Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Inmate Trump]

I actually think it's possible that democrats could end up outvoting republicans in the GA gov primary. Most of the outstanding areas are super D.

D's would have to outvote by a lot in election day returns, though.

of the votes that are already in:

while 37% of early votes were Democratic...
only 33% of election day votes were Democratic

(this is just a comparison of the gubernatorial votes on both sides so it doesn't count the "neither party" weirdos who show up to vote for nothing but judicial races)

it's still theoretically possible for Democrats to outvote the GOP, but we'd need some massive yuge big league election day turnout in Fulton+Dekalb

Ah. Looks like the GOP will still easily outvote then, but it'll be much less than 2016.

What was it in 2016?

[Del Tachi]

NYT calls for Abrams

[GeorgiaModerate]

With 45% in, Abrams is over 74%, Cagle has slipped below 39%, and it's looking increasingly likely that Barrow will avoid a runoff; he's currently at 52.3%.

Perhaps the biggest surprise so far is the R primary for SoS.  The very conservative state senator Josh McKoon was considered the favorite, but is currently well back in third place with about 20%.

[Adam Griffin]

[Buzz]

Clay Tippins won a county!

[Greedo punched first]

Clay Tippins won a county!

I noticed that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm happy that my despicable state senator, Michael Williams, is dead last in the GOP primary.

[Bacon King]

Clay Tippins won a county!

my dad's side of the family is from Wheeler!

[henster]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

[Sestak]

Abrams over 75% with DeKalb only 1% in. This is a massacre.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Abrams over 75% with DeKalb only 1% in. This is a massacre.

Yeah, I expected her to win, but this is astonishing.

[Buzz]

Wheeler just switched over to Kemp, must have been an error for Tippins.

[libertpaulian]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

Blame Evans for running a one-issue campaign and for not having a larger presence in the campaign. 

Abrams MORE than earned this.

[Mr. Smith]

Wow, didn't expect this much of a blowout at all for Abrams.

Also expected Cagle to reach 50, that didn't happen either.

Though I noticed that Republicans still outnumber Democrats numerically, though Abrams did take more votes than Cagle.

At this rate, Abrams might actually pull a Doug Jones-esque steal after all.

[ON Progressive]

Looks like incumbent State Senator Curt Thompson will be primaried in the Safe D seat of GA SD-05. He is losing 67-33 right now.

One thing that stands out about Thompson is that he has some incredibly bizarre combination of endorsements. He has been endorsed by Democracy for America, the NRA, the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, the NRA, AND the American Cancer Society in the past.

[krazen1211]

I actually think it's possible that democrats could end up outvoting republicans in the GA gov primary. Most of the outstanding areas are super D.

D's would have to outvote by a lot in election day returns, though.

Not even close thus far. 476k votes for the GOP. 359k for Dems.

Plus I believe that Abrams is unelectable and I also believe she is too far outside the mainstream of Georgia politics. So that helps Republicans who hope for a win here, as I do.

[Buzz]

NYT calls a runoff for Kemp vs Cagle!  I think Kemp has a chance!

[Bacon King]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

this primary result proves that the Evans campaign is FAR too incompetent to be allowed anywhere near a general election ballot. she couldn't even break 30% of the vote in lily-white suburbs/exurbs

Even in the south GA counties where the electorate was nothing but white DINOs (on account of competitive local elections that are still ancestrally decided in the democratic primary), Abrams still won -- with incredible margins, too!

How is Stacey Evans supposed to "breakthrough with whites" when she can't even win white voters in the Democratic primary?

BE COMPETITIVE AMONG WHITE VOTERS is what the statewide democratic candidates have tried to do in Georgia over and over again. It didn't work for Jim Barksdale, Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter, Carol Porter, or literally anyone else. Even the great John Barrow only won in 2012 thanks to his excellent campaign that simultaneously won over white voters (in a way no other GA politico can) AND used Obama's reelection campaign to boost black turnout to a level that part of the state had never before seen.

Don't you think it's time to try something else for a change?

[IceSpear]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

this primary result proves that the Evans campaign is FAR too incompetent to be allowed anywhere near a general election ballot. she couldn't even break 30% of the vote in lily-white suburbs/exurbs

Even in the south GA counties where the electorate was nothing but white DINOs (on account of competitive local elections that are still ancestrally decided in the democratic primary), Abrams still won -- with incredible margins, too!

How is Stacey Evans supposed to "breakthrough with whites" when she can't even win white voters in the Democratic primary?

BE COMPETITIVE AMONG WHITE VOTERS is what the statewide democratic candidates have tried to do in Georgia over and over again. It didn't work for Jim Barksdale, Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter, Carol Porter, or literally anyone else. Even the great John Barrow only won in 2012 thanks to his excellent campaign that simultaneously won over white voters (in a way no other GA politico can) AND used Obama's reelection campaign to boost black turnout to a level that part of the state had never before seen.

Don't you think it's time to try something else for a change?

Tbf, no strategy would've worked in 2014/2016.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Yeah Evans’ campaign was awful. But Abrams’ strategy seems to basically be to ignore white voters and try and max out minority voters. Which is mathematically impossible. We would’ve been so much better off with Jason Carter.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the combined D vs R vote, it looks like democrats are outvoting republicans in a lot of rural black areas that Hillary lost in 2016

They seem to be doing a bit worse around metro Atlanta though (granted... very little reporting around there still)

[ON Progressive]

All the griping about Evan's formula for winning being outdated and such. What will people say when Abrams loses by close to double digits? Dems must breakthrough with whites in order to win there's no other way.

this primary result proves that the Evans campaign is FAR too incompetent to be allowed anywhere near a general election ballot. she couldn't even break 30% of the vote in lily-white suburbs/exurbs

Even in the south GA counties where the electorate was nothing but white DINOs (on account of competitive local elections that are still ancestrally decided in the democratic primary), Abrams still won -- with incredible margins, too!

How is Stacey Evans supposed to "breakthrough with whites" when she can't even win white voters in the Democratic primary?

BE COMPETITIVE AMONG WHITE VOTERS is what the statewide democratic candidates have tried to do in Georgia over and over again. It didn't work for Jim Barksdale, Michelle Nunn, Jason Carter, Carol Porter, or literally anyone else. Even the great John Barrow only won in 2012 thanks to his excellent campaign that simultaneously won over white voters (in a way no other GA politico can) AND used Obama's reelection campaign to boost black turnout to a level that part of the state had never before seen.

Don't you think it's time to try something else for a change?

She not only didn't win white voters, she almost certainly lost them by a huge margin. Losing counties like Union (56-44 Abrams) and Fannin (61-39 Abrams) by double digits are all I need to see to know she got blown out by Abrams among white voters.

[Bacon King]

I just checked the precinct results and Stacey Evans didn't even break 40% in her own district

[Alabama_Indy10]

Any thoughts on the GOP runoff?

[Podgy the Bear]

Yeah Evans’ campaign was awful. But Abrams’ strategy seems to basically be to ignore white voters and try and max out minority voters. Which is mathematically impossible. We would’ve been so much better off with Jason Carter.

Exactly.  She can't go with this strategy into the general.  To have any chance, she will have to do what Obama did.  That is, she will have to appeal somehow to the white vote in the suburbs/exurbs/rural areas and to reduce the massive margins that Cagle/Kemp will have.  Otherwise, we are looking at numbers of the Denise Majette 2004 senatorial or Mark Taylor 2006 gubernatorial races.