Murkowski to hold "campaign kickoff" tonight

[tpfkaw]

It's entirely unsurprising that one of if not the most corrupt Senator does not accept being beaten fair and square.  I hope she doesn't break 1% in November.

[cinyc]

I think more than anything, this is her trying to get back at Sarah Palin for screwing her over. And because of that, I kind of hope she wins. Murkowski was truly one of the more moderate voices in the Senate. That being said, I'll be fine with a Senator Miller in January.

Murkowski is the embodiment of everything that's wrong with American politics today - and an illustration of why a movement is needed to throw the bums out.  She inherited her seat from her father, who was one of the most incompetent governors in Alaskan history.  And she can't just gracefully step aside when the Republican primary voters told her to get lost - despite promising to do so before the primary.  She and other members of the political establishment think they are entitled to hold office because of who they are, forgetting that they are only there because of us in the first place.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think more than anything, this is her trying to get back at Sarah Palin for screwing her over. And because of that, I kind of hope she wins. Murkowski was truly one of the more moderate voices in the Senate. That being said, I'll be fine with a Senator Miller in January.

She is the O'Donnell of the moderate Republicans man. We need to cut the sleeze from both wings. Standing by her will only cause trouble for moderates who aren't ethically tainted.


At best she ends up like Crist in the 20's with the Dem near her, at worst, she ends up worse then her Father in 2006 primary. The later is for more likely. She is a write-in after-all.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

wow - what an interesting campaign season.

i bet a lot of Alaskans want their Federal $$. she might stand a chance.

Not as a write-in.

if she polls well, the write-in problem could be minimized. i don't think she'll win, but it seems like a possibility.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What? Bizarre.

Still, I think a well-publicized write-in campaign, like hers will most likely be, would be "almost as good" as being on the ballot. If people know, and people want to vote for her, they will. Write-in campaigns are daunting because getting information out there about them is hard. As a sitting senator,  a write-in would get her almost as many votes as a regular campaign.

[Alcon]

With such a difficultly-spelled name, it brings up the question of whether they'll accept write-ins of common variations, such as Lisa Murowski, Liz Murkowski, and Lisa Draculac**nt Murkowski.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, Sekula-Gibbs managed 42% of the vote on a write-in campaign in that TX-22 race a few years ago, so I wouldn't dismiss Murkowski's chances of at least becoming a significant spoiler candidate.  But then, I'm not even really sure which side she'd be a spoiler for.  Is she going to stick to the center, run to the right, go all Charlie Crist and run to become the de facto Democrat in the race, or what?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Could she split off enough votes to give Scott Adams a win?

[SPC]

Well, Sekula-Gibbs managed 42% of the vote on a write-in campaign in that TX-22 race a few years ago, so I wouldn't dismiss Murkowski's chances of at least becoming a significant spoiler candidate.  But then, I'm not even really sure which side she'd be a spoiler for.  Is she going to stick to the center, run to the right, go all Charlie Crist and run to become the de facto Democrat in the race, or what?

Intrade price movement since the announcement seems to think that she might split the Republican vote. However, since the PPP poll from last month showed that McAdams' support evaporated to the 20s when Murkowski was trying to run as a Libertarian, there is also reason to believe she may split the Democratic vote. In my opinion, I suspect that she will have no real effect and will perform about as well as Andrew Halcro in the 2006 election (with Miller performing similarly to Palin)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Could she split off enough votes to give Scott Adams a win?

Early polling showed this would be a mirror of Florida: Murkowski would take enough votes from the Democrat to push him into third.

[Tender Branson]

How will pollsters ask their questions now in this race ?

If they ask: For which candidate will you vote on Nov. 2 ? McAdams, the Democrat ? Miller, the Republican ? Or Murkowski, the write-in candidate ?

Isn´t that overstating Murkowski`s support, because a write-in will probably never get as much support as a candidate that is really on the ballot ?

Or will pollsters only include McAdams and Miller in their poll questions and include Murkowski only if people name her voluntary ?

...

Second question: How do we add the upcoming polls to the database ?

I guess we´ll have to add the 3-way polls, because Murkowski is a very credible GE candidate, even though it´s only a write-in campaign.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think more than anything, this is her trying to get back at Sarah Palin for screwing her over. And because of that, I kind of hope she wins. Murkowski was truly one of the more moderate voices in the Senate. That being said, I'll be fine with a Senator Miller in January.

