UK General Discussion

[politicus]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

Different methodologies.

Yeah I know, we got YouGov as well. But which one is likely to reflect UKIP voting most accurately?

[You kip if you want to...]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

Different methodologies.

Yeah I know, we got YouGov as well. But which one is likely to reflect UKIP voting most accurately?

YouGov over Opinium and Survation a million times over. YouGov's still pretty crap though. ICM and Ipsos and the ones to watch.

[DC Al Fine]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

If the UKIP aren't spent by 2015, they may have the same fate as the Alliance did.

If UKIP's support is evenly spread out. How much support would they need to start winning seats?

[You kip if you want to...]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

Is YouGov biased against them?

If the UKIP aren't spent by 2015, they may have the same fate as the Alliance did.

If UKIP's support is evenly spread out. How much support would they need to start winning seats?

20-25% probably, but it really depends. National vote is only morally relevant in the UK anyway. They'd struggle on their current numbers, but it's a bit like the Greens or the LibDems or even the SNP and Plaid in that it's more about local organisation compared to Labour and the Tories.

Some in UKIP cried foul when the Greens won Brighton Pavilion on 1% of the vote in 2010 (and gained the council last year), but the Greens had put in the leg work for years to do that. Nowhere in the country can you say the same of UKIP and Caroline Lucas will, more likely than not, increase her currently tiny majority in 2015.

UKIP won 1 constituency last Thursday on a projected 25% of the national vote - Boston & Skegness. That'll be one of their main targets in 2015, but they need to transform last week's protest vote into real staying power to have any hope. (And it'd be bloody disgusting if we don't get PR in 2015-20, whoever is in power, if UKIP get 0 seats for 15-20% of the vote and the LibDems end up with 30-40 and another chance in government on 7-10%).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/09/tory-mp-stewart-jackson-expenses

Horrifically bad publicity there. What is it with Peterborough? I suppose it being in the middle of a giant swamp might mean the water table is poisoned or something.

[Silent Hunter]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/09/tory-mp-stewart-jackson-expenses

Horrifically bad publicity there. What is it with Peterborough? I suppose it being in the middle of a giant swamp might mean the water table is poisoned or something.

Can't say - the only time I've ever been there was going through it by train.

[YL]

UKIP won 1 constituency last Thursday on a projected 25% of the national vote - Boston & Skegness. That'll be one of their main targets in 2015, but they need to transform last week's protest vote into real staying power to have any hope.

There were a few more than that.  I haven't seen a list, and anyway you can't calculate exact figures in many places because divisions cross constituency boundaries, but it's pretty clear that UKIP carried three constituencies in Kent (South Thanet, North Thanet, Sittingbourne & Sheppey), one in Norfolk (Yarmouth) and one in Gloucestershire (Forest of Dean).  There may be some others where they only missed out because they didn't have candidates in some divisions; North East Cambridgeshire looks to me like it may be like that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Folkestone & Hythe as well, maybe? But perhaps a better question is how many they won comfortably; Boston & Skegness for sure, any others? One of the Thanets?

[You kip if you want to...]

David Cameron's voting against the Queen's speech. This is madness. "He's in office, but he's not in power" indeed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/10/david-cameron-european-union-referendum_n_3250666.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

[politicus]

David Cameron's voting against the Queen's speech. This is madness. "He's in office, but he's not in power" indeed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/10/david-cameron-european-union-referendum_n_3250666.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

Ludicrous.

[Phony Moderate]

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That's....an interesting way for him to put it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

David Cameron's voting against the Queen's speech. This is madness. "He's in office, but he's not in power" indeed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/10/david-cameron-european-union-referendum_n_3250666.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

That is absolutely absurd.

[You kip if you want to...]

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That's....an interesting way for him to put it.

Clegg should call his bluff and whip his party to vote against as well.

(If only...)


But seriously, this is dangerous precedent.

[You kip if you want to...]

Miliband rules out an EU referendum under Labour. A strategic blunder or calling the EU for the non-issue that it is?

[You kip if you want to...]

A Grandmother's killed herself, blaming her inability to pay the bedroom tax in her suicide note.

[DC Al Fine]

Miliband rules out an EU referendum under Labour. A strategic blunder or calling the EU for the non-issue that it is?

Strategic blunder but not a very big one. I think most people are voting UKIP over immigration anyways.

[You kip if you want to...]

Miliband rules out an EU referendum under Labour. A strategic blunder or calling the EU for the non-issue that it is?

Strategic blunder but not a very big one. I think most people are voting UKIP over immigration anyways.

I suppose if the Tories try to use it as a dividing line, it just makes them look like they're banging on about something nobody really cares about but them.

And it'll be easy to laugh off when Cameron votes the same way as Miliband, against the backbench amendment to have one this parliament.

[You kip if you want to...]

And more of Gove trying to coax backbenchers should Cameron hit the skids.

[Phony Moderate]

Surreal headline of the week:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/12/uk-coal-nationalised-ministers-fire-pensions

[You kip if you want to...]

The usual suspects of the Labour extremities to vote with the Tory rebels: Hoey, Field, Mitchell, McDonnell, etc.

[YL]

An ICM poll in the Grauniad says Lab 34 Con 28 UKIP 18 (!) LD 11.

ICM's methodology tends to dampen big swings since the last election, so this looks like an even wilder result than on a first glance.

[You kip if you want to...]

An ICM poll in the Grauniad says Lab 34 Con 28 UKIP 18 (!) LD 11.

ICM's methodology tends to dampen big swings since the last election, so this looks like an even wilder result than on a first glance.

ICM are usually very conservative (small 'c') with their UKIP shares as well! How long can this go on for? Seriously?

(Liberals haven't taken third in a poll since April 19th, just sayin'.)

[Leftbehind]

An ICM poll in the Grauniad says Lab 34 (-4) Con 28 (-4) UKIP 18 (+9) (!) LD 11 (-4).

ICM's methodology tends to dampen big swings since the last election, so this looks like an even wilder result than on a first glance.

Added changes. So a +3 for Others as well? Be interesting to see the cross-breaks.

[You kip if you want to...]

An ICM poll in the Grauniad says Lab 34 (-4) Con 28 (-4) UKIP 18 (+9) (!) LD 11 (-4).

ICM's methodology tends to dampen big swings since the last election, so this looks like an even wilder result than on a first glance.

Added changes. So a +3 for Others as well? Be interesting to see the cross-breaks.

Apparently, it's all to the BNP. If that's true, this is an outlier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22515470