2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two thoughts on the Left's results:

- Nuclear energy dominated the election and the Left Party isn't preceived as having much of a position on the issue. This rendered the party irrelevant here. At least the CDU was perceived as something, even if it is being (formerly) pro-nuclear. So, basically what Lewis said.

- Both BaWü and RLP are traditionally seen as conservative states (despite the fact that RLP has been governed by the SPD for the past 16 years, but that's another issue to discuss). Bavaria aside, it was almost to be expected that these states are the toughest to crack for the Left. On the other hand, the Left won 6.4% in Hamburg last month, same result as three years before. (As a sidenote, the Greens also managed to win 24% in Baden-Württemberg because their leader happens to be a member of the Central Committee of German Catholics.)

[DL]

This has been the case for almost all elections in Germany.

Exit Polls normally always underestimate the CDU by 1% and overestimate the Greens by about 1%.

I didn't notice that with exit polls in state elections in Hamburg of Sachsen-Anhalt and i don't remember that happening in the last federal election. In fact the biggest exit poll snafus that I remember were in the 2001 and 2005 elections when the exit polls significantly OVER-estimated the CDU vote compared to the final results.

[muon2]

off topic:

no; it is not fearmongering. i live for 20 years in landshut, a town next to a nuclear power plant ('isar I'). there is not even an evacuation plan for the 60.000 inhabitants, because it is senseless in case of a nuclear accident.

A beautiful town, Landshut. I've been there three times over the last dozen years.

[Iannis]

Any explanation of why the exit polls (I guess they were exit polls) overestimated the left's victory by almost two points (48-43 instead of 47-44) ? I know there's always a margin of error but that seems a bit far of. People too ashamed to admit they still voted for CDU or FDP ?

yes, it's something common in allover the Western democracies. Especially when they are at opposition the left is "cooler" and perceived as more agreeable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would suggest that it's actually an urban myth.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of Left vs. Right in Baden-Württemberg:



The BW results are:

53.2% Left
46.7% Right

...

5 shades of Red: 50-55%, 55-60%, 60-65%, 65-70%, 70%+

2 shades of Blue: 50-55%, 55-60%

...

Freiburg II is the only district with more than 70% for the Left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just for the heck of it, I'm posting election.de's direct seat winner maps for Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.

Blue - CDU
Red - SPD
Pink - Left
Green - Green

Darker color: > 50%
Lighter color: < 50%

Hamburg:


Saxony-Anhalt:


Baden-Württemberg:


Rhineland-Palatinate:

[minionofmidas]

Hamburg is not really a direct seat winner map, as these were 3-5 member seats. :P

Marburg and Fulda results above confirmed on state website, which is still without a Gießen result. Hmmm.

Rüsselsheim
CDU 34.2 (+1.3) 15 (0) -1.4
SPD 33.4 (-8.6) 15 (-4) +1.1
Greens 19.0 (+10.2) 9 (+5) -0.8
Left 6.0 (+0.4) 3 (+1) -0.4
WiR 2.8 (+2.8) 1 (+1) +0.6
FDP 2.6 (-2.2) 1 (-1) +0.2
FNR 2.0 (+2.0) 1 (+1) +0.7
Liste Rüssel (5.8 / 3 seats in 2006) splintered into WiR and FNR.

Darmstadt
Greens 32.9 (+17.4) 23 (+12) -4.4
CDU 24.8 (-5.3) 18 (-3) +2.0
SPD 21.3 (-7.7) 15 (-6) +1.6
Uffbasse 6.5 (+0.2) 5 (0) +0.2
Left 3.9 (+1.8) 3 (+1) -0.2
UWIGA 3.5 (-2.5) 3 (-1) +0.3
FDP 3.2 (-3.6) 2 (-3) +0.6
Pirates 2.9 (+2.9) 2 (+2) -0.3

WASG (2.0 / 1 seat) and Die Frauen (1.0 / 1 seat) did not run. (Well duh, WASG and Left merged. Darmstadt was pretty much the only place they ever ran against each other anyways. Besides the obvious, ie Berlin 2006.) Not going to actually happen, but strictly speaking that's a 36-35 majority for the left, not including the SPD - UWIGA and Uffbasse are to the left of the SPD (in issue positions but not in vote base, in UWIGA's case).