Murkowski is the embodiment of everything that's wrong with American politics today - and an illustration of why a movement is needed to throw the bums out.  She inherited her seat from her father, who was one of the most incompetent governors in Alaskan history.  And she can't just gracefully step aside when the Republican primary voters told her to get lost - despite promising to do so before the primary.  She and other members of the political establishment think they are entitled to hold office because of who they are, forgetting that they are only there because of us in the first place.

Yeah, I don't see how anyone could like Murkowski.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Murk is no moderate; she's only moderate by today's crazy right-wing Republican standards.

I guess this is one argument in favor of the top-two primary. If candidates decide to keep running even after winning primaries, what's the point of having primaries?

[Meeker]

Murk is no moderate; she's only moderate by today's crazy right-wing Republican standards.

I guess this is one argument in favor of the top-two primary. If candidates decide to keep running even after winning primaries, what's the point of having primaries?

The other solution is just banning candidates who lose in the primary from being write-in candidates.

With such a difficultly-spelled name, it brings up the question of whether they'll accept write-ins of common variations, such as Lisa Murowski, Liz Murkowski, and Lisa Draculac**nt Murkowski.

Indeed, so long as election officials can figure out voter intent it'll be counted. Voters do have to make sure to fill in the bubble though.

[tpfkaw]

Or to make the write-in deadline before the primary.

[Torie]

With such a difficultly-spelled name, it brings up the question of whether they'll accept write-ins of common variations, such as Lisa Murowski, Liz Murkowski, and Lisa Draculac**nt Murkowski.

538 addresses your question Alcon, and says the Alaska secretary of state will count misspellings. As an added bonus, 538 thinks Murkowski can win as a write in candidate. I don't however, and it points up, that sometimes the black box can generate screwy projections.  Of course, the next poll might show 538 is a genius, and I am a dumb, but whatever.

[Meeker]

In a mildly humorous parallel to the other Republican Senate candidate making news this week, Christine O'Donnell back in 2006 did exactly what Murkowski is doing now. She received 4% of the vote as a write-in during the general election after losing the Republican primary: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14268.html

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well there goes another seat we should've won.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Well there goes another seat we should've won.

Joe Miller will win this seat.

[minionofmidas]

I guess this is one argument in favor of the top-two primary. If candidates decide to keep running even after winning primaries, what's the point of having primaries?

I suppose you meant "lose", but the answer is that the point is to pretend that seats are truly democratically filled.
Which, given how much running on your own coffers - and in two elections in a single year, to boot - costs, is pretty obvious garbage.

[President Mitt]

I don't get any of the sympathy for Murkowski, even from the moderates from this board. She was a crappy Senator, and I don't really feel bad for her losing. Joe Miller at least looks like he may challenge the Military-Industrial complex from what I've heard.

[Badger]

I don't get any of the sympathy for Murkowski, even from the moderates from this board. She was a crappy Senator, and I don't really feel bad for her losing. Joe Miller at least looks like he may challenge the Military-Industrial complex from what I've heard.

Really? Do you know how many military bases Alaska has? (Hint: an assload)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I don't get any of the sympathy for Murkowski, even from the moderates from this board. She was a crappy Senator, and I don't really feel bad for her losing. Joe Miller at least looks like he may challenge the Military-Industrial complex from what I've heard.

Actually out of all of the distasteful occurrences in recent GOP primaries, this one I could actually stomach.  I am not happy about the way she was appointed by daddy to be a Senator.  That being said, she turned out to be a good member of the Senate and at least she is not an extremist.

[Tender Branson]

How will pollsters ask their questions now in this race ?

If they ask: For which candidate will you vote on Nov. 2 ? McAdams, the Democrat ? Miller, the Republican ? Or Murkowski, the write-in candidate ?

Isn´t that overstating Murkowski`s support, because a write-in will probably never get as much support as a candidate that is really on the ballot ?

Or will pollsters only include McAdams and Miller in their poll questions and include Murkowski only if people name her voluntary ?

...

Second question: How do we add the upcoming polls to the database ?

I guess we´ll have to add the 3-way polls, because Murkowski is a very credible GE candidate, even though it´s only a write-in campaign.

I have found what PPP will do:

Prob will say "Will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams or Republican Joe Miller, or will you write in Lisa Murkowski?"

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/24787974310

[Sam Spade]

Regardless of how they word it, the polls will suck and underestimate Republican votes, as per usual in Alaska.