The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

I'm thinking of using this thread as a reference guide for every clue about who's running and who isn't.  What I mean is, every time one of the potential candidates visits one of the early primary states, or starts a PAC, or is asked about whether they're going to run and gives an evasive answer or something like that, we'd link to the story here.  This would *not* preclude the option of having separated threads about each of those events as well, if people feel like having the separate thread.

For example, "Santorum organizing for 2016":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164914.0

That's certainly worth having its own thread.  So when a story like that comes out, someone starts the thread on that.  But then we'd also link to the story (and the discussion thread) here, since this would be a one stop reference guide for all such developments.  That way, you have one place where you can go, and browse through all the developments, to get a better picture of who's prepping for 2016.

What do you think?

[Mr. Morden]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

[badgate]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

To post it would be a breach of ethics and result in a grand jury investigation in the Atlantsia Supreme Court!

[Mr. Morden]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

Then why did you tell us that you had it?

[Ogre Mage]

Marco Rubio goes to Iowa:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gqsyBX6t72ai2LbnHaWlPlut0VRg?docId=ca20097aa2fb4d84a2b16e0e0904471e

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

Then why did you tell us that you had it?

To create some buzz.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I guess I'll start posting tidbits in this thread.....

Dispatch from New Hampshire:

http://www.newburyportnews.com/local/x2120603533/2016-primary-is-just-38-months-off

Hickenlooper "has started to make contact with locals".

Meanwhile, "Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Sen. Mario Rubio of Florida already have asked to be invited to Lincoln Day dinners, and only the serious or foolhardy volunteer to travel to New Hampshire in February."

[Mr. Morden]

OK, in addition to posting the current stuff, I'm going to go back and recap the evidence for and against various potential candidates running in 2016.  There are quite a few potential candidates out there, so I'll do this in stages, updating a couple of candidates at a time, in more or less random order.

Today, I'll recap the situation with two potential Democratic candidates:

Deval Patrick

Patrick is in his second term as governor of MA, and he says he's going to retire at the end of his term in 2014, and "return to the private sector":

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/deval-patrick-i-like-being-the-boss-but-2016-presidential-run-not-happening/

He's already ruled out running for president in 2016:

“If there is a time sometime later to come back and serve in public life, I hope I’m able to do that. Just not going to be in 2016,” he added.

OK, so that would seem to rule him out.  Except that there's a long history of politicians ruling out a run for president, and then going back and changing their minds.  Also, it should be noted that Patrick delivered the keynote address at a June 2012 meeting of the Iowa Democratic Party:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152933.0

and also wrote an op/ed in support of Obama's reelection for the Des Moines Register in August, just before the DNC:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/oh-look-its-deval-patrick-in-iowa-132687.html

Patrick is also rumored to be a top prospect for a second term Obama Cabinet post, most likely either Attorney General if Holder leaves, or Secretary of HHS if Sebelius leaves.  Of course, it would be possible to take a Cabinet spot for two years, and then leave the Cabinet to run for president.  If it's a high profile job like Attorney General, it could certain boost Patrick's national profile.

Jack Markell

Everyone knows about Joe Biden's presidential ambitions, but what about his fellow Delawarean, Delaware Gov. Jack Markell?  What, you don't remember the Jack Markell boomlet from September?  Here, I'll remind you.  This was a line in a Politco story, from their DNC coverage:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.msg3413015#msg3413015

"Gov. Jack Markell also may consider a White House run, according to a Democratic source."

AFAIK, that's been the extent of the Jack Markell buzz so far.  Maybe Markell will in fact run.  Or maybe he'll be the Dirk Kempthorne of the 2016 cycle.  Kempthorne was being mentioned as possibly interested in the 2012 GOP presidential nomination…..for all of about one week back in Jan. 2009:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0109/Kempthorne_2012.html

After that, we never heard from him again.  Will Markell be the Kempthorne 2012 of the 2016 race?  Or will he get really ambitious and decide to run, so that he can be the Jim Gilmore 2008 of the 2016 race?

[Paul Kemp]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

No, no you don't.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

No, no you don't.

Yes, I do.

