Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

I haven't ran the figures yet, but ED vote might be more Democratic than EV...

According to the SoS figures (which breaks it down by EV & ED):

Election Day:
GOP: 52.01%
DEM: 47.99%

Early Vote:
GOP: 56.21%
DEM: 43.79%

This doesn't match up with the data that was in the absentee file published by SoS in the days prior...unless everybody who requested a mail ballot and who didn't vote were Democrats.

[Devout Centrist]

Hot damn! That's wild. Also some interesting news to report out of GA-06: Karen Handel received 1,184 fewer votes than the Democratic field of candidates. Might not want to read too much into that, but it's still rather neat!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why The Heck does every and their mother think this will be competitive?! This stuff is all over even main news and headlines sometimes, ridiculous... ok, if Kemp wins the runoff it will be Tilt R-Weak Lean R, but if Cagle wins (he will most likely) It will be Likely R-Safe R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

BTW, I did not know or care too much about the race, but from what I have heard, I would have voted for Stacey Evans if I could have. Abrams seems ok, and I would unenthusiastically support her in a GE. Probably won't get a sign though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why The Heck does every and their mother think this will be competitive?! This stuff is all over even main news and headlines sometimes, ridiculous... ok, if Kemp wins the runoff it will be Tilt R-Weak Lean R, but if Cagle wins (he will most likely) It will be Likely R-Safe R.

Georgia only voted for Trump by 5% and Abrams has blown away expectations so far. She has a real chance, although I think she only does narrowly better than Hillary right now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Abrams blowout wasn't good enough, Ken Hodges beat the Newt Gingrich backed Ken Shigley for the Court of Appeals!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why The Heck does every and their mother think this will be competitive?! This stuff is all over even main news and headlines sometimes, ridiculous... ok, if Kemp wins the runoff it will be Tilt R-Weak Lean R, but if Cagle wins (he will most likely) It will be Likely R-Safe R.

Georgia only voted for Trump by 5% and Abrams has blown away expectations so far. She has a real chance, although I think she only does narrowly better than Hillary right now.

I mean, I would vote for Abrams rather easily in a GE, (not in a primary though), but let me just point at the elephant in the room, Georgia is not ready to elect a black woman statewide in a GE, barring some event mostly outside her control ie. Cagle losing the primary, and the GOP nominee turns out to literally be a Kiddy Kuddling Kemp.

[Adam Griffin]

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

[Adam Griffin]

Two fun observations:

1) Wow look at Coastal GA what did I tell you (moderate GOP rebelling)
2) Black Belt & SW GA cracking in 2016 probably wasn't a one-time thing, and is on its way out

(Also most of those really really dark blue counties - and even some lighter shades - in SE GA and beyond are areas where something like 70-90% of primary voters pulled a Dem ballot in '14 for local reasons but are now voting GOP, but it's not indicative of a hemorrhage of GE support; only county where I'd say that's probably the case is Chattooga, but it already showed up in 2016 in the GE)

[Devout Centrist]

Hot damn! That's wild. Also some interesting news to report out of GA-06: Karen Handel received 1,184 fewer votes than the Democratic field of candidates. Might not want to read too much into that, but it's still rather neat!

With 100% of all precincts reporting (some in Dekalb were only partially reported), Democrats have received 1,317 more votes than Congresswoman Handel. While this does not mean that GA-06 will flip in November, it's a shocking result. In 2014 and 2016, Democrats received less than a third of the total number of votes cast in the Republican primary.

[Adam Griffin]

So, it looks like Senate Minority Leader Henson is going to hang on by a thread, thank goodness; still in the range of recount, though.

I bet Curt Thompson never saw it coming, though...

[Politician]

Don't let RINO Tom see Abrams' numbers in the Atlanta suburbs.

[OneJ]

Just looking at a few major counties alone, it looks like the non-black minority vote (Asians, Latinos, etc.) definitely chose Abrams over Evans, am I correct?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just looking at a few major counties alone, it looks like the non-black minority vote (Asians, Latinos, etc.) definitely chose Abrams over Evans, am I correct?

Yes. No way Evans won any of those with Abrams' crushing leads in Gwinnett (Asian, Latino), Forsyth (Asian), and Hall (Latino).

[GlobeSoc]

Interesting that basically all of Earl Buddy Carter's district swung dem, even though the district has a strong white rural presence.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I might be wrong, but I think that John Barrow is going to lose to Dee Dawkins-Haigler. I just can't see him doing well in the Atlanta metro, and this is sorta 2018's theme.

This aged well.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The GOP collapse in Clinch county is hilarious

[GlobeSoc]

The GOP collapse in Clinch county is hilarious

Why did that happen, since it was a major Trump country county in Georgia? (Both heavily GOP and swinging heavily GOP in 2016)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

didnt cobb go blue by like 4 votes?

[DrScholl]

In 2010 Republicans had an edge of 285,000 in the primary so an advantage change of over 230,000 votes is a big deal. Abrams' strategy of heavily focusing on base turnout clearly paid off in getting more people to the polls. I think Evans probably was counting on a more racially polarized map where she ran up score in rural areas and suburbs, but clearly that did not pay off. Whoever the Republicans nominate is likely to do the same thing and dismiss Abrams as being a joke candidate simply because she is black.

[Rookie Yinzer]

didnt cobb go blue by like 4 votes?

Nah. Cobb had about 250 more GOP votes in the gubernatorial primary, but Democrats won it on every other level

Paging RINO Tom

I thought the best Abrams could hope for was a 5-7 point loss in Cobb, but now I think it's toss-up with a slight tilt to Abrams. I can see her beating Kemp by 1-3 points there. Her canvass outreach will be unmatched.

[Bacon King]

guys check out House District 40 (Smyrna) some random person named Sandra Bullock won the Dem primary even though she has no facebook, no website, never campaigned, and so far nobody has even been able to verify that she actually exists

[Bacon King]

guys check out House District 40 (Smyrna) some random person named Sandra Bullock won the Dem primary even though she has no facebook, no website, never campaigned, and so far nobody has even been able to verify that she actually exists

the state party has been trying to get in touch with her for like six hours at this point and opinions are divided on whether this is an Alvin Greene situation or if it's a weird prank that somehow made it past the Secretary of State's office without getting noticed

[_]

Welp, John Barrow did it, THE MADMAN IS BACK!

I think GA SOS will be Tilt D, and Gov depends on the R runoff obviously, but Abrams is clearly running into the GE with momentum on her side, hopefully she recognizes Dems should go after Rural GA as well, otherwise she'll probably just barely lose the GE.

Edit:  I meant places in Northern GA like Whitfield, not just the Black Belt.

[Rookie Yinzer]

hopefully she recognizes Dems should go after Rural GA as well, otherwise she'll probably just barely lose the GE.

She has recognized this. Rural Georgia does not equal white.