Illinois Primary Thread

[Meeker]

I wonder if the GOP can actually beat the Dem in the gubernatorial race...

Considering you guys lost to Rod Blagojevich by double-digits, I wouldn't hold your breath.

Horrible person, good campaigner, and, in the case of 2006, no oxygen for Republicans in Democratic strongholds....Now, with an incumbent?

I can't tell what point you're trying to make.

EDIT: I should clarify that obviously the 2006 and 2010 races are different. I just like to bring up the fact that the GOP still managed to lose to Blago.

[cinyc]

With the AP numbers having Brady up by 2096 and DuPage netting Dillard another 217, if the rest of Suburban Cook turns out and votes like what's in (it probably won't), Dillard will need to make up about 1190 votes from what's out in Chicago.

Are there even 1190 Republicans in Chicago?  One of the last Republicans to run for mayor before the race became nonpartisan was a clown.  Literally.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

GOP Senate Primary:

Kirk = Red
Hughes = Blue
Lowery = Green

[Shilly]

It seems Don has beat me in posting maps, but I have percentages, so there.

[ill ind]

6 more precincts in from Cook:

Dillard 7
Brady 1

Most of the city precincts will look like this.  It isn't enough to get Dillard over the top I don't think.

Ill Ind

[muon2]

Brady adopted the same strategy this time as he did 4 years ago.  Ignore Chicago and the collar counties and get in on the downstate vote.  Appears to have worked better this time around.

Ill_Ind

When you only need 21% to win, it can certainly work...

And Brady wasn't faced with an Oberweis who spent a lot of money downstate in 2006.

[ill ind]

Still, I'm quite suprised by his showing.  The polls didn't seem to pick this up.

This is our first Oberweis free election since 1996 isn't it?

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

Oh and by the way Muon

Are you gearing up to run for Hultgren's State Senate seat should he win in November?

Ill Ind

[muon2]

Oh and by the way Muon

Are you gearing up to run for Hultgren's State Senate seat should he win in November?

Ill Ind

I just returned from the Hultgren party. If Hultgren wins in November the remaining two years on his state Sen term will be filled by appointment. The chair of the DuPage GOP will control the weighted vote for that appointment.

[ill ind]

So then no special election.

Aren't they doing a special down in Senate 51 for a 2 year term to replace Watson?  What are the rules on that?

Ill_Ind

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It seems Don has beat me in posting maps, but I have percentages, so there.

Nice

How did you do the percentage maps so quickly?

[cinyc]

6 more precincts in from Cook:

Dillard 7
Brady 1

Most of the city precincts will look like this.  It isn't enough to get Dillard over the top I don't think.

Ill Ind

My straight-line projection has Dillard losing by about 1,165.  It's Missing DuPage + Straight-line Suburban Cook projection + Straight line Chicago projection.

Straight line is not the most accurate way to project (I'd weight by missing Suburban Cook town if I had the relative registration %) - but it's the best I can do with the limited historic Illinois information I have.

[Shilly]

Nice

How did you do the percentage maps so quickly?

I just filled them in as the night went along.

[Lief 🗽]

It really shows how overwhelming Chicago is over Illinois elections that Brady dominates almost the entire rest of the state and still only gets 20% in the Republican primary.

[cinyc]

It really shows how overwhelming Chicago is over Illinois elections that Brady dominates almost the entire rest of the state and still only gets 20% in the Republican primary.

ChicagoLAND, not Chicago.  If my projections hold, there will be about 7,000 Chicago votes cast for the two leading candidates for Governor in the Republican Primary.  I haven't done the math for the primary as a whole.

[Sewer]

the creationist is winning.

[muon2]

So then no special election.

Aren't they doing a special down in Senate 51 for a 2 year term to replace Watson?  What are the rules on that?

Ill_Ind

Watson resigned right after the 2008 election. That was early enough to trigger an election to fill the remaining two years in the 2010 cycle. IL has no special elections for the legislature, except at regular general elections.

[ill ind]

In an Illinois Democratic primary, the rough figure is that 2/3 of the vote comes out of Cook County.

I do not know the figures for the GOP, but bet that Cook and the 6 collars are at least 50% of it.

Ill_Ind

[Meeker]

AP needs to grow a pair and call these things. I'm done for the night.

[ill ind]

So out of the 203 precincts in Cook County remaining:

64 are in CD 1
32 are in CD 2
41 are in CD 7

The GOP votes out of all those precincts will be pretty negligable.

That leaves a possible 66 remaing precincts where there are 'real' GOP votes.

Ill_Ind

[cinyc]

So out of the 203 precincts in Cook County remaining:

64 are in CD 1
32 are in CD 2
41 are in CD 7

The GOP votes out of all those precincts will be pretty negligable.

That leaves a possible 66 remaing precincts where there are 'real' GOP votes.

Ill_Ind

60 are in Suburban Cook
143 in Chicago

The Suburban Cook precincts that came in recently have been hitting heavier total vote-wise than those that were already in - about 2.4 times better.  The 2-person Dillard% is more or less the same as the rest of the county.

Straight-line projection now predicts Brady by a 1100ish vote advantage. If  total votes cast in the remaining precincts continues to be better than average, the projection will overestimate the margin.

[muon2]

AP needs to grow a pair and call these things. I'm done for the night.

I don't think these races are going to be called for some time. The last few precincts can take hours to come in. However, I'm also going to stop for some rest, and I'll rejoin things later this morning.

[ill ind]

9 more came in

Obviously city

Dillard 11
Brady 1

Most of the city stuff is going to turn in totals like this.

Ill_Ind

[cinyc]

9 more came in

Obviously city

Dillard 11
Brady 1

Most of the city stuff is going to turn in totals like this.

Ill_Ind

What's left right now is:
122 Chicago
36 Suburban Cook
 
22% in Thornton; 11% in Rich
(Total missing: Bloom 1; Bremen 3; Calumet 1; Cicero 1; Evanston 2; Lyons 2; Maine 1; Niles 2; Oak Park 1; Orland 1; Palatine 2; Proviso 2; Rich 4; Schaumburg 1; Stickney 1; Thornton 8; Worth 3)

1 St. Clair (Village of Caseyville)

By my count, Brady is up by 1,477, and projected to win by about 1,000.  The missing St. Clair precinct should be fairly marginal, slight advantage to Brady.

[cinyc]

Something changed in the numbers to make the GOP Governors' race much closer.  Whatever it was wasn't in Cook County:

Brady 154,629 (20%)
Dillard 154,119 (20%)
McKenna 146,568 (19%)
Brady +510

Projection is now Brady +175.

What's out is:
94 Chicago
24 Suburban Cook
(Bloom 1; Bremen 2; Cicero 1; Evanston 1; Lyons 1; Maine 1; Niles 2; Oak Park 1; Orland 1; Palatine 2; Proviso 1; Schaumburg 1; Stickney 1; Thornton 5; Worth 3)
1 St. Clair (Caseyville)

According to the Cook County Clerk's website, the rest of Suburban Cook won't be counted until 9AM at the County Clerk's warehouse, to allow for public viewing.  Chicago results are still trickling in.