UK General Discussion

[Silent Hunter]

The Tories cannot be happy about 30% - that's lower than they got in 1997!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would advise against taking ComRes even slightly seriously; I mean I'd say that anyway because they're awful, but they've just published three strikingly different polls within 48 hours...

[1] Look up what happened to Labour in 1968, the year the Tories won control of Sheffield City Council (they won Burngreave) and IIRC Labour didn't win a single ward in Birmingham.

That's right, yes. Most weren't even slightly close either. Elsewhere you had things like the Tories in Newcastle winning Scotswood, the Tories winning control of Hackney...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/29/leeds-council-bedroom-tax-solution

[Leftbehind]

Awesome.

I would advise against taking ComRes even slightly seriously; I mean I'd say that anyway because they're awful, but they've just published three strikingly different polls within 48 hours...

Think there's only been two IIRC - the recent telephone Westminster one and then the joint Euro/Westminster online poll, that turns out used a draconian 10/10 certainty to vote for the baffling Euro figures.

[Supersonic]

The Tories cannot be happy about 30% - that's lower than they got in 1997!

I'm happy. For me, it's the Labour lead that counts.

At the moment, it's historically weak especially considering the 'draconian cuts!11!' everyone goes on about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Moving away from political onanism for a moment: various rumours are circulating about the 'Honourable' Member for Portsmouth South.

[Silent Hunter]

Moving away from political onanism for a moment

You learn something new everyday... although I wasn't planning on another euphemism for that.

[Leftbehind]

Dunno if it's just me, but Anna Soubry reminds me of Thatcher (style, not substance).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Patrick Mercer has just resigned the Conservative whip. Apparently he's been caught up in some kind of lobbying scandal, the details of which are currently unknown.

For the record, Newark in its current incarnation is a very safe Tory seat. The pre-1983 version included the Dukeries and less agricultural territory (and was almost always Labour), the 1983-2005 version included Retford (and went Labour once).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems to be some kind of joint Panorama/Telegraph sting.

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting question over at Political Betting. Who'd take over from Ed should he fall short in 2015?

I think 2010 shows that it's not as simple as "Oh, it'll be Yvette, surely".

[Leftbehind]

Opinium: LAB 37%(nc), CON 26%(-1), UKIP 21%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1)

6% is the lowest I've ever seen them - 7 seems to be their absolute baseline with YouGov. This also had the Greens and SNP on 4%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But, you know, Opium.

[Phony Moderate]

There's a rather interesting story on the Daily Mail website right now.

[Leftbehind]

Apparently there's more implicated in corruption as well.

[You kip if you want to...]

Downing Street sex scandal!

[politicus]

Downing Street sex scandal!

Ever since the Profumo-affair British sex scandals have generally been boring stuff blown out of proportion by a sensationalist press. This seems to be some middle aged rumpy-pumpy among greyfaced bureaucrats. You guys are way behind the Americans in this area.

[afleitch]

So Ed Balls announces that Labour will stick to Tory spending targets if they win the next election. Always a joy to hear.

[Phony Moderate]

So Ed Balls announces that Labour will stick to Tory spending targets if they win the next election. Always a joy to hear.

A New Labour man for sure.

[Leftbehind]

Wonders of UK democracy. He's also dropped the principle of universalism. Blairite triangulation begins.

[You kip if you want to...]

God help us if any 2015 Labour government starts to be viewed like a sort've Hollande Anglais.

[Leftbehind]

Well one thing's for certain, we can no longer be confident that UKIP will be Alliance mark II (but for the Right), because Thatcher managed to satisfy and hold on to her voters by being sufficiently right-wing. Labour triangulating and disillusioning leftists will just let the Right straight back in (if it even ousts them in the first place), and so I've a horrible feeling those switching to UKIP will be richly rewarded by either a newly aligned radically-Thatcherite Tory party, or UKIP gaining more protest and becoming a credible vehicle itself.

[Silent Hunter]

This is one cut I support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The eternally colourful Lord Gilbert (once John Gilbert) has died aged 86. He was a minister in the last Wilson government, in the Callaghan government and in the Blair government (as a Lord) and MP for Dudley (then Dudley East) from 1970 until 1997. He had previously polled remarkably well as a Labour candidate in Ludlow in 1966 (presumably aided by the lack of a Liberal candidate and the fact that Madeley was in the seat back then) and had the misfortune of being the Labour candidate in the Dudley by-election of 1968. He caused a lot of trouble for the Thatcher government in the 1980s as a member of various select committees. He recently made the news for suggesting that the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan ought to be nuked.

Grauniad obit here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/03/lord-gilbert
Torygraph obit here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/10096849/Lord-Gilbert.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Ed Balls struggling to defend his announcement today to Paxo...