Offenbach is still out. I haven't checked the city page to see how far they are.

Frankfurt is not quite entirely complete - one Bergen precinct's results are described as partial.
CDU 30.5 (-5.5) 28 (-6) -1.2
Greens 25.8 (+10.5) 24 (+10) -1.5
SPD 21.3 (-2.7) 20 (-2) +1.2
Left 5.4 (-1.2) 5 (-1) +0.1
FDP 3.9 (-2.6) 4 (-2) +0.3
FW 3.8 (+1.0) 4 (+1) +0.1
Pirates 1.9 (+1.9) 2 (+2) +0.1
FAG 1.4 (-2.4) 1 (-3) +0.1
Ökolinx 1.2 (0) 1 (0) 0
NPD 1.1 (-0.1) 1 (0) -0.2
EL 1.1 (+0.1) 1 (0) +0.8 yeah, that always happens.
REP 0.8 (-0.7) 1 (0) -0.1
Grey Panthers 0.4 (+0.4) 1 (+1) 0

Really close between - in order - Grey Panthers, a 29th CDU seat, and Wolff Holtz' outfit, also at 0.4. Might be still too early to party, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the Greens are indeed largest party on my Ortsbeirat; and even more importantly the quite rightwingish, quite idiot-dominated Grand Coalition has lost its majority. (Greens now 6, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left 2, FDP and FW 1 each.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But perhaps the more interesting - and more novel - line of thought is, when the Greens successfully take the SPD's place in Grand Coalitions, where does that leave the SPD? What are its options, besides hoping for a breakdown in CDU-Green relations? What does it stand for? How does it campaign? If the Left weren't firmly established yet, it might try to, as it were, be the Left, but now even that's not going to work - people would find the original more credible.
The Frankfurt situation leaves the SPD in a horrible trap, only partly of its own making. Its continued failures are not solely the result of the local SPD's undeniable incompetence.

Unless local politics is very different in Hesse than over here, the short-term answer is fairly obvious; shameless populist oppositionalism

Maybe it's 'just' a recent manifestation of a long term problem; something I read recently noted that while (as extreme examples) Labour and the SPÖ could/did blame electoral decline in the 1980s on the changing composition/structure of the working class (and the problem of adjusting to this), the tendency in the SPD was to worry about the changing composition/structure of big cities (and the problem of adjusting to this). Actually it may not be directly relevant at all, but it's interesting anyway.

[tpfkaw]

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If the Green fad doesn't pass, they'd most likely either die or become populist and anti-immigrant.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll, taken last week before the BW and RP elections:

33%    [-0.8] CDU/CSU
25%   [+2.0] SPD
21% [+10.3] Greens
  8%    [-3.9] Left
  5%    [-9.6] FDP
  8%   [+2.0] Others

Also:

For the first time in a very long time, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) is now the most trusted politician in Germany.

From a scale of 0-100, Steinmeier scores 56 points, with Merkel now second at 55 points.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i2Xh-RocU4-Kb7qE38iSXGxm3OYA?docId=CNG.27cea59062709c40272c12c3dceabffc.501

[minionofmidas]

I'd rather trust Wormy than either of that pair.

But perhaps the more interesting - and more novel - line of thought is, when the Greens successfully take the SPD's place in Grand Coalitions, where does that leave the SPD? What are its options, besides hoping for a breakdown in CDU-Green relations? What does it stand for? How does it campaign? If the Left weren't firmly established yet, it might try to, as it were, be the Left, but now even that's not going to work - people would find the original more credible.
The Frankfurt situation leaves the SPD in a horrible trap, only partly of its own making. Its continued failures are not solely the result of the local SPD's undeniable incompetence.

Unless local politics is very different in Hesse than over here, the short-term answer is fairly obvious; shameless populist oppositionalism

I think I covered that - "if the Left weren't..."

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Oh, quite, quite. Though it's not just the cities. The problem is spreading to the suburbs by now.

[minionofmidas]

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If the Green fad doesn't pass, they'd most likely either die or become populist and anti-immigrant.