If you think you do, you probably don't know what insider information is.

[BM]

Not really. That applies to basically all Democrats, and probably some Republicans.

[Joe Republic]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

Then why did you tell us that you had it?

Let the poor kid attention whore in peace!  It's one of the few things he has to do around here.

[Simfan34]

My original post was ill-considered.

[Joe Republic]

I have insider information on the Democratic side.

Then post it here.

No.

Then why did you tell us that you had it?

Let the poor kid attention whore in peace!  It's one of the few things he has to do around here.

My original post registering to post here was ill-considered.

FTFY

[Mr. Morden]

Today's entry:

Paul Ryan

Ryan has obviously visited both Iowa and New Hampshire a number of times in recent months, but that doesn't mean the same thing for him as it does for others, since IA and NH are both swing states, and Ryan was the party's VP nominee.  (And before that, he was auditioning to be the party's VP nominee.)  So you can't read those visits as necessarily indicating presidential ambition of his own.  So does Ryan actually have presidential ambitions of his own, or is he happy to either remain in the House or serve in someone else's administration (as VP, if Romney had won)?

Ryan has sometimes tried to play down his own political ambitions, but in 2011, he showed some evidence of the presidential bug when he seemed to open the door a crack to a potential presidential run of his own in 2012.  Obviously, he ended up not running, but now that Ryan has played on the national stage, is he ready to run on his own in 2016?  Well, while some of the names being floated as potential candidates in '16 are people who've actually already ruled out a run (but may change their minds), Ryan simply dodges the question:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83744.html

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And then of course, there's the fact that Ryan would like you to know that he really loved the national campaign, especially the part of it that took place in Iowa:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/19/us/politics/paul-ryan-emerges-as-power-broker-in-fiscal-talks.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&pagewanted=2&adxnnlx=1353420757-0xjIeOmIaBqz0xQwcwOV6A

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Would running for president in 2016 mean that Ryan would have to give up his House seat?  Not necessarily.  The filing deadline for House races in WI isn't until June, by which time the GOP presidential nomination will most likely be decided.  So Ryan could run for the GOP nomination, and then switch to the House race if he doesn't win the nom.  (Though if he does win the nom., it'd be White House or bust.)

What's less clear is whether it would be easy for him to retain his chairmanship of the Budget Committee while he's running for president.  Many previous presidential candidates running from Congress have held onto committee chairmanships.  But those were more often than not lower profile committees, not quite as central to the nonstop partisan battles between Congress and the President over taxes and spending.

But will Ryan still be chairman in 2016 anyway?  The GOP has term limits on committee chairmanships.  They're already bending their normal term limit rules to let Ryan stay in place as chairman for the next Congress.  Maybe they're willing to keep doing that.  Alternatively, Ryan could step down as chairman of the Budget Committee in Jan. 2015 to mount a presidential campaign.  He's said to covet the chairmanship of the Ways and Means Committee, but that committee likely won't open up for another few years.  (2018?  2020 or beyond?)  While Ryan is waiting to take over the committee that he's most interested in, he could pass the time by running for president!  

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a 2016 story with a bonanza of tidbits about potential GOP candidates:


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

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[Maxwell]

Bachmann 2016? Oh wow... not again

[politicus]

Bachmann, Perry, Paul and Santorum are delusional if they think they have a chance.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, today I'll look at two sons of former presidential candidates, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul.

Jeb Bush

In the entry on Ryan, I mention how he (sort of) flirted with running for president himself in 2012.  Same is true of Jeb Bush.  To get some insight into the almost 2012 Bush presidential campaign, and the dynamics of the Bush clan as a whole, read this 7 page New York magazine cover story on Bush, which begins here:

http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/jeb-bush-2012-10/

Too much in there to quote everything of interest, but here's the most relevant bit on 2012…..which could also be relevant for 2016:

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After deciding against a run in 2012, Bush seemed to resign himself to his political retirement, as he lamented, after Romney had won the nomination:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77137.html

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He seemed to be burning his political bridges, as he criticized the party on immigration, and decried it as being too exclusionary:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77325.html

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As that NY Magazine story notes:

