Alaska Absentee/Write-in/Provisional Count

[Meeker]

The grand finale of the 2010 election has begun in Alaska. More than 20,000 absentee and early votes are scheduled to be counted today. Write-in votes and provisional ballot counts are also supposed to start later this week. Post updates here as they come in.

(It'd be nice if this could be kept separate from the bulk stickied thread so coverage of other races doesn't get crowded out... pretty please mods? )

[Whacker77]

Before the election, Murkowski's people said they needed a 7 or 8 point lead to give her a cushion for disqualified write-in votes.  She's right on that number.  Also, the absentees should be pretty good for Miller.  I'm not about to say Miller wins, but I can see this race narrowing quite a bit.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It will be interesting just how many write-ins are valid and are for Murkowski. Based on the 13,000 lead, Murkowski is heavily favored of course, but we won't know for sure till 1) we know whether the absentees increase or decrease Miller's deficit (could go either way), 2) how many write ins are thrown out, and 3) how many write-ins are for Murko. Joe Miller appearently will have some write-ins as well and after criticism, the Lt. Governor has decided to count those for him, after initially saying he wouldn't. There will also be write-ins potentially for Scott McAdams. Not to mention 100 valid write-in candidates.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It will be interesting just how many write-ins are valid and are for Murkowski. Based on the 13,000 lead, Murkowski is heavily favored of course, but we won't know for sure till 1) we know whether the absentees increase or decrease Miller's deficit (could go either way), 2) how many write ins are thrown out, and 3) how many write-ins are for Murko. Joe Miller appearently will have some write-ins as well and after criticism, the Lt. Governor has decided to count those for him, after initially saying he wouldn't. There will also be write-ins potentially for Scott McAdams. Not to mention 100 valid write-in candidates.

I'd be willing to bet that three quarters of those write-in candidates didn't get a single vote. They're Miller voters who tried to f- up the system. I'd be stunned if Murkowski didn't win. Her lead may shrink by 1 or 2 points, but that's assuming a lot of voter error.

[tmthforu94]

Why do I get the feeling that Joe Miller is going to be a giant douche about this and that it won't be settled for 4-5 more months?

[Hash]

Why do I get the feeling that Joe Miller is going to be a giant douche about this and that it won't be settled for 4-5 more months?

Maybe because Joe Miller is a douche.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why do I get the feeling that Joe Miller is going to be a giant douche about this and that it won't be settled for 4-5 more months?

You aren't alone. Miller comes off as such a jackass it isn't even funny. I saw him on Huckabee's show this weekend and he basically said most of those write in ballots are probably for the flying spaghetti monster.

[Whacker77]

I would prefer the views Miller holds over the views of Murkowski, but his loss hurts Palin and I'm all for that.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin herself seems to have given up on Miller, btw:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2010/11/09/sarah-palin-has-given-up-on-joe-miller.aspx

[ag]

First results of the absentees included

Write-ins 85,834 (40.65%)
Miller (R) 73,309 (34.72%)
McAddams (D) 49,733 (23.55%)
Haase (L) 1,160 (0.55%)
Carter 751 (0.36%)
Gianoutsos 360 (0.17%)

Remind me - I don't recall what it was until now, but it seems Miller has cut the write-in lead a bit, hasn't he?

Update: Yep, according to Anchorage Daily News he's gained 914 votes relative to the write-ins.

[SvenssonRS]

Palin herself seems to have given up on Miller, btw:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2010/11/09/sarah-palin-has-given-up-on-joe-miller.aspx

Only because she's pissed off that he refused the idea of endorsing her for Pres. Which, frankly, was smart, because the country will go to hell in a handbasket if she's elected.

[ag]

Joementum! W/ 14000 absentee ballots counted, Miller has gained 1221 on the write-ins

Write-ins 88,044 (40.55%)
Miller (R) 75,826 (34.92%)
McAddams (D) 50,975 (23.47%)
Haase (L) 1,191 (0.55%)
Carter 764 (0.35%)
Gianoutsos 371 (0.17%)

Abotu 8000 more absentee ballots to be counted today, still more later.

[tpfkaw]

Anyone know what percent of Sekula-Gibbs's write-ins were disqualified in 2006?

[Meeker]

Anyone know what percent of Sekula-Gibbs's write-ins were disqualified in 2006?

I'm not sure off the top of my head, but that race was conducted entirely by electronic voting machine which makes things a bit different.

(Sekula-Gibbs was also a random nobody).

[Sam Spade]

Miller is getting closer - it's still a lot of write-ins to not be for Murkowski, of course.

Carter, Tim   NA   792   0.35%
Gianoutsos, Ted   NA   383   0.17%
Haase, Fredrick   LIB   1238   0.55%
McAdams, Scott T.DEM   52694   23.35%
Miller, Joe   REP   79492   35.23%
Write-in Votes      91049   40.35%

[ag]

Joementum grows! w/ 22,000 absentee and early ballots counted, Miller has picked up 1,882 votes on the write-ins so far. The write-in advantage is down to 11,557 votes.

Write-ins 91,049 (40.35%)
Miller (R) 79,492 (35.23%)
McAddams (D) 52,694 (23.35%)
Haase (L) 1,238 (0.55%)
Carter 792 (0.35%)
Gianoutsos 383 (0.17%)

They now say they will count another 7000 ballots today.

[tpfkaw]

Anyone know what percent of Sekula-Gibbs's write-ins were disqualified in 2006?

I'm not sure off the top of my head, but that race was conducted entirely by electronic voting machine which makes things a bit different.

(Sekula-Gibbs was also a random nobody).

The percent of Strom Thurmond's or especially Ernest Gruening's would also be helpful.

[Eraserhead]

I want McAdamsmentum.

[ag]

Further gain by Miller. The gap is down to 11,333 votes. McAddams is also up slightly

Write-ins 92,528 (40.21%)
Miller (R) 81,195 (35.28%)
McAddams (D) 53,950 (23.44%)
Haase (L) 1,254 (0.54%)
Carter 799 (0.35%)
Gianoutsos 391 (0.17%)

[Хahar 🤔]

Scottmentum!

[minionofmidas]

Tell me - are they also counting write-ins that forgot to fill the bubble - and if so, might there not be more of those than non-Murkowski write-ins?

As to Miller leading in absentees - utterly unsurprising. Goes with a dramatic late swing against him.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Something that should be remembered is that the military/absentee vote will not be counted until November 17th.

[Јas]

Miller Sues; Alaska Still Counts Misspelled ‘Murkowski’ - Wall Street Journal

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[Sam Spade]

IMO, Miller does have a valid argument based upon the actual text of the statute.

Alaska's court decisions are also pretty clear on this subject - voter intent is taken into account when interpreting the write-in statute.

Henceforth, the federal case.  I don't think he wins, btw - I suspect the feds defer to Alaska on this subject.  I'm just saying that this is not entirely a frivolous move, and is quite to be expected (i.e. before the counting of write-ins start).

The larger issue is that I don't see how 11,333 votes go away.  True, the military absentees should be in favor, but how many of those are there?  If it goes down to say 11,000 votes, then that means that close to 12% of the ballots must either be for someone else or invalidated.  I could certainly see 3%-5%, in fact I almost expect that, but 12%?  I think that's a tough road to go.

[ag]

Also, besides the military absentees, they will still count a lot of  rural absentees. Estimated 12,400 absentee ballots more (military, rural, whatever). And the rurals might go Murkowski: she is supposed to be popular there. Also, there are about 12,200 disputed ballots, some of which will also be counted, eventually. So, it's not just the military absentees left.