The SPD as a party is not going to become anti-immigrant. That's quite out the window, given the way that whole debate is structured here. That is the CDU's part - and in modern, major cities where the CDU can't afford to do that (and includes people disgusted by that approach among its leadership), it's the part of dissident center-right lists like the FW here in Frankfurt.
Having got that out of the way... "old, populist, anti-immigrant" is not a bad characterization of the remnant SPD voters at all - we're talking those of the traditional SPD voters to whom neither the Greens nor the Left nor the CDU appeal, after all.
I noticed the kind of places where the SPD did better in the locals than in the 2009 federals. Very much bears that out. All the places with somewhat geriatric, somewhat comfortable estates outside the center of the city.

[minionofmidas]

Gießen result now confirmed.

Offenbach.
CDU 30.9 (-4.5) 22 (-3) +0.1
SPD 26.3 (-5.9) 19 (-4) +0.6
Greens 22.1 (+11.1) 16 (+8) -0.2
Left 5.6 (+0.3) 4 (0) -0.7
FDP 5.1 (-2.4) 3 (-2) +1.0
REP 3.4 (-0.6) 2 (-1) -0.3
FW 2.5 (-0.4) 2 (0) -0.1
Pirates 2.2 (+2.2) 2 (+2) -0.3
FNO 2.0 (+2.0) 1 (+1) 0
Animal Protection Party did not run (-1.7) 0 (-1)

10 out 21 district councils in, btw. (Tend to get counted after municipalities.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think I covered that - "if the Left weren't..."

LOL

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I might have some of that stuff (an interview or something) lurking around somewhere. I could go looking for it, rather than doing something productive (not that I'll do much of the latter today anyway; not well).

What's interesting though - although I suspect that this isn't more than slightly relevant to Frankfurt - is that they were able to win Hamburg in the old style (or something that looks close enough to it as makes no difference). Special circumstances, of course, but that's not the point; if certain popular theories about social change and electoral patterns are correct then that shouldn't have been possible (no exaggeration). Which links, vaguely, into something I've thought for a while; social and economic change is often used as an excuse for poor election results for social democratic parties, when the real issue (while related) is a little different.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt election site holding back 1 final precinct result in both city and Ortsbeiräte (well, one of those). And is the only thing officially still out. Ridic. I seem to recall them doing something similar last time. For several days.

Ortsbeirat seat distributions (for the three big parties, I cared who was ahead on votes. After that, I didn't.)
1 Greens 6, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left 2, FDP, FW 1 each
2 Greens 6, CDU 6, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
3 Greens 8, CDU 4, SPD 3, Left, FDP, FW, Ökolinx 1 each
4 Greens 7, CDU 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
5 CDU 6, Greens 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW, FAG 1 each
6 CDU 7, SPD 5, Greens 3, Left, FDP, FW, REP 1 each
7 CDU 5, SPD 5, Greens 4, Left 2, FDP, FW, REP 1 each
8 CDU 6, SPD 5, Greens 5, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
9 CDU 6, Greens 6, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
10 CDU 6, Greens 5, SPD 5, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
11 SPD 6, CDU 6, Greens 3, Left 2, FDP, FW 1 each
12 CDU 7, Greens 5, SPD 4, Left, FDP, FW 1 each
13 CDU 4, SPD 2, Greens 2, FW 1
14 CDU 3, Greens 3, SPD 2, FW 1
15 CDU 7, Greens 4, SPD 4, FW 2, FDP, NPD 1 each (not final)
16 CDU 6, Greens 4, WBE (the local FW-type list ) 4, SPD 3, Left, FW 1 each

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maps going quite well. I was tempted to troll and declare that no party under 5% should be included, but decided to include the two largest fringe parties as at least they were over 3%.

[minionofmidas]

Maps going quite well. I was tempted to troll and declare that no party under 5% should be included, but decided to include the two largest fringe parties as at least they were over 3%.

Probably best to include at least a "all other" map or somesuch.
Btw, the FAG vote south of the river did something funny. It's not just that Oberrad has replaced Sachsenhausen South as their strongest area. Within Sachsenhausen South - and Niederrad too - it held up well in some precincts while disappearing next door. Strength of individual activists? Brillante has his strongholds in Griesheim, of course.
But what really, really bewilders me is FW weakness in Zeilsheim and Sindlingen. That just makes no sense whatsoever.