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Bush is also writing a book on immigration:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81111.html

Whether you take that as a sign that he's burning his bridges with the party base, or that he's positioning himself for a run is up to your interpretation.  However, Bush publicly is very much ruling himself in as a potential 2016 candidate.  He visited Iowa last month:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/jeb-bush-heads-to-iowa/

and he's said that he has "not made that decision" on a 2016 run.  And finally, as of today, Politico has reported:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84110.html

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EDIT: Almost forgot.  Just yesterday, Jeb's son, Jeb Jr., said "I certainly hope so" when asked if his father would run in 2016:

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/268887-jeb-bush-jr-wants-father-to-run-for-president-says-rubio-remark-strange

Rand Paul

Rand Paul got a very early start on campaigning in Iowa.  He began campaigning there in January 2012, just before the 2012 caucuses, as he campaigned for his father:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/ron-and-rand-paul-hit-the-trail-a-day-before-iowa-caucuses/

Since then, he's visited the state on his own in May of this year:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/03/watch-rand-cuccinelli-to-iowa-119044.html

and he met with the Iowa delegation at the RNC this August:

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/politics/2012/08/29/is-rand-paul-auditioning-for-iowa-in-2016/

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He also set up his own PAC this year, RAND PAC, which aired several TV ads attacking incumbent congressional Democrats on foreign aid:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82369.html?hp=l2

Of course, any national PAC has the potential to serve as a sort of proto-presidential campaign.

Finally, he's now publicly saying that he's "interested" in a 2016 run:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165218.0

How much more obvious do you want to the tea leaves to get here?

One final note though.  Unfortunately for Paul, he does not have the same luxury that his father had, or that Rubio and Ryan have, in being able to run for president, and then switch back to a reelection campaign if it doesn't work out.  Rand is up for reelection in 2016, and the filing deadline in Kentucky is in February.  So he can't realistically run for president and then wait until the nomination is decided before skipping out to jump into the Senate race.  He'll have to make a decision on the Senate race (most likely) before the nomination is decided.  So if he runs for prez, he's taking the John Edwards route of retiring from the Senate after one term.

[Mr. Morden]

Martin O'Malley

OK, look.  O'Malley's running.  Yes, if Hillary Clinton runs, he'd presumably opt out.  But if she doesn't, he's running.  He started running about 6 months ago, and has been more obvious about it than anyone I've ever seen, this far before the election.  (Especially for someone who still has a day job!)  Do we really need to go through all of the ways in which he's been telling us that he's running?

Well OK, here are a few.  In addition to going on national TV nonstop, he also made it out to New Hampshire way back in June:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/05/alert-omalley-to-new-hampshire-123676.html

then Iowa for the Harkin Steak Fry in September:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/omalley-to-headline-harkin-steak-fry-131265.html?hp=l10

He launched a federal PAC in July:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/omalley-launches-federal-pac-as-national-profile-rises/2012/07/26/gJQADPR6AX_blog.html

And he met with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at the DNC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158046.0

He's also been taking several foreign trips, and had a planned trip to Israel (perennial foreign stop for US presidential candidates) cancelled because of the conflict with Gaza:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/omalley-postpones-israel-visit/2012/11/20/42b63576-3321-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_story.html

(This would have actually been his *third* trip to Israel since taking office as MD governor in 2005.)

I could go on, but what's the point?  How much more clear could O'Malley be making his intentions here?

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is still only the Attorney General of California….not a position from which one normally launched directly into a presidential campaign.  If she is ever to be included on a national ticket, it'll probably only happen after she's served as either California governor or US Senator.  Neither of CA's senate seats are up until 2016 at the earliest.  *Maybe* Jerry Brown steps down after one term, since he'd be 80 at the end of a hypothetical second term.  In which case *maybe* Harris could win the Democratic nomination for governor, and then go on to win the general election.

But then what?  Is she going to launch a presidential campaign a few months after beginning her first term as governor?  Highly unlikely.  (However, she would probably end up being a 2016 VP shortlister, and potential 2020 presidential candidate.)

