately only available to subscribers.  But Politico posts some excerpts here, including Hickenlooper insisting that he has no plans to run for prez:

http://www.politico.com/playbook/0513/playbook10594.html

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[tonyreyes89]

Christie is trying to lose weight for 2016 imo.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden is going deeper into debt, taking out a second home-equity line of credit:

http://swampland.time.com/2013/05/15/biden-take-out-home-loan/?iid=sl-main-mostpop1

The speculation has been that one reason that Biden might be happy to pass on a 2016 run is that it'll give him the opportunity to actually make some real $ in the private sector for a few years before he retires:

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[RogueBeaver]

Santorum is prepping. Congrats Phil.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum is prepping. Congrats Phil.

Indeed, here are the money quotes:

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[RogueBeaver]

Rubio is prepping.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So far we've got Rubio, Santorum, Walker, and Paul (maybe Jindal too). Any word on Christie? He's the elephant in the room, after all.

[Blue3]

So far we've got Rubio, Santorum, Walker, and Paul (maybe Jindal too). Any word on Christie? He's the elephant in the room, after all.

He has to win his Governor's race first.

[Mr. Morden]

So far we've got Rubio, Santorum, Walker, and Paul (maybe Jindal too). Any word on Christie? He's the elephant in the room, after all.

Here's the blurb on Christie 2016 that I wrote back in January:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3594703#msg3594703

In brief: He met with both the IA and NH delegations at last year's RNC, and visited both states in the fall.  He's also said several times now that he expects to be "more ready to be president" in 2016.  So, all in all, he's made his intentions pretty clear.  Of course, nothing is set in stone.  But he couldn't be making it much clearer that a presidential run is something that he's interested in.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All right then.

[Gass3268]

2016 Republican Primary is going to be crazy 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

2016 Republican Primary is going to be crazy 

[Mr. Morden]

Patrick insists that he wouldn't leave his job as MA governor before his term is up in January 2015, so he won't accept any Cabinet offer from Obama if it means leaving early (the current speculation is that Holder will likely leave within the next year, and Patrick would be a contender to replace him):

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2013/05/governor_dismisses_talk_hes_dc_bound

What's interesting about that story is the amount of attention devoted to discussion of how a Cabinet selection would impact Patrick's presidential ambitions.....which kind of assumes that he has presidential ambitions.....which isn't as obvious anymore, since he hasn't done anything to indicate interest in the last six months or so.

[AmosNC]

I could def. see Deval Patrick in the 2016 cabinet if a Democrat is elected.