[minionofmidas]

I thought about calculating the statewide final (districts and 5 cities) result, but it looks like work and the state will do it in a couple of days anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Oooh, the Rundschau tells me what's going on!

Doing routine random checks, they found huge amounts of valid ballots in the invalid pile in some precincts (election night count in Germany is traditionally done by the pollworkers, at the polling station - with local elections, that's only done for the unchanged ballots, though they also sort out the "clearly invalid" ballots - two straight-ticket boxes checked, additional comment by the voter, papers left blank). They've decided to do a complete recount of invalid ballots tomorrow. So, yeah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Slightly too late for that idea...



...still, I might do something about the situation later.

[minionofmidas]

With one exception, the winner map is utterly predictable - and with two exceptions, it is identical to that of the last two European elections. The predictable exception is the Gallus, where the minimally better SPD result meant she at least topped the poll. The less predictable exception is the SPD win in Hausen. Which is probably explained by the FW strength biting into the CDU vote. Which in turn is, alas, explained by the ugly campaign against this pretty new structure...




They have updated those two precincts by now btw. But they're still doing that recount tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

Here's a little list...

migrant background on the council. I'm only counting those with giveaway names. And I'm not counting non-standard stuff like English or French sounding names or whatever. Classical Gastarbeiter countries and beyond.

CDU 2/28 (Ezhar Cezairli, Turkish; Ilias Galanos, Greek)
Greens 5/24 (Hilime Arslaner, Onur Azcan, Turkish; Evanthia Triantafillidou, Greek; Nima Diallo, Guinean; Odette Barbosa de Lima, Brazilian I think - not sure if she should really be counted here.)
SPD 3/20 (Turgut Yüksel, Imren Ergindemir, Turkish; Eugenio Munoz del Rio, Spanish)
Left 1/5 (Merve Ayyildiz, Turkish)
EL 1/1 (Luigi Brillante, Italian)

Can't help but notice that two thirds of the Muslims on the city council are women (Well, if all the Turkishwomen describe themselves as Muslim. Ayyildiz is a Lesbian, after all.) as against 40% (35/87) of the remainder.

Ortsbeiräte (why not?)
CDU 3/89 (Mariano Franchi, Italian; Veljko Vuksanovic, Croatian; Zuzana Vitkova, whatever)
Greens 4/76 (Evanthia Triantafillidou*, Dimitrios Bakakis, Greek; Constantino Gianfrancesco, Mara Codona, Italian)
SPD 5/64 (Evlampios Betakis, Maria Ouzouni, Theodoros Petkos, Greek; Asim Khan, not sure what South Asian country; Rachid Rawas, Libanese)
Left 1/15 (Eyup Yilmaz, Turkish)

Much lower share. Nasty pattern in the Ortsbeiräte of putting the furrin names in the lower half of the SPD, Green, Left lists. Since Eva Triantafillidou was somewhat surprisingly elected to the city council, I don't know if she'll accept reelection to the 1st Ortsbeirat. It's legal to do and some people do it, though. Didn't include an SPD woman whose first name spelling betrays Polish birth but whose double-barreled surname isn't placeable - got to draw the line somewhere, else you might as well count the quite many Germans with Slavic or Italian-sounding or Latin or Greek surnames and German first names.

[minionofmidas]

Slightly too late for that idea...

...still, I might do something about the situation later.

One could do a simple "strongest other" map...

Pirates - Altstadt, Innenstadt, West End, Bockenheim, Ginnheim, Dornbusch, Eschersheim, Heddernheim, Kalbach, Nieder-Erlenbach, Frankfurter Berg, Berkersheim, Eckenheim, Bornheim, East End, Seckbach
FAG - Bergen-Enkheim, everything south of the river
Ökolinx - North End, Gutleut
EL - Gallus, Griesheim, Höchst, Unterliederbach, Rödelheim, Hausen, Preungesheim
Nazis (NPD) - Nied, Sossenheim, Sindlingen, Zeilsheim, Bonames, Nieder-Eschbach, Harheim
Other Nazis (REP) - Praunheim, Niederursel, Riederwald, Fechenheim