So why am I even listing her here?  Because she is technically in the "has not yet ruled out a run for president in 2016" category, as per her comments at the DNC:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/kamala-harris-superstitious-about-presidential-talk/

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Morry Taylor

If Kamala Harris isn't obscure enough of a candidate for you, how about Morry Taylor?  Switching over to the GOP side of the aisle, "the Grizz" ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 1996, and got about 1% of the vote in all the primaries he ran in.  But back in those days, that didn't matter, because he could still get facetime in the debates.  Imagine if the 2012 rules were that lax.  We'd have seen Buddy Roemer, and maybe even Fred Karger in the debates.

Taylor is one of the few candidates who's effectively already announced his candidacy….back in August:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158237.0

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Well, Obama has won.  So time for Grizz-fever.

[Mr. Morden]

More Bush:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/us/politics/jeb-bush-in-2016-its-not-too-early-for-chatter.html?pagewanted=all

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[Mr. Morden]

John Hickenlooper

Presidential buzz began early for first term Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper….way back in August 2011, little more than six months into his term:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62307.html

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Hickenlooper has insisted that he's not interested:

http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_19669660

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He did speak at the DNC though, and David Weigel's convention coverage suggested that Hickenlooper might be open to a run:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/07/the_great_race_for_2016.html

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Hickenlooper did joke about the fact that a Hillary Clinton candidacy would drive everyone out of the race except him:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/hickenlooper-half-the-field-would-drop-out-if-hillary-134573.html

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He also visited NH in August:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156641.0

and there's reporting here that he's been laying the groundwork there:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/new-hampshire-2016-yes-already-e07nmat-180533191.html

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Finally, it should be noted that just a few months ago, Hickenlooper separated from his wife:

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012-07-31/news/32966436_1_helen-thorpe-presidential-bid-john-hickenlooper

I leave it up to you to speculate on whether that'll matter for any potential presidential hopes.

[Lief 🗽]

Kamala Harris is one of the frontrunners to replace Ginsburg, which makes the running for president story even sillier.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kamala Harris is one of the frontrunners to replace Ginsburg,

Really? First time I hear that. I thought that Jacqueline Nguyen was the frontrunner for the next SCOTUS opening.

[Mr. Morden]

Kathleen Sebelius

This one is kind of "out there", though certainly not as far-fetched as Kamala Harris.  Sebelius was rumored to have been interested in a presidential run in the 2000s, but didn't run in 2008, possibly because of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.  She'll be 68 years old on election day 2016, just one year younger than HRC, which is kind of old for a first time presidential candidate.

Sebelius hasn't been making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire, nor has she set up a PAC, or given any of the usual signs of interest in a presidential candidacy.  The one clue that she might still be interested in higher office is that she's been unusually politically active for a sitting member of the Cabinet, to the point that she has been accused of breaking the law:

http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-09-12/sebelius-broke-the-law-but-wont-be-punished/

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She also spoke at this year's DNC, which is also highly unusual for a sitting Cabinet secretary.  Is she doing this in part because she has future political ambitions of her own?  We'll have to wait and see.  In any case, the logic of a Sebelius 2016 campaign would be obvious.  She could run on her implementation of Obamacare, and argue that she's best qualified to preside over its expansion with a public option or whatever it is she wants to propose.

Condoleezza Rice



Another woman who's a longshot possibility as a 2016 presidential candidate is Condoleezza Rice.  Rice has never run for office before, nor expressed interest in running for office.  The only clue suggesting that that might change is the fact that, this year, she suddenly decided to get politically active.  She raised money for "ShePAC", a PAC whose goal is the election of "conservative women":

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/25/condoleezza-rice-to-raise-cash-for-gop-women/

She endorsed candidates in several races, and she spoke at the RNC.  Is there some personal political agenda at play here?  Well, it's possible that the game here was to curry favor with Romney, in order to get a job in his administration.  But what job?  She's already been Secretary of State.  What job is higher than that?  Vice President?  Rice consistently said thanks but no thanks:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80338.html

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And:

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OK, so president?  Again, Rice has consistently said that she's not going to run for anything, ever.  I'm only mentioning her here at all because her sudden burst of political activity got